MNI Gilt Week Ahead - 7 April 2026

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• UK markets continue to trade mostly on external events and with no major data releases this week (outside of the final PMI print from this morning), no scheduled MPC members speaking and parliament on Recess and then in a pre- local/Scottish/Welsh election policy purdah that external focus is unlikely to change this week.
• The main domestic development last week was Governor Bailey’s interview with Reuters in which he sounded some way away from being in a position where he would contemplate voting for a rate rise as soon as April, saying that "(the market)'s still pricing us to raise rates. I would still say that is a judgment markets have to make but I think they're getting ahead of themselves." He also noted that "Of course, we have to deal with the shocks that come our way. But our remit is very clear on this that ... we have to do so in a way that ... causes the least damage in terms of activity in the economy and in terms of jobs."
• We also think that last week’s announcement that the DMP and Agents’ Surveys will be on a new publication schedule is significant, however. This means that there will be much less of a data dump on the day of an MPC policy decision and market participants will be able to prepare and position based on more of the information that the MPC will be using in their decision making process. It also means that we will have a release of both to come ahead of the April MPC policy decision. Governor Bailey referenced conversations he was having with businesses and noted that "Businesses consistently say to me that they're operating in a context of an absence of pricing power." This seems to be a key theme that will be expected in the Agents’ survey; if it does it makes a near-term hike less pressing. We also think that the DMP survey gives a much better indication of the extent that prices will be expected to rise in the near future than other measures such as the PMI survey (with the latter focusing more on breadth than on the scale of price increases).
• Both the Agents’ survey and the DMP will be released on Friday 24 April, the day after the flash PMIs are due. This is also the same week in which we will receive labour market data (released on the Tuesday) and March inflation data (released on the Wednesday). This week will also see the release of public finance data which will include the cash-based accounting metrics for the FY25/26 (due on the Thursday). This will almost certainly be accompanied on the day by an update to the DMO’s issuance remit to take into account the funding position at the end of the previous fiscal year. Normally this is a little tweak but there is a precedent that this issuance update can also be used to change the funding plan for the year more strategically. April 2025 saw an increase in planned bill issuance (GBP5bln increase) short gilt issuance (GBP5.6bln) and unallocated gilt issuance (GBP4.7bln) alongside a reduction in long-dated issuance (GBP10.4bln). These changes were based on a GBP4.9bln increase in funding requirements and overall led to a decrease in planned gilt sales of GBP0.1bln.