MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: China Equities Surge On Consumption Hopes

Mar-14 05:16By: Jonathan Cavenagh

Europe

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

US SHUTDOWN ODDS DECREASE AS SCHUMER DROPS THREAT TO BLOCK BILL - BBG
TRUMP THREATENS 200% TARIFF ON ALCOHOL FROM EU - BBC
ECB'S LAGARDE WARNS OF SEVERE GLOBAL FALLOUT FROM A TRADE WAR - BBG
RBA MORE REACTIVE IN FUTURE - FORMER ECONOMIST - MNI INTERVIEW
CONSUMPTION SECTOR DRIVES CHINESE STOCKS HIGHER ON POLICY HOPES - BBG

Fig 1: China & Hong Kong Equity Indices

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.

FISCAL (BBG): "More than half of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s cabinet have urged his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to rethink her plans to scale back welfare and spending, in an extraordinary sign of growing concern within the governing Labour Party over the scale of looming cuts."

US/EU (BBC): “US President Donald Trump has threatened a 200% tariff on any alcohol coming to the US from the European Union (EU) in the latest twist of an escalating trade war. The threat is a response to the EU's plans for a 50% tax on imports of US-produced whiskey as part of its retaliation to Trump's tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports to the US.”

ECB (BBG/BBC): "European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that an escalation of disputes over trade levies kicked off by US President Donald Trump may have a detrimental effect on the world economy. “If we were to go to a real trade war where trade would be dampened significantly, that would have severe consequences,” she told the BBC. “For growth around the world and for prices around the world, but particularly in the United States.”

RUSSIA (BBG): “Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wants to discuss a proposed ceasefire in Ukraine with his US counterpart Donald Trump, though he warned that any truce should lead to a long-term resolution of the war.”

PORTUGAL (BBG): "Portugal will face an early election on May 18, its third in just three years, after parliament toppled Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s center-right minority government in a confidence vote."

GOVERNMENT (BBG): “ Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer dropped his threat to block a Republican spending bill, opening the way to avoid a US government shutdown.”

GOVERNMENT (RTRS): "Federal judges in California and Maryland on Thursday ordered U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to reinstate thousands of probationary federal workers who lost their jobs as part of mass firings carried out at 19 agencies."

FISCAL (BBG): “ President Donald Trump and key Senate Republicans are still grasping for a solution to the US closing in on the debt ceiling following a White House meeting Thursday.”

OTHER

AUSTRALIA (MNI INTERVIEW): RBA More Reactive In Future - Former Economist.

US/CANADA (THE HILL): “Ontario Premier Doug Ford lauded his Thursday meeting with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as “positive” and “productive” after their public rift over tariffs on imported goods. “We shared a tremendous amount of views back and forth, and I’m feeling very positive,” Ford told reporters outside the U.S. Department of Commerce building.”

JAPAN (BBG): "Japan’s largest trade union federation is set to announce its first tally of pay deals, a crucial measure of whether wage growth momentum is holding up in the country. Worker pay remains an essential piece of the virtuous economic cycle sought by the Bank of Japan and the government."

JAPAN (BBG): "Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba confirmed that he distributed gift vouchers to 15 lawmakers, raising questions about whether he skirted political funding laws and casting another cloud over his already weak position as support for his minority government sags."

CHINA

CONSUMPTION (BBG): "Officials from the finance ministry, commerce ministry, the central bank and other government bodies will hold a press conference Monday on measures to boost consumption"

PBOC (YICAI): "China’s central bank should create structural tools to encourage financial institutions to issue consumer credit, expand household spending and facilitate investment and consumption balance, according to Wei Gejun, counsellor at the People's Bank of China, speaking at a recent PBOC meeting."

WEALTH MANAGEMENT (21ST CENTURY BUSINESS HERALD): "Several Chinese banks have tightened rules on dollar wealth management products after quotas filled up, 21st Century Business Herald has reported. An insider at one institution said customers’ subscription amount for the day can no longer exceed the redemption amount from the previous day and the bank will not proactively promote foreign currency wealth management products."

