EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Australia-US 10 year differential %
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
UKRAINE (BBC): “Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said military planning to protect a potential Ukraine ceasefire is moving to an "operational phase" after a virtual meeting with 29 other world leaders.”
EU
ECB (BBG): “The European Central Bank is expected to lower borrowing costs two more times, with back-to-back cuts likely in April and June.”
US/RUSSIA (BBG): “President Donald Trump said he will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss an end to fighting in Russia's war in Ukraine.”
RUSSIA (RTRS): “Russia will seek "ironclad" guarantees in any peace deal on Ukraine that NATO nations will exclude Kyiv from membership and that Ukraine will remain neutral, a Russian deputy foreign minister said in remarks published on Monday.”
DEFENCE (MNI): “France will not apply for a national escape clause to exempt any increase in defence spending from European Union fiscal constraints, a French official confirmed to MNI, as it becomes clear that applications for such exemptions from around the EU may fall well short of the potential maximum of EUR650 billion in additional fiscal space.”
EU (EUROPEAN COUNCIL): Foreign Affairs Council, 17 March 2025 “Ministers will exchange views on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, after a short intervention of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha via videoconference. They will then hold discussions on the situation in the Middle East, Iran and EU-US relations.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “Military chiefs from about 30 Kyiv allies will hold a fresh “operational planning meeting” in London on Thursday to game out how they would commit peacekeeping troops to a post-war Ukraine.”
TRADE (POLITICO): “French Prime Minister François Bayrou on Sunday questioned the European Commission's decision to hit American bourbon and other products with tariffs as part of an escalating tit-for-tat trade war between Washington and Brussels.”
TRADE (POLITICO): “French President Emmanuel Macron wants to lead a charm offensive to convince EU countries to stop buying U.S. defense equipment and buy French and European instead.”
DEFENCE (POLITICO): “The European Commission is considering a new satellite network to bolster military intelligence amid doubts about sustained support from the United States, European Defense and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said in an interview with the Financial Times.”
DEFENCE (FRANCE24): “Spurred by the war in Ukraine and the prospect of US disengagement, European countries are debating a return to compulsory military service to counter Russian expansionism.”
GERMANY (BBC): “Germany's conservative leader, Friedrich Merz, has clinched an enormous financial package to revamp defence and infrastructure, ahead of a crunch vote in parliament next Tuesday.”
GERMANY (DW): “The head of the conservative CDU/CSU bloc Friedrich Merz said that the next German government will have to cut costs despite his suggested debt-backed financial package, worth €500 billion ($545 million).”
FRANCE (POLITICO): “Asked in an interview with France Inter whether he would consider returning the retirement age to the level it was before the pensions reform pushed by French President Emmanuel Macron, Bayrou said “no.””
RUSSIA (CNN): “Although Kyiv is now on the back foot in Kursk, Zelensky and military analysts have questioned Putin’s claims – echoed by US President Donald Trump – that Russian forces have surrounded Ukraine’s soldiers.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “Western sanctions on Russia could ultimately be dropped if it helps deliver security and justice for Ukraine, Kyiv’s top sanctions official told POLITICO, as United States President Donald Trump steps up bilateral negotiations with Moscow in a bid to end the war.”
HUNGARY (POLITICO): “Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Saturday vowed to crack down on a “shadow army” of political opponents, journalists, judges and activists in the country, who he said were working for foreign powers. In an inflammatory speech at a party rally in Budapest marking Hungary’s 1848 revolution against Austrian rule.”
GREENLAND (BBC): “Greenland's leading political parties have issued a joint statement to condemn Donald Trump's "unacceptable behaviour", after the US president seemed to escalate his campaign to take over the island.”
US
MARKETS (BBG): “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, said he’s not worried about the recent downturn that’s wiped trillions of dollars from the equities market as the US seeks to reshape its economic policies. “I’ve been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy, they are normal,” Bessent said Sunday on NBC’s Meet The Press. “I‘m not worried about the markets. Over the long term, if we put good tax policy in place, deregulation and energy security, the markets will do great.”
MIDDLE EAST (RTRS): “The United States will keep attacking Yemen's Houthis until they end attacks on shipping, the U.S. defense secretary said on Sunday, as the Iran-aligned group signaled it could escalate in response to deadly U.S. strikes the day before. The airstrikes, which the Houthi-run health ministry said killed at least 53 people, are the biggest U.S. military operation in the Middle East since President Donald Trump took office in January. One U.S. official told Reuters the campaign might continue for weeks."
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): "Consumer expectations for inflation soared in March while sentiment about the labor market sagged to lows not seen since the Global Financial Crisis, placing the Federal Reserve in an increasingly difficult position, the head of the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers told MNI."
RUSSIA (POLITICO): “U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held a call on Saturday as Washington pushes for a ceasefire in Ukraine.”
OTHER
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): “Mark Carney was sworn in as Canada's prime minister Friday and he began by naming Francois-Philippe Champagne as the new finance minister as they prepare to navigate an election and a trade war against the United States.”
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): “Mark Carney used his debut press conference as Prime Minister on Friday to call U.S. President Donald Trump's talk of making Canada the 51st state "crazy" and said he will first visit London and Paris rather than Washington to develop more reliable security and trade partners.”
CHINA
CONSUMPTION (BBG/XINHUA): “China will take steps to revive consumption by boosting people’s incomes, the official Xinhua News Agency reported on Sunday, citing a statement from the State Council.”
