MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI INTERVIEW: UK To Ease Debt Target, Avoid Net Worth Target
Oct-16 2024 14:05
Former senior UK Treasury and Office for Budget Responsibility official Andy King discusses October Budget options. - On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
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STIR: SONIA Pricing Little Changed, Externalities Eyed Into BoE
Sep-16 2024 14:02
SONIA futures last -2.0 to +2.0.
- SFIH5 continues to be capped by its early August high (96.180), with any meaningful break there having the potential to trigger further dovish repricing on the strip and in gilts.
- BoE-dated OIS still trading around levels flagged earlier, with ~4bp of cuts priced for this week’s meeting, ~51.5bp of cuts priced through year-end and ~138bp of cuts priced through June ’25.
- Spill over from Wednesday’s Fed decision (odds of a 50bp cut have jumped in recent days, given dovish press previews) could make for volatile GBP STIR trade on Thursday, particularly with the BoE previously being unwilling to commit to immediate further easing.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Sep-24 | 4.907 | -4.3 |
Nov-24 | 4.628 | -32.2 |
Dec-24 | 4.435 | -51.5 |
Feb-25 | 4.166 | -78.4 |
Mar-25 | 3.937 | -101.3 |
May-25 | 3.700 | -125.0 |
Jun-25 | 3.567 | -138.4 |
EGBS: Crude Recovery Helps 5y5y Inflation Swap Away From Cycle Lows
Sep-16 2024 14:02
Brent crude futures have recovered ~5% since last Tuesday’s close, helping the EUR 5y5y inflation swap move away from multi-year lows.
- The 5y5y swap is currently at 2.07%, 2bps higher today as Brent rallies almost 2%.
- This afternoon’s extension higher in Brent will have provided background pressure to EGBs, with Bund futures now +10 at 134.82, down from an intraday high of 135.02.
BOE APF SALES RESULTS: Detailed results
Sep-16 2024 13:53
| Medium Gilts | Bids received | BOE sells | WAAP | Prev bids | Prev sales |
| 4.25% Jun-32 | GBP0.0m | GBP129.9m | GBP26.0m | ||
| 0.875% Jul-33 Green | NA | NA | GBP0.0m | GBP0.0m | |
| 4.50% Sep-34 | GBP159.0m | GBP0.0m | GBP132.8m | GBP18.6m | |
| 0.625% Jul-35 | GBP50.4m | GBP0.0m | GBP179.6m | GBP126.8m | |
| 4.25% Mar-36 | GBP892.4m | GBP653.9m | 103.672 | GBP753.1m | GBP498.9m |
| 1.75% Sep-37 | GBP0.0m | GBP96.5m | GBP0.0m | ||
| 4.75% Dec-38 | GBP27.3m | GBP0.0m | GBP115.5m | GBP0.0m | |
| 4.25% Sep-39 | GBP592.2m | GBP71.0m | 102.081 | GBP0.0m | GBP0.0m |
| 4.25% Dec-40 | GBP10.3m | GBP0.0m | GBP20.1m | GBP20.1m | |
| 1.25% Oct-41 | GBP0.0m | GBP6.4m | GBP6.4m | ||
| 4.50% Dec-42 | GBP0.0m | GBP0.0m | GBP0.0m | ||
| 3.25% Jan-44 | GBP0.0m | GBP28.2m | GBP28.2m | ||
| Total | GBP1,731.6m | GBP724.9m | GBP1,462.0m | GBP724.9m |