FREIGHT (MNI BRIEF): China’s rail freight dispatched 808 million tonnes during the first two months of the year, a y/y increase of 0.3%, the State Railway Administration said on Friday.

CHINA MARKETS

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY4.3 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY180.7 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY4.3 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY185 billion today, according to Wind Information.

The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.5283% at 09:53 am local time from the close of 1.8004% on Thursday.
The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 48 on Thursday, compared with the close of 49 on Wednesday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1738 Fri; -0.60% Y/Y

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1738 on Friday, compared with 7.1728 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2449 by Bloomberg survey today.

MARKET DATA

NEW ZEALAND FEB BUZINESSNZ MANUFACTURING PMI 53.9; PRIOR 51.7
NEW ZEALAND FEB FOOD PRICES -0.5%; PRIOR 1.9%

SOUTH KOREA FEB IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M -0.8%; PRIOR 2.2%
SOUTH KOREA FEB EXPORT PRICE INDEX M/M -0.6%; PRIOR 1.3%

MARKETS

US TSYS: Cheaper, Risk-On As US Govt Shutdown Risk Reduced

In today's Asia-Pac session, TYM5 is 110-28, -0-02 from closing levels.

Cash bonds are flat to 2bps cheaper, with a steepening bias, in the Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest rally.
Yesterday, US tsys were supported by risk-off amid ongoing trade war uncertainty.
However, US equity futures are higher today with US Government shutdown odds seemingly falling. Rtrs noted: "Top U.S. Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer told colleagues behind closed doors on Thursday that he would vote to advance a stopgap funding bill, signaling that his party would provide the votes to avert a government shutdown, Punchbowl News reported, citing Democratic aides and lawmakers."
Today’s calendar highlight is U of Mich Sentiment data.

JGBS: Futures Higher But Off Highs, Rengo Wage Outcome Due

JGB futures are higher, +8 compared to settlement levels, but well off session bests.

Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in the Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest rally. US equity futures are higher today with US Government shutdown odds seemingly falling. Rtrs noted: "Top U.S. Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer told colleagues behind closed doors on Thursday that he would vote to advance a stopgap funding bill.”
This week BoJ Governor Ueda largely delivered a repeat of previous hawkish statements. While no change is expected at next week’s BoJ meeting, the timing of recent messaging suggests the decision will come with a hawkish outlook. This may see the markets ramp up expectations for the decision due on May 1, from its current stance of July. It is also noteworthy that the BoJ raised interest rates last year shortly after Rengo (the largest Japanese trade union) published its initial count of wage rises. Due at 4:15pm local time. (BBG)
Cash JGBs are 1bp richer to 3bps cheaper across benchmarks, with a steepening bias. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1bp higher at 1.557% versus the cycle high of 1.58%.
Swap rates are flat to 3bps higher, with a steeper curve.
On Monday, the local calendar will be empty apart from BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-25-year JGBs.

AUSSIE BONDS: Little Changed On A Data-Light Session

ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +0.5) little changed on a data-light session.

“AUD/USD has further downside because ‘peak tariff’ has not been reached. Further wide-ranging tariffs are likely to be announced on April 2 when President Trump receives options for more duties from officials which “could be the catalyst to eventually pull AUD/USD down below 0.6000 in coming months” writes Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at CBA. (per BBG)
Cash ACGBs are flat with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +12bps.
Swap rates are slightly lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
The bills strip is +1 to +2 across contracts.
RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in April is given an 8% probability, with a cumulative 66bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%).
The local calendar will be empty on Monday. The next event on the local calendar is Sarah Hunter's, Assistant Governor (Economic) speech at the AFR Banking Summit on Tuesday.
Next week, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2029 bond on Friday.

BONDS: NZGBS: Bear-Flattener, RBNZ Repo Of Sep-25 Linker

NZGBs closed a subdued session near the worst levels, with benchmark yields flat to 2bps cheaper.