CONSUMPTION (MNI): "China's retail sales quickened to a four-month high of 4.0% y/y over January-February, rising from December's 3.7% growth and meeting the 4.0% forecast, despite a higher comparison base for the same period last year, according to data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics, which typically combines results of the first two months to smooth out the Spring Festival impact."
HOUSING (SECURITIES TIMES): “China will raise its standard for housing construction to meet buyers’ upgrading needs, which were included in the annual Government Work Report for the first time and will open more space for the real-estate market, Securities Times reported.”
FOREIGN INVESTMENT (PEOPLE’S DAILY): “China will soon release the latest edition of the catalogue of industries encouraged for foreign investment, which will include more items in advanced manufacturing, modern services, high-tech, energy-saving and environmental protection sectors, People’s Daily reported citing Hua Zhong, head of foreign investment at the National Development and Reform Commission.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY2.5 Bln via OMO Monday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY481 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY2.5 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY96.5 billion 7-day reverse repos and CNY387 billion MLF today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1688 Mon; -0.41% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1688 on Monday, compared with 7.1738 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2217 by Bloomberg survey today.
MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.24% In Week of Mar 17
The CFETS Weekly RMB Index was 98.81 on Mar 17, down 0.24% compared with 99.05 as of Mar 7.
MARKET DATA
UK MARCH RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES +1.1% M/M; FEB. +0.5%
UK MARCH RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES +1% Y/Y; FEB. +1.4%
NEW ZEALAND FEB. BNZ SERVICES PSI 49.1; JAN. 50.4
CHINA FEB. NEW HOME PRICES -0.14% M/M; JAN. -0.07%
CHINA FEB. EXISTING HOME PRICES -0.34% M/M; JAN. -0.34%
CHINA JAN.-FEB. RETAIL SALES +4% Y/Y; EST. 3.8%
CHINA JAN.-FEB. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +5.9% Y/Y; EST. 5.3%
CHINA JAN.-FEB. FIXED INVESTMENT +4.1% Y/Y; EST. 3.2%
CHINA JAN.-FEB. PROPERTY DEV. INVESTMENT -9.8% Y/Y; EST. -8.9%
CHINA END-FEB. SURVEYED JOBLESS RATE 5.4%; EST. 5.1%; JAN. 5.2%
SOUTH KOREA JAN. ADJUSTED L MONEY SUPPLY +0.8% M/M; DEC. +0.2%
SOUTH KOREA JAN. ADJUSTED M2 MONEY SUPPLY +0.5% M/M; DEC. +0.9%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Futures Give Early Strength Ahead Of Retail Sales
In today's Asia-Pac session, TYM5 is 110-20+, unchanged from closing levels, after giving up early strength. Today's high has so far been 110-26.
JGBS: Twist-Steepener Ahead Of US Retail Sales, BoJ Decision On Wednesday
JGB futures are stronger, +16 compared to settlement levels, but off the session’s best level.
AUSSIE BONDS: Subdued Session Ahead Of US Retail Sales, Jobs Data On Thursday
ACGBs (YM flat & XM +1.0) are little changed.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed On A Weak Note, Q4 GDP On Thursday
NZGBs closed on a weak note, with benchmark yields 3-4bps cheaper.
FOREX: G10 FX Moves Limited As Equities Generally Stronger
The BBDXY USD index is moderately higher today after falling 0.2% on Friday. It has trended higher since its intraday low early in the session supported by a softer yen. USDJPY is 0.2% higher at 148.92, close to the intraday high of 149.07.
ASIA STOCKS: Strong Day on China Stimulus
The China stimulus news has given equity markets in the region a boost, with most in the green today.
OIL: Crude Higher Boosted By Geopolitical Tensions & China Stimulus Hopes
Oil prices are off their intraday highs but are still moderately stronger on the session. They were boosted early in trading by news of intensive US strikes against Houthi positions in Yemen due to the resumption of their targeting of vessels in the Red Sea. WTI is 0.7% higher at $67.68/bbl after a peak of $68.37 where it found resistance (initial resistance at $68.36). Brent is up 0.7% to $71.10/bbl following a high of $71.80, still below resistance at $71.92. The USD index is little changed.
GOLD: Unable to Hold at New Highs.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
17/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | Italy Final HICP |
17/03/2025 | 1215/0815 | ** | ![]() | CMHC Housing Starts |
17/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | ![]() | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
17/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | Retail Sales |
17/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
17/03/2025 | 1300/0900 | * | ![]() | CREA Existing Home Sales |
17/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | ![]() | Business Inventories |
17/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | ![]() | NAHB Home Builder Index |
17/03/2025 | 1400/1500 | ![]() | ECB's Lagarde awarding of diplomas at University Aix-Marselle | |
17/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
17/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
18/03/2025 | - | ![]() | Bank of Japan Meeting | |
18/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ![]() | Consumer Price inflation weight update | |
18/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | ![]() | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
18/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | * | ![]() | Trade Balance |
18/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | ![]() | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
18/03/2025 | - | ![]() | FOMC Meetings with S.E.P. | |
18/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | CPI |
18/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | Housing Starts |
18/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Import/Export Price Index |
18/03/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | ![]() | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
18/03/2025 | 1315/0915 | *** | ![]() | Industrial Production |