MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: China Data Misses But Market Impact Limited

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• US, CHINA END FIRST DAY OF TALKS IN SPAIN ON TRADE, TIKTOK DEADLINE - RTRS
• POWELL WON’T SIGNAL STRING OF FED CUTS - LOCKHART - MNI INTERVIEW
• MNI BOJ WATCH: BOARD TO HOLD, FOCUS ON CPI, TRADE - MNI BOJ WATCH
• CHINA'S AUGUST INVESTMENT SLOWS TO FIVE-YEAR LOW - MNI BRIEF
• MNI LOOKS AT THE KEY RISKS THAT COULD IMPACT THE RBA'S OUTLOOK - MNI POLICY 

Fig 1: China's Property Market Remained Soft In August 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI  

UK 

BOE (MNI INTERVIEW): The Bank of England may have underestimated the effects of quantitative tightening on gilt yields and this will add to arguments for reducing the programme’s pace next week when the Monetary Policy Committee fixes a fresh target for cutting its gilt stocks over the next 12-months, Resolution Foundation Research Director James Smith told MNI. 

HOUSE PRICES (BBG): “London led UK house prices to their first annual fall in almost two years, with the capital and other pricey areas facing the risk of further weakness amid fears of a new tax raid on property, a report warned.” 

POLITICS (GUARDIAN): “After a disastrous week in which Angela Rayner resigned and Peter Mandelson was sacked as ambassador to Washington, a number of MPs said a challenge was likely if local and Welsh elections went badly next May.”

ENERGY (BBC): “The UK and US are set to sign a landmark agreement aimed at accelerating the development of nuclear power. It is expected to be signed off during US President Donald Trump's state visit this week, with both sides hoping it will unlock billions in private investment.”

FINANCE (BBC): “Belfast, along with London, Edinburgh and Manchester, is set to benefit from a wave of new US investment into the financial services sector. Bank of America intends to create up to 1,000 new jobs. Citigroup has also pledged investment. The US firms, which also include PayPal and S&P Global, have announced the investments, worth more than £1.25 billion, ahead of President Donald Trump's state visit to the UK.”

TECH (POLITICO): “At a couple of pages long, the technology pact the U.S. and the U.K. will sign this week when President Donald Trump lands in London will be easy to miss amid the circus of a state visit. But what will be impossible to ignore is the group of technology heavyweights joining Trump’s entourage. Nvidia boss Jensen Huang, OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Blackstone chief executive Stephen Schwarzman are among those accompanying the U.S. president.”

UKRAINE (BBC): “A further £142 million in UK aid will support Ukraine's energy infrastructure and vulnerable communities, while 100 new sanctions will aim to further hit Russia's economy and military supplies.”

POLITICS (BBC): “Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson has urged Labour to remain united as she launched her bid for the party's deputy leadership. In a speech in Sunderland, she told supporters to back her to bring the party together, secure a second term and "deliver the change we want to see and beat Reform".”

EU

RUSSIA (BBG): “US President Donald Trump said he’s prepared to move ahead with “major” sanctions on Russian oil if NATO countries do the same.” 

NATO (BBC): “Romania says a Russian drone has breached its airspace - the second Nato country to report such an incursion. Romanian fighter jets were in the air monitoring a Russian attack in Ukraine on Saturday and were able to track the drone near Ukraine's southern border, the defence ministry said in a statement.”

NATO (BBC): “More Nato countries will move troops and fighter jets eastwards after more than a dozen drones entered Polish airspace on Wednesday.”

SECURITY (POLITICO): ““Russia’s incursion into Romanian airspace is once again a blatant violation of EU sovereignty and a serious threat to regional security,” European Commission President von der Leyen said in a post on X. EU foreign policy chief Kallas called Saturday’s incursion into Romania “yet another unacceptable breach of an EU Member State’s sovereignty,” in a separate post on X.”

