MNI Global Week Ahead - ECB, NFPs & Powell To Name Just A Few
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
MONDAY - Eurozone Flash February Inflation and Q4 Final GDP
Monday will see February's flash round of Eurozone HICP. In the run-up to the release, we've already seen country-wide data last week including from Spain (2.9% Y/Y vs 2.9% consensus), France (0.9% vs 1.1% cons), Italy (1.7% vs 1.8% cons), and Germany (2.8% vs 2.7% cons), while the Netherlands is scheduled for Monday 05:30 GMT (3.2% cons). The national data so far leaves some downside risks to the Eurozone-wide print - which, any way, should not impact market pricing for the ECB's upcoming March 6 decision, with a 25bp fully embedded into analyst (and presumably policymaker) consensus. However, on services inflation, which has been notably persistent since late 2023, some progress could be observed across the main countries, and that has the potential to shape ECB consensus for decisions later out this year.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY - Next Trump Tariff Deadline With US ISM Surveys Either Side
Trade policy is likely in focus early in the week ahead with Trump’s Mar 4 deadline for an additional 10% tariffs on China (for 20% total) and the imposition of the delayed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. US Treasury Sec Bessent offered a potential offramp here, saying Friday afternoon the US wants to see Canada and Mexico match tariffs on China. Whilst following through with that could see temporary de-escalation in US trade tensions with Canada and Mexico, it would likely stoke greater likelihood of China retaliation and/or further fiscal support. It’s bookended by ISM manufacturing (Mon) and services (Wed) reports, watched to see whether sharp increases in manufacturing prices paid seen in other surveys first show up in this broader measure and whether there is sign of spillover to services.
WEDNESDAY - Australia Q4 GDP
Q4 Australian GDP is due on Wednesday, March 5 but a number of key inputs will be released before then. The net export and public demand contributions print on March 4 and the change in inventories on March 3. The RBA noted at its February meeting that “there has been continued subdued growth in private demand”. Private investment looks like it was weak in Q4 but private consumption likely picked up, while public demand will probably post another solid rise. The RBA forecast Q4 GDP to rise 1.1% y/y in its February projection update up from Q3's 0.8% y/y.
THURSDAY - ECB Decision
The ECB is unanimously expected to cut rates by 25bps for the fifth consecutive meeting on Thursday, with markets fully pricing such a decision. More interest will be in the policy statement guidance and the updated March projections, with markets looking to assess the plausibility of sequential cuts to 2% by June. The ECB Policy Team's latest sources piece suggested the ECB may tweak its reference to policy rates being restrictive, possibly pointing to the need to closely monitor the degree of restriction. Although sources expect the ECB to revise its 2025 inflation projections a touch higher due to a stronger-than-expected start to the year for energy prices, this is not likely to prompt a meaningful market reaction, with crude oil and natural gas futures now off recent highs. Tariff-related growth concerns may not be reflected in the baseline projections, but will likely form a key part of the balance of risks in the press conference.
FRIDAY - US Labour Market Report and Fed's Powell
The main US data release of the week comes on Friday though, with the nonfarm payrolls report for February. The January report saw a modest miss for nonfarm payrolls but it was more than offset by a robust two-month net revision along with a smaller than expected benchmark revision. Further, the unemployment rate again surprised lower at 4.0% for its lowest since May 2024 in a further step away from the 4.3% the median FOMC member forecast for 4Q25 in the December SEP. Early days for the Bloomberg survey see nonfarm payrolls growth at a seasonally adjusted 155k in February and for the unemployment rate to hold at that lower 4.0%. Note that the nature of the DOGE “deferred resignation program”, with some 77k federal employees accepting the offer, shouldn’t see any direct impact on payrolls growth (in the establishment survey) until the October report as workers will remain on the payroll in the interim. One area where the direct impact could show however is the household survey. Assuming those who accepted the offer are treated as equivalent to a furloughed worker, they’ll register as unemployed. A word of caution though, it’s a much more volatile survey, with a 90% confidence level of +-600k for employment vs +-136k for payrolls. Note that post-payrolls Fedspeak sees a notable addition this time, with Fed Chair Powell set to talk on the economic outlook with both text and Q&A, starting at 1230ET. Data and tariff deliberations should still set the tone, but at this juncture we wouldn’t be surprised to see a continued call for patience in rate cut expectations considering dovish repricing seen over the past week. This is a theme that could be seen from other notable Fedspeakers throughout the week, including permanent voters Williams, Waller and Kugler.
FRIDAY - Eurozone Flash February Inflation and Q4 Final GDP
Final Q4 GDP on Friday is expected to confirm quarterly growth at 0.1% Q/Q, a touch below the ECB's December projection of 0.2% While unlikely to be a market mover intraday, two areas of the report will be of interest. First, the GDP expenditure breakdown. The ECB's January accounts suggested: "private consumption growth had probably slowed in the fourth quarter amid subdued consumer confidence and heightened uncertainty". Meanwhile "housing investment had not yet picked up and there were no signs of an imminent expansion in business investment". Second is the income breakdown, specifically developments in compensation per employee and overall unit labour cost growth. The ECB's December projections see compensation per employee growth at 4.2% Y/Y (vs 4.4% in Q3), though this may be revised in the March projections released the day prior. Indicators such as the ECB negotiated wages and the Indeed Wage Tracker suggest pay growth is easing, but the overall impact on unit labour costs will depend on productivity developments.