“New Zealand's monthly price indicators suggest inflation risks have cooled, with prices reversing course in February after a pickup in December and January. The pullback in prices through February suggests downside risk to the RBNZ's inflation outlook, adding to the case for further easing at its next meeting on April 9.” (per BBG Economics)
Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in the Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest rally. US equity futures are higher today with US Government shutdown odds seemingly falling. Rtrs noted: "Top U.S. Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer told colleagues behind closed doors on Thursday that he would vote to advance a stopgap funding bill.”
Swap rates closed showing a bear-flattener, with rates flat to 2bps higher.
RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 4bps firmer, with February 2026 leading. 25bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 68bps by November 2025.
On Monday, the local calendar will see the Performance Services Index. Later today will see U of Mich Sentiment data in the US.
The RBNZ will start the repurchase program of the Sep-25 inflation-indexed bond on March 21. The operation is being undertaken to manage liquidity and has no implications for monetary policy stance.

FOREX: Yen Falters With Higher US Equity Futures, A$ & NZD Nudge Higher

The USD BBDXY index has edged higher today, last near 1269.15, largely thanks to yen weakness. The USD index is up only a touch for the past week though.

The yen has unwound some of Thursday's outperformance so far in Friday trade. USD/JPY was last near 148.45/50, up around 0.45%. The move higher in USD/JPY has coincided a meaningful rebound in US equity futures. Eminis are up 0.70%, Nasdaq futures are +1% higher.
Sentiment has been aided by reduced US government shut down odds, as Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer stated he would support the Stopgap bill from the Republicans (which was better than the alternative of a government shutdown in Schumer's words). US yields have also recovered some ground, the 10yr yield up 2bps to 4.29%.
For USD/JPY we are still sub highs for the week (above 149.00), while the 20-day EMA is back at 149.72.
AUD and NZD have ticked higher, particularly against the yen. AUD/USD is still sub 0.6300, lagging NZD modestly. NZD/USD is back around 0.5710. Earlier PMI data suggested a further cyclical recovery, although price data reversed some of the gains seen in Jan.
The A$ and NZD are also seeing some benefit from surging China and Hong Kong stocks. The rebound is reflective of stimulus hopes for the consumer sector, with a joint press conference scheduled for next Monday in China (3pm local time). Officials from the finance ministry and PBoC will be there, along with other agencies, with efforts to boost consumption the focus point.
Looking ahead, note we should have Rengo's (the largest Japanese trade union) initial pay tally later for 2025 wage outcomes. BBG states results may come out at 4:15pm local time.
In the UK we have GDP data, while in France final Feb CPI is due. In the US, the March U. of Mich. sentiment report is out.

ASIA STOCKS: Friday Afternoon Boost on China Press Conference.

Markets turned around on Friday on the news that a press conference is to be held on Monday by Chinese authorities with the subject boosting consumption.
Markets have extrapolated a fiscal stimulus from this, boosting markets across the region.
Having trended weaker in early trade, China’s Hang Seng got a boost from the news surging to be +2.50% up for the day, with the CSI 300 +2.37%, Shanghai +1.64% and Shenzhen +1.60%. Despite the rally, the Hang Seng is on track for a decline of around -0.70% on the week.
Korea’s KOSPI was the outlier in the region, not able to jump into the green and remains -0.10% lower on the day and on track to finish the week with a marginal gain of +0.23%.
Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa KLCI has had a poor week and despite being higher by +0.12%, is on track to fall over -2.2% for the week.
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite wasn’t too concerned about the news and is down -1.58% and on track for decline of -1.3% for the week.
India’s NIFTY 50 is opening weaker and is lower by -0.33% following yesterday’s moderate losses.
Other bourses ignored the news with the Singapore FTSE Straits Times down -0.08%, whilst the Philippines jumped +0.60%

OIL: China Press Conference Gives Oil a Boost Despite Softer Week.