GERMANY (DW): “As polls closed across North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state, initial forecasts show Merz's CDU is set to take around 34% of the vote, followed by center-left SPD, with 22.5%, and the far-right AfD, with 16.5% — over three times more than the 5.1% the party secured in 2020. Sunday's polls were the first local elections since Chancellor Merz took office in May.”

FRANCE (BBG): “Fitch has downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating by one notch to A+, assigning a stable outlook. Fitch is citing a high and rising debt ratio, political fragmentation, a weak fiscal record and an uncertain consolidation path as the main drivers behind the downgrade.” 

FRANCE (POLITICO): “The new prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, announced on Saturday that he will scrap proposals from his predecessor to eliminate two public holidays as part of a belt-tightening drive to shrink France’s massive public debt.”

FRANCE (POLITICO): “Marine Le Pen fired up a crowd of supporters on Sunday in Bordeaux as she lashed out at President Emmanuel Macron for bringing the country to the verge of chaos, casting her party as the only real alternative after years of business-as-usual by mainstream parties.”

RUSSIA/UKRAINE (BBG): “The Kirishi oil refinery, known as Kinef, in the Leningrad region was attacked by Ukrainian drones overnight as Kyiv keeps up the pressure on Russian energy and industrial facilities.”

TURKEY (RTRS): “A Turkish court will decide on Monday whether to oust the head of the main opposition, in what some see as a test of the country's shaky balance between democracy and autocracy after a nearly year-long legal crackdown on the party.”

EU (POLITICO): “The far-right Patriots for Europe is taking legal action after the European Parliament suspended access to millions of euros in public funds over alleged misspending.”

US

FED (MNI INTERVIEW): Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will justify next week’s widely expected interest rate cut by citing rising downside risks to employment but refrain from signaling a string of cuts beyond September because the Fed must also contend with inflation heading in the wrong direction, former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told MNI. 

FED (BBG): “President Donald Trump predicted a “big cut” from the Federal Reserve this week ahead of a pivotal meeting at which the central bank’s governors are expected to ease policy for the first time in nine months.” 

US/CHINA (RTRS): “U.S. and Chinese officials concluded a first day of talks in Madrid on Sunday on their strained trade ties, a looming divestiture deadline for Chinese short-video app TikTok, amid Washington's demands that its allies place tariffs on imports from China over its purchases of Russian oil.” 

RUSSIA (POLITICO): “Sen. Lindsey Graham wants to tie sanctions against Russia to the coming bill to fund the federal government.”

OTHER

CANADA (MNI): A growing budget deficit under Prime Minister Mark Carney aimed at countering the hit to demand from the U.S. trade war means Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will not need to lower interest rates much further to support flagging growth, former officials told MNI. 

MIDDLE EAST (RTRS): “Israeli forces destroyed at least 30 residential buildings in Gaza City and forced thousands of people from their homes, Palestinian officials said, as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived on Sunday to discuss the future of the conflict.” 

AUSTRALIA (MNI POLICY): MNI looks at the key risks that could impact the RBA's outlook. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com. 

JAPAN (MNI BOJ WATCH): The Bank of Japan board is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.50% at the two-day meeting ending Friday as it assesses the impact of tariffs on the U.S. and Japanese economies.

CHINA 

INVESTMENT (MNI BRIEF): China’s fixed-asset investment growth decelerated to 0.5% y/y in the Jan–Aug period from the previous 1.6%, marking the slowest pace since Aug 2020 and missing an expectation of 1.5%, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Monday.

CPI (MNI BRIEF): China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) could be rebounding, supported by stronger consumer demand and seasonal factors, according to Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics.

TECH (SECURITIES TIMES): “A second batch of exchange-traded funds focusing on tech bonds in China continued to be well-received by the market after subscriptions kicked off on Friday, the Securities Times reports.”

US/CHINA (BBG): "China launched two investigations targeting the US semiconductor sector ahead of planned talks between the two nations on trade and other issues." 

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY88.5 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY280 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY88.5 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY191.5 billion today, according to Wind Information. 

• The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4264% at 09:29 am local time from the close of 1.4575% on Friday.
• The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 50 on Friday, compared with the close of 47 on Thursday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1056 Mon; -0.89% Y/Y

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1056 on Monday, compared with 7.1019 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1231 by Bloomberg survey today.

MARKET DATA

UK SEPT. RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES +0.4% M/M; AUG. -1.3%
UK SEPT. RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES -0.1% Y/Y; AUG. +0.3%

NEW ZEALAND AUG. BNZ SERVICES PSI 47.5; JUL. 48.9

CHINA AUG. NEW HOME PRICES -0.30% M/M; JUL. -0.31%
CHINA AUG. EXISTING HOME PRICES -0.58% M/M; JUL -0.55%

CHINA AUG. RETAIL SALES +3.4% Y/Y; EST. +3.8%; JUL. +3.7%

CHINA AUG. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +5.2% Y/Y; EST. +5.6%; JUL +5.7%

CHINA JAN.-AUG. FIXED INVESTMENT +0.5% Y/Y; EST. +1.5%; YTD JUL. +1.6%

CHINA END-AUG. SURVEYED JOBLESS RATE 5.3%; EST. 5.2%; JUL. 5.2%

CHINA JAN-AUGUST PROPERTY INVESTMENT -12.9% Y/Y; EST. -12.5%; YTD JUL. -12.0%
CHINA JAN-AUGUST RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES -7.0% Y/Y; YTD JUL. -6.2%

MARKETS

US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Futures Edge Lower On A Japanese Holiday

The TYZ5 range has been 113-02 to 113-07 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 113-05+, down 0-03+ from the previous close. 

• 10-Year Yields found some supply around 4.00% and have retraced a little as the market looks towards the FOMC this week. The first buy-zone is now back towards the 4.20% area where I suspect decent demand should return initially. A sustained break through 4.00% is needed for the focus to then turn towards the 3.80% area.
• Alexander Stahel on X: “The market is now pricing in a fairly political Fed that’s going to overease. That’s the concept that seems the danger. Fed Funds at 4.375; market pricing in 3 for the long run projection. Anyway, 25bps this week seems a given. But we then need a machine gun of cuts.”
• RenMac on X: “Fed Should Go 50… But Likely Won’t – Neil Dutta”
• (Bloomberg) -- The Congressional Budget Office now expects higher inflation and unemployment this year and slower economic growth, after taking into account President Donald Trump’s tax law, tariffs and lower net immigration.
• Bob Elliott X: “Fed looks set to ignore a near 3% core PCE print as they transition to cutting.  While the Fed can ignore this reality, households can't. The continued price pressures are set to curtail their real spending ahead.”
• Data/Events: Empire Manufacturing

Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

AUSSIE BONDS: Weak Start To The Week, Jobs On Thurs

ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -6.0) are weaker and hovering near session lows on a relatively subdued session.

• There has been no cash US tsy trading today with Japan out. TYZ5 is moderately cheaper.
• Cash ACGBs are 3-6bps cheaper with the 3/10 curve steeper.
• The bills strip is flat to -4 across contracts with a steepening bias.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in September is given a 9% probability, with a cumulative 28bps of easing priced by year-end.
• Today, the local calendar was empty ahead of an RBA Hunter's Fire-Side Chat tomorrow.
• The focus this week, however, will be on Thursday's August jobs data. Employment is forecast to rise 21k after July's +24.5k with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. It will also be important to monitor underemployment, the split between full-time & part-time and hours worked. The RBA is currently expected to leave rates unchanged on September 30 as it waits for Q3 CPI on October 29.
• This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$1000mn of the 1.00% 21 December 2030 bond on Friday.

BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Cheaper Ahead Of A Busy Week Of Local Data

NZGBs closed 2-4bps cheaper, with the 2/10 curve steeper.

• Swap rates closed 1-3bp higher.
• (Bloomberg) “Economic activity is expected to pick up over the second half of 2025 but there is uncertainty surrounding the pace of recovery, the Treasury Dept. says in its Fortnightly Economic Update released Monday in Wellington.”
• The focus of the week will be on Thursday’s Q2 GDP data release. Bloomberg consensus is in line with the RBNZ’s August forecast of -0.3% q/q bringing the annual rate to flat after declining 0.7% y/y in Q2. 25bp rate cuts are expected at both the October 8 and 26 November meetings.
• August monthly price series including food, electricity, rent, petrol and travel print on Tuesday. Food price inflation has been picking up. There is a risk that Q3 CPI inflation exceeds the 3% top of the RBNZ’s target band. The bank is forecasting 3% for the quarter.
• On Wednesday, Q3 current account data is out and the deficit is expected to narrow to 4.8% of GDP but with it widening to $2.7bn from $2.32bn in Q2.
• There is also Westpac Q3 consumer confidence on Wednesday.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 22bps of easing is priced for October, with a cumulative 40bps by November 2025.

FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - Can The USD Break Lower Before FOMC ?

The BBDXY has had a range of 1197.50 - 1199.03 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1197, -0.05%. The USD could not follow through on Friday and remains frustratingly above its recent support. A sustained break below 1197/1195 is needed to regain the momentum lower and retest the year's lows towards 1180 where demand should return initially. A break sub 1180 would be extremely bearish, should the USD start another leg lower it would have big implications for FX and potentially see a lot of the recent ranges in G10 broken. With the FOMC approaching we might see the ranges continue until the market hears what Powell has to say about the potential new rate cutting cycle the market is pricing in.

• EUR/USD -  Asian range 1.1722 - 1.1748, Asia is currently trading 1.1730. The pair consolidated Friday night. EUR is still within its wider 1.1350-1.1850 range with a bias to the topside.
• GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3549 - 1.3568, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3565. The pair is back in the middle of its recent 1.3350-1.3650 range, but price action suggests it may be looking to retest the range highs.
• USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1197 - 7.1272, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1056, Asia is currently dealing around 7.1200. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2200/2500 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower. Above 7.2500 and we could see a test of the USD Shorts.
• Cross asset : SPX +0.10%, Gold $3644, US 10-Year 4.064%, BBDXY 1198, Crude Oil $63.06
• Data/Events : Germany Wholesale Price Index, Italy Trade Balance, EZ Trade Balance 

Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Trading Sideways On A 147 Handle

The USD/JPY range has been 147.37 - 147.79 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 147.40, -0.20% on a Japanese holiday. USD/JPY continues to trade sideways with no clear trend. The price remains in the middle of its recent 146-149 range, and we need a convincing break to see a clearer direction again. CFTC data shows leveraged funds paring back some of their short JPY position last week but remain core short, looking for this support to continue to hold. A move back below 145/146 is needed to potentially start seeing these positions being flushed out.

• MNI INTERVIEW: Powell Won't Signal String Of Fed Cuts-Lockhart. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will justify next week’s widely expected interest rate cut by citing rising downside risks to employment but refrain from signaling a string of cuts beyond September because the Fed must also contend with inflation heading in the wrong direction, former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told MNI.
• "JAPAN'S HAYASHI TO ANNOUNCE ENTRY IN LDP RACE TOMORROW: NIKKEI" - BBG
• "TAKAICHI LEADS LDP RACE AT 29%, KOIZUMI AT 25% IN YOMIURI POLL" - BBG
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 150.00($1.04b).Upcoming Close Strikes : 146.00($1.41b Sept 16), 150.00($1.49b Sept 16), 145.70($1.22b Sept 17) - BBG.
• CFTC data shows last week asset managers again added to their JPY longs again as they look to rebuild their position +87239( Last +78427), leveraged funds reduced their short position perhaps losing confidence the support will continue to hold -49591(Last -66914). 

Fig 1 : JPY CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Consolidates Around 0.6650

The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6641 - 0.6662 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6660, +0.20%. US Equities traded sideways as the market turned its focus towards the FOMC this week and what the potential upcoming cutting cycle could look like. The AUD consolidates around 0.6650, trying to find the momentum it needs to accelerate above this pivotal area. Should the USD break and extend lower we could see the AUD gain momentum above 0.6650/0.6700 and potentially target levels back towards 0.6900/0.7000. The price action suggests dips will be supported for now as we await confirmation of this potential break higher, the first buy-zone is back towards the 0.6550 area.

• Bloomberg - “Aussie to Extend March Higher as Shorts Bail, Yuan Climbs. AUD/USD is pressing into a higher range, fueled by yuan strength, looming Fed cuts and leveraged shorts scrambling to cover. Net Aussie shorts are the smallest since November last year, and on the present course are likely to turn into longs with the FOMC to provide a dovish rate cut this week.”
• MNI BRIEF: China's August Investment Slows To Five-year Low. China’s fixed-asset investment growth decelerated to 0.5% y/y in the Jan–Aug period from the previous 1.6%, marking the slowest pace since Aug 2020 and missing an expectation of 1.5%, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Monday.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6500(AUD309m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6600(AUD794m Sept 18) - BBG
• CFTC Data last week shows Asset managers slightly increasing their shorts -68333(Last -66025), the Leveraged community pulled back the shorts they had just started to rebuild -5081(Last -11860).
• AUD/JPY - Asia-Pac range 98.06 - 98.27, Asia is trading around 98.20. The pair consolidated its gains on Friday night, turning the focus back towards the 99.00/100.00 area. Dips back towards 96.50/97.00 should be expected to be supported now first up.

Fig 1: AUD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Doing Some Work Below 0.6000

The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5947 - 0.5966 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5965, +0.20%. US Equities traded sideways as the market turned its focus towards the FOMC this week and what the potential upcoming cutting cycle could look like. The NZD topped out just below 0.6000 as momentum higher stalled. The USD though is still looking vulnerable, which continues to support the NZD. A close back above 0.6000 would negate any semblance of the downward pressure it was exhibiting, but for those that have a bearish view this remains a decent entry point to express that. We might have to wait for the FOMC to get some clarity as CFTC Data shows positions are light with conviction obviously low.

• (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s services industry contracted for an 18th straight month in August, suggesting that an economic rebound in the third quarter could be more sluggish than expected. Reserve Bank Governor Christian Hawkesby said last week that early indicators of third-quarter activity gave him confidence of an economic rebound, and he reiterated that policymakers’ central projection is that the Official Cash Rate will be cut to 2.5% by the end of the year
• "NZ TREASURY SEES UNCERTAINTY OVER PACE OF 2H ECONOMIC RECOVERY, NZ TREASURY COMMENTS IN FORTNIGHTLY ECONOMIC UPDATE" - BBG
• China Weak Property Data Continues: Property Investment YTD YoY and Residential Property Sales YoY declined more than expected in August.  Property Investment YTD YoY fell -12.9%, its largest monthly decline. It has not recorded a positive monthly result since March 2022. Residential Property Sales YoY declined -7.0% in August, the worst result for 2025. It has not recorded a positive monthly result since July 2023.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5825(NZD1.01b Sept 17), 0.5900(NZD860m Sept 17), 0.6250(NZD427m Sept 17) - BBG
• CFTC Data of last week shows Asset Managers added slightly to their new short position in the NZD -5127(Last -4743), the Leveraged community have completely exited their short and have turned a fraction long +285(Last -225)..
• AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.1150 - 1.1176, currently trading 1.1175. The Cross is consolidating above 1.1100, dips back towards 1.1000/1.1050 should be supported now. A break above the multiple highs towards the 1.1200 area is needed to regain the momentum higher.

Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

ASIA STOCKS: China Kicks off the Week with Strong Gains

Following strong opposition from investors, the Korean government's policy to lower the capital gains tax threshold for equity investors has finally been dumped, marking the first major about face for the new government.  The NIKKEI is closed today for a public holiday, having closed Friday at new highs. The focus for investors for the week ahead will be the Federal Reserve meeting this week as markets globally hope for a rate cut.  

• The major bourse in China are off to a good start this week, with the Hang Seng up +0.30%, the CSI 300 +0.85%, Shanghai up +0.22% and Shenzhen up +0.65% on a day when economic data shows the economy continues to expand.  
• The KOSPI is up on the taxation news, by +0.50%.  
• The TAIEX in Taiwan one of the few decliners, down -0.20%.  
• The Jakarta Composite is up +0.75%
• The NIFTY 50 is opening with modest falls of -0.05%.  

OIL: Crude Trends Higher As Sanction Risk The Focus

Oil prices have trended higher in today’s APAC trading after rising over last week. WTI is up 0.5% to $63.03 following a peak of $63.13 earlier, while Brent is 0.5% higher at $67.33 after reaching $67.43. Current geopolitical risks are having the opposite effect to supply/demand fundamentals with a large market surplus expected in 2026. The USD index is slightly lower.

• Further sanctions on Russia are being discussed by the EU and US but President Trump has said that NATO needs to stop importing Russian crude (Turkey and Hungary are the main ones} before he’ll impose further restrictions. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the G7 should also place duties on countries buying Russian oil.
• Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure continued over the weekend.
• China’s August data was generally softer than consensus expected but it didn’t worry oil prices.
• The key event this week is the Fed’s 17 September decision. With a 25bp rate cut widely expected, attention will be on the tone of comments from Chair Powell to gauge the outlook for policy.
• Later US September Empire manufacturing and July euro area trade print. The ECB’s Lagarde and Schnabel speak. 

Gold Slightly Higher As Awaits Direction From The Fed This Week

Gold prices are off today’s low of $3626.66/oz to be up slightly at $3644.5. It reached a high of $3646.93. It has found support from a slightly lower US dollar. The key event for bullion this week will be Wednesday’s Fed decision (a 25bp cut is widely expected), the accompanying comments and Chair Powell’s tone. The outlook for Fed policy is likely to drive direction. 

• Gold continues to trade below the 9 September high of $3674.3 but it remains in a clear bull cycle. Initial support is at $3579.7, 8 September low.
• Silver is up 0.2% to $42.27 off the intraday high of $42.314. The trend remains bullish with the metal exceeding resistance at $42.173 today opening $42.323. The 20-day EMA is at $39.986.
• Equities are generally stronger with the S&P e-mini up 0.1% and CSI 300 +0.9% but ASX down 0.2%. Oil prices are higher with WTI +0.6% to $63.06/bbl. Copper is up 0.3%.
• Later US September Empire manufacturing and July euro area trade print. The ECB’s Lagarde and Schnabel speak. 

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL) 

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
15/09/2025	0900/1100	*	EU	Trade Balance
15/09/2025	1130/1330		EU	ECB Schnabel At EIB Chief Econ Meeting
15/09/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
15/09/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	Wholesale Trade
15/09/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/09/2025	1300/0900	*	CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
15/09/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
15/09/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
15/09/2025	1810/2010		EU	ECB Lagarde at Institut Montaigne Paris
15/09/2025	-		US	FOMC Meetings with S.E.P.
16/09/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment
16/09/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment
16/09/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants
16/09/2025	0600/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants
16/09/2025	0800/1000	***	IT	HICP (f)
16/09/2025	0900/1100	***	DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
16/09/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
16/09/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	EZ Industrial Production
16/09/2025	1215/0815	**	CA	CMHC Housing Starts
16/09/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	CPI
16/09/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
16/09/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Import/Export Price Index
16/09/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
16/09/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
16/09/2025	1315/0915	***	US	Industrial Production