Emerging Markets
SATURDAY / MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - China February PMIs
China’s February PMIs are projected to show a distorted view of manufacturing and services given the Lunar New Year holidays that led into the start of the month. First up will see the release of the Official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs which give a snapshot of state owned enterprises. In March 2023, the Official Manufacturing PMI slipped into contraction (i.e. below 50) and continued to bounce between 49.1 and the occasional expansion. The reading for January was 49.1 and market surveys (despite the holiday interruptions) are for a modest expansion at 50.1. The Services PMI is forecast to expand to 50.6. Later in the week Caixin PMIs are released. Caixin PMI’s focus on the Private Sector, which whilst not in significant expansion has maintained a modest above 50 result in recent months. Current forecasts for February are to increase to 50.6 from 50.1 for Manufacturing, and Caixin PMI services expected to continue to be strong, in line with the January result of 51.0
THURSDAY - BNM Decision (Malaysia)
The Bank Negara Malaysia (“BNM”) meets on the 6th with limited expectations for a move in rates. Only this week the Governor of the BNM spoke saying “Malaysia is expected to record steady growth going into 2025 despite the challenging global environment.” Final year GDP growth for 2024 came in at 5.1% and their January Policy Meeting Release described inflation as ‘manageable’ with excessive domestic demand pressures easing alongside a forecast for moderating commodity prices. With their projection for GDP growth this year at 4.5% to 5.5% the BNM has no immediate pressure to cut rates like their regional peers and we anticipate they will remain on hold again.
THURSDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)
While inflation data for January came in above expectations, the CBRT is still generally expected to maintain its 250bp/meeting rate cut pace on Thursday. Further ahead, some analysts are anticipating smaller-sized reductions in the second half of the year due to slower disinflation, while the central bank has recently revised its year-end inflation forecast to 24% from 21%.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 01/03/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/03/2025 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 03/03/2025 | 2200/0900 | ** |  AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/03/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 03/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | AU | Business Indicators | |
| 03/03/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 03/03/2025 | 0700/0200 | * |  TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/03/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/03/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/03/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/03/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | IT | Deficit to GDP 2024/ GDP Y/Y | |
| 03/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 03/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
| 03/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 03/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) |
| 03/03/2025 | - | *** |  US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 03/03/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 03/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 03/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 03/03/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 03/03/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 03/03/2025 | 1735/1235 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 04/03/2025 | 2330/0830 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 04/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 04/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | AU | RBA Meeting Minutes | |
| 04/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | AU | Balance of Payments: Current Account | |
| 04/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade |
| 04/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 04/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment |
| 04/03/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 04/03/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 04/03/2025 | 1920/1420 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 05/03/2025 | 2200/0900 | * | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI |
| 05/03/2025 | 2200/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI |
| 05/03/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI |
| 05/03/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI |
| 05/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | Quarterly GDP |
| 05/03/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Services PMI |
| 05/03/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI |
| 05/03/2025 | 0730/0830 | *** |  CH | CPI |
| 05/03/2025 | 0745/0845 | * | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/03/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/03/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/03/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/03/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/03/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/03/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/03/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/03/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | IT | GDP (f) |
| 05/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 05/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
| 05/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | PPI |
| 05/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | * | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 05/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 05/03/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 05/03/2025 | 1315/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 05/03/2025 | 1430/1430 | GB | TSC: Bailey/Pill/Taylor/Greene | |
| 05/03/2025 | 1430/1430 | GB | Greene annual report | |
| 05/03/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
| 05/03/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
| 05/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 05/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 05/03/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 05/03/2025 | 1900/1400 | US | Fed Beige Book | |
| 05/03/2025 | 2315/1815 | US | New York Fed's Roberto Perli | |
| 06/03/2025 | - | EU | European Central Bank Meeting | |
| 06/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals |
| 06/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance |
| 06/03/2025 | 0645/0745 | ** | CH | Unemployment |
| 06/03/2025 | 0700/0800 |  SE | Flash CPI | |
| 06/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | GB | Decision Maker Panel data | |
| 06/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Retail Sales |
| 06/03/2025 | 1100/0600 | *** | TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 06/03/2025 | 1315/1415 | *** | EU | ECB Deposit Rate |
| 06/03/2025 | 1315/1415 | *** | EU | ECB Main Refi Rate |
| 06/03/2025 | 1315/1415 | *** | EU | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
| 06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** |  CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 06/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Non-Farm Productivity (f) |
| 06/03/2025 | 1345/1445 | EU | ECB Press conference post Governing council meeting | |
| 06/03/2025 | 1345/0845 | US | Philly Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 06/03/2025 | 1445/1545 | EU | Publication of ECB Staff macroeconomic projections | |
| 06/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 06/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 06/03/2025 | 1515/1615 | EU | ECB Podcast: Lagarde presents latest MonPol decision | |
| 06/03/2025 | 1515/1615 | EU | Lagarde video message at Women's Forum event | |
| 06/03/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 06/03/2025 | 0000/1900 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 07/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 07/03/2025 | 0745/0845 | * | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 07/03/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** | ES | Industrial Production |
| 07/03/2025 | 0930/1030 | EU | Lagarde Address at ECB International Women's Day 2025 conf | |
| 07/03/2025 | 0940/1040 | EU | ECB International Women's Day conf. incl. Lagarde, Nagel, Panetta | |
| 07/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | GDP (final) |
| 07/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Employment |
| 07/03/2025 | - | *** | CN | Trade |
| 07/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 07/03/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 07/03/2025 | 1500/1500 | GB | BOE's Mann lecture at RBNZ on 'holding anchor' | |
| 07/03/2025 | 1545/1045 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 07/03/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 07/03/2025 | 2000/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit |
NB: Fed Chair Powell should show on Mar 7 at 1230ET, giving a keynote speech on the economic outlook including both text and Q&A.