Oil had done very little in morning trading until the announcement of a press conference in China next Monday on boosting consumption got markets excited.
This gave oil a boost, paring back losses from earlier in the week.
The news comes following the International Energy Agency (“IEA”) latest reports pose a potentially bearish outlook for oil in the near term.
The IEA has reduced its forecasts for consumption of oil as the impact of US tariffs plays havoc with supply chains.
IEA surprised markets last week by suggesting a 400,000 bbl/d increase in supply despite their forecasts for 2025 suggesting a potential surplus.
The IEA notes that “the macroeconomic conditions that underpin our oil demand projections deteriorated over the past month as trade tensions escalated between the US and several other countries.”
This report has the potential to be further drag on oil prices, which have been pressured since early January when the Trump administration began to enact their trade policies.
WTI had opened the Asian session at $66.77 and was on track for weekly decline before jumping to $67.02 on the China news.
If able to maintain these levels, this could see oil finish flat on the week following eight successive weeks of declines.
Brent had opened in the Asian trading session at $69.88, doing very little prior to the announcement of the press conference at which point it jumped back through $70/bbl to reach $70.34 and If Brent was able to maintain these levels, this could see it finish flat on the week following four successive weeks of declines.
State Owned Saudi Oil giant Saudi Aramco is seeing a material decline in oil demand in China according to data supplied by BBG.
In further escalation of the pressure on Iran, the US Treasury Department has included the Iranian oil minister on the list of ‘specially designated nationals’ thereby imposing sanctions on him.
The US has imposed further sanctions on companies and cargo ships specifically used by Iran in the transport of oil.
According to reports the US has let a 60-day exemption that has allowed specific energy transactions involving Russian sanctioned banks to continue to transact via a US payment system, lapse in a sign that US could be altering its approach with Russia.

Gold Delivers Another Strong Week of Gains

Gold’s ‘safe haven’ status was on display this week as equity markets stumbled, early before rebounding Friday on potential fiscal stimulus in China.
Despite a slow start to the week with a decline on Monday, Gold has surged each day since and set to finish up over +2.7%
This despite data out shows that money managers have been reducing their bullish bets on gold in recent weeks, a sign that some of the price activity was likely driven by profit taking.
Overnight, gold got a new boost with weaker than expected US PPI data giving gold a boost before opening at $2,981.75.
This followed into the Asian trading session with Gold touching new highs of $2,993.50 before backing off to $2,992.35
The rally has seen gold hit fresh highs, causing market commentators to refresh their 2025 forecasts with some predicting US$3,500 by third quarter.
In further signs as to the strength of the demand dynamics for gold, Bolivia’s new state gold trading firm EPCORO announced plans to quadruple its purchase of gold this year for the nation’s reserves, aiming to sell up to US$1bn of gold to the Central Bank.

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
14/03/2025	0700/0700	**	GB	UK Monthly GDP
14/03/2025	0700/0800	**	SE	Unemployment
14/03/2025	0700/0700	**	GB	Index of Services
14/03/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Index of Production
14/03/2025	0700/0800	***	DE	HICP (f)
14/03/2025	0700/0700	**	GB	Output in the Construction Industry
14/03/2025	0730/0730		GB	DMO calendar for first 3 weeks of FY 25/26 confirmed
14/03/2025	0745/0845	***	FR	HICP (f)
14/03/2025	0800/0900	***	ES	HICP (f)
14/03/2025	0900/1000	*	IT	Industrial Production
14/03/2025	0930/0930		GB	BoE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey
14/03/2025	-	***	CN	New Loans
14/03/2025	-	***	CN	Money Supply
14/03/2025	-	***	CN	Social Financing
14/03/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
14/03/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Wholesale Trade
14/03/2025	1315/1415		EU	Cipollone in panel discussion at "Fifty years of Consob: present and future - Reflections in Bocconi" Milan
14/03/2025	1400/1000	***	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
14/03/2025	1400/1000	**	US	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation
14/03/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
14/03/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly