MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI POLICY: BOE Seeks Low Key QT, No Sharp Pace Change Likely

Vice President Kamala Harris may get a turnout boost in the Sun Belt after an abortion measure was added to the Arizona ballot. A similar measure is also on the ballot in Nevada, where Trump appears to hold his strongest swing-state lead.

• Axios notes: “The abortion rights side has won every time it's been on the ballot since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.”
• President Biden’s withdrawal appears to have cratered support for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and reduced the prevalence of the so-called ‘double haters’ who characterised much of the Biden-Trump period. Kennedy, who was polling as high as 22% before Biden dropped out, now appears headed for a low single-digit vote share.
• Split Ticket notes: “The biggest factor that was unique to this election cycle was a deep distaste of both candidates... Kamala Harris’ ascension seems to have completely changed this dynamic.”
• Sabato’s Crystal Ball notes, "it appears that [Harris] has pulled some Democrats back from the Kennedy column, and most polls now suggest Kennedy is hurting Trump more than Harris,” but adds, “This could actually represent a small but still hidden source of Trump growth—if one believes that RFK Jr. is still polling higher than what he’ll ultimately get in November...”
• Trump’s suggestion to Elon Musk that striking workers could be fired, may nudge Teamsters president Sean O’Brien to endorse Kamala Harris.
• O’Brien, who has so-far withheld an endorsement, said in a statement: “Firing workers for organizing, striking, and exercising their rights as Americans is economic terrorism.”

• Our dispersion measures for July CPI showed a partial reversal of June’s latest (but sequentially modest) disinflationary progress. 
• 32% of ~190 categories across the entire CPI basket saw price increases of >3% Y/Y, vs a new recent low of 31% in June and the 2019 av of 24%. 
• As for ~70 items across core goods, this share was 15.5% vs 14% in June as it continues to hover below the 2019 av of 18.5%. 
• However, core services saw their share increase 2pps back to 65% of ~50 items, showing relatively little trend progress and is still far more elevated than the 38% in 2019. 
• Charts below: