MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – September 2025

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Energy And Services To Drive Headline Higher

• The Eurozone September flash inflation print is due on Wednesday morning, with data from Germany, France and Italy coming on Tuesday.
• Spain and Belgium released flash data Monday morning. Headline inflation is expected to rise across the four major economies, culminating in a 2.2% Y/Y median for the Eurozone-wide print (vs 2.0% prior). Core inflation is expected to be steady at 2.3% Y/Y.
• Across categories, the main driver in September will be the yearly rate of energy picking up to around –0.4% Y/Y (median of analyst previews MNI has seen) from –2.0% in August on the back of base effects. Meanwhile, the recent downtrend in services inflation is expected to temporarily halt with a small uptick to 3.2% Y/Y (vs 3.1% in August).
• Core goods are seen marginally lower than last month at 0.6%-0.7% Y/Y (vs 0.8% prior), albeit with uncertainty around the impact of seasonality and weight changes relative to 2024. Analysts generally expect little change in food, alcohol and tobacco inflation at around 3.2%.