MNI: FRANCE MAR MANUF SENTIMENT AT 102

Mar-21 07:45



  • MNI: FRANCE MAR MANUF SENTIMENT AT 102

Historical bullets

STIR: Implied SONIA Rates Little Changed To A Touch Lower, TSC Eyed

Feb-20 07:44

Core global FI markets have ticked away from yesterday’s low, leaving SONIA futures running flat to +3.5 through the blues.

  • BoE-dated OIS contracts are flat to 2bp softer alongside the bid in the wider core global FI, although the strip still shows less than 3x 25bp cuts through ’24.
  • Local headline flow has been muted.
  • Tuesday's local docket will be headline by a TSC appearance from BoE's Bailey, Broadbent, Dhingra & Greene.
  • Most of that group’s monetary policy views are well-defined, while Deputy Governor Broadbent is unlikely to stray too far from the central BoE view.
BoE Meeting SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-24 5.199 +1.1
May-24 5.147 -4.1
Jun-24 5.068 -12.0
Aug-24 4.916 -27.2
Sep-24 4.795 -39.3
Nov-24 4.627 -56.1
Dec-24 4.500 -68.9

USD: Leaning in the green

Feb-20 07:34
  • Very little change for the Dollar and G10 FX, with the Greenback leaning on the front foot, but pair/crosses are overall in tight ranges, EURUSD in 19 pips, Cable 19 pips, AUDUSD 20 pips.
  • The Yen was and is again the worst early performer, although the Kiwi has now caught up, both down ~0.15% going into the European session.
  • EURJPY is testing Yesterday's high, also the highest print since late November.
  • Further upside momentum past 162.04, opens to 162.25 High Nov 29 next for the EURJPY.

BUNDS: Heavy early supply

Feb-20 07:20
  • Very little changed for Bund and despite a tiny small gap higher, the 10yr Yield is still closer to its highest level since the start of December.
  • Risk in futures remains to the downside, with support still eyed circa 132.58, followed by ~131.90 (2.50% in Yield).
  • Resistance will at 133.15, Yesterday's high.
  • There's no real tier 1 data for the session, ECB releases current account and Publishes Euro-Area Indicator of negotiated Wage rates.
  • SUPPLY: Heavy supply with UK £1.75bn 2063 (equates to 32.3k Gilt) should weigh, German €5bn 2yr Schatz (equates to 54.1k Schatz) should weigh, Finland 2029, 2033 (won't impact Bonds).
  • SYNDICATION: EU 10yr Benchmark.
  • SPEAKERS: BoE Bailey, Broadbent, Dhingra, Greene testify.