MNI: FRANCE JUL MANUF SENTIMENT AT 95
Jul-25 06:45
- MNI: FRANCE JUL MANUF SENTIMENT AT 95
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USD: A red start for the Dollar
Jun-25 06:33
- A red start for the Dollar, down against the Majors, nothing big, the Yen is leading in G10s, was up 0.11% pre EU Cash Govie open and is still up 0.11% post Cash open.
- Despite the pullback off the 160.00 handle on likely profit taking, the Yen remains at its worst level against most currencies.
- USDJPY still trades closer to Yesterday's mid range, and market participants will still be eyeing the 160.17 level, April high, and the highest printed level since 1990.
- While the Dollar is off its best level, the AUD still trades close to Yesterday's printed high of 106.376 in AUDJPY, some the highest levels since 2007.
- Upside target is still unchanged at the 2007 double top circa 107.873.
STIR: 44bp Of ’24 ECB Cuts Priced; Schnabel Downplays ECB-Fed Policy Divergence
Jun-25 06:32
Euribor futures are +0.5 to +2.0 through the blues, comfortably within recent ranges.
- ECB-dated OIS continues to show a ~70% implied probability of a 25bp rate cut through the September meeting, while 44bps of easing is priced through year-end.
- In a panel appearance yesterday afternoon, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel said she was “not so concerned” at the prospect of significant Euro-area/US policy divergence, citing similarities in inflation conditions.
- There are scheduled speeches from ECB’s Stournaras, Nagel and Panetta today, though the settings/topics of the appearances may limit the scope for market moving rhetoric.
- Meanwhile, today’s regional data calendar is fairly limited.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jul-24 | 3.651 | -1.2 |
| Sep-24 | 3.483 | -18.0 |
| Oct-24 | 3.412 | -25.1 |
| Dec-24 | 3.226 | -43.7 |
| Jan-25 | 3.135 | -52.8 |
| Mar-25 | 2.995 | -66.8 |
| Apr-25 | 2.916 | -74.7 |
| Jun-25 | 2.791 | -87.2 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. 2025 dates are estimated. | ||
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Jun-25 06:26
The EU and Italy both released updated funding plans yesterday (summarised in the PDF). Finland looks to hold a USD syndication while Italy and Germany look to hold auctions. We pencil in an estimated gross issuance for the week at E24.7bln, down from E28.7bln this week.
- On Monday, a mandate was announced for Finland to launch a new 10-year USD EMTN maturing 2 July 2034. The transaction is expected to take place on Tuesday, with IPT of SOFR + 55bp area (CT10 + 16bp area). We look for a transaction size of USD1-2bln.
- Italy on Tuesday will look to hold a BTP Short Term and BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 3.20% Jan-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005584302) alongside E0.5-1.5bln of the 0.40% May-30 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005387052) and E0.75-1.25bln of the 2.40% May-39 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005547812).
- Germany on Tuesday, will issue E4.5bln of the 2.90% Jun-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22056).
- Italy will return to the market on Thursday, to hold a 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction. On offer will be E3.0-3.5bln of the on-the-run 5-year 3.35% Jul-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584849), E3.0-3.5bln of the on-the-run 10-year 3.85% Jul-34 BTP (ISIN: IT0005584856) and E1.25-1.75bln of the Apr-32 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005594467). We had thought there was a risk of a new 10-year BTP being launched at this auction, but we think that will now happen in July.
For more on this week's issuance and a look ahead to next week's issuance see the full PDF here:
