MNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: Yen Gains Help Broader USD Dip

• USD/JPY collapsed back through 162.00 on headlines that Japan is looking to promote investment in Japanese financial assets by the GPIF and other similar funds. We also had a stronger June PPI y/y print, while government ministers tried to re-assure the market on BoJ independence. Cash JGBs are flat to 11bps richer, with the long-end leading.
• The USD is mostly softer elsewhere but away from lows. NZD/USD outperformance has continued. Regional equity sentiment has been firm, led by South Korean gains.
• Looking ahead, Norwegian CPI data is scheduled on Friday, ahead of Canada June employment data, which headlines the calendar.  

MARKETS

US TSYS: Little Changed, Light Calendar Today

TYU6 is dealing at 109-08, -00+ from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.

• Cash bonds are ~1bp richer in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's modest rally. There is no scheduled US data on tap today, with the focus on next week's CPI and PPI data on Tuesday/Wednesday, respectively.
• ICYMI, NY Fed's Williams made comments in a moderated discussion Thursday to those he's made in recent weeks about inflation being too high now but expected to recede in the coming quarters.
• MNI Techs: TYU6 currently +8 at 109-08 (10Y yld -.0420 at 4.5371%). Treasuries maintain a softer tone despite today's gains. This week's move lower reinforces a bear threat. The move down resulted in a breach of 109-06, the Jun 22 low, signalling scope for an extension towards 108-25, the Jun 8 low. Key support and the bear trigger is 108-08+, the May 19 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 109-25+, the Jul 2 / 6 high. A break of it would be bullish and expose 110-10+, the Jun 26 high and bull trigger.

Bloomberg Finance LP

STIR: $-Bloc Year-End Pricing Unchanged Over Past Week Except For NZ Firming

Interest-rate expectations through December 2026 were little changed across the $-bloc over the past week except for New Zealand, which is 15bps firmer. 

• $-bloc pricing relative to late February (pre-war) for December 2026 is 19-89bps firmer across the $-bloc, with the US leading and Canada lagging. Australia is 34bps firmer and New Zealand +45bps.
• The highlight over the past week was the RBNZ Policy Meeting, which saw the OCR lifted by 25bps to 2.50%, as expected, in a unanimous decision. It decided that it was “appropriate” to remove some accommodation to return inflation to the 2% band mid-point and prevent further easing in financial conditions.
• Further removal of monetary stimulus is likely, but the RBNZ kept its options open regarding timing stating that it would be “highly uncertain” and very data dependent. However, Governor Breman two more hikes before year end were “not not realistic”. This opens the two remaining 2026 Monetary Policy Statement meetings, which include updated staff forecasts, on 2 September and 9 December to further tightening with a possible pause on 28 October.
• The next major regional policy event will be the BoC policy meeting on 15 July. Currently, the market attaches ~11% probability of a rate cut at that meeting.
• Looking ahead to December 2026, current market-implied policy rates expected are as follows: US (FOMC): 3.96%, +33bp; Canada (BOC): 2.44%, +19bps; Australia (RBA): 4.47%, +12ps; and New Zealand (RBNZ): 2.99%, +49bps.

  Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR (%)

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI 

AUSSIE BONDS: Grinds Higher On data Light Day, AU-US 10Y Diff Back At 30bps

ACGBs (YM +2.5 & XM +3.0) are stronger, aligning with US tsys, on a data-light day. 

• Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest rally. There is no scheduled US data on tap today, with the focus on next week's CPI and PPI data on Tuesday/Wednesday, respectively.
• Oil is up again Friday as fighting escalates again in Iran. Iran and US exchanged strikes again Thursday with the US saying it hit 90 military targets, some near the Strait. Iran says 14 people have been killed in the past two days.
• Cash ACGBs are 3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +31bps.
• The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +3 across contracts.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing shows modest tightening across all meetings, with the probability of a 25bp hike rising from 22% for August to 54% by December 2026.  
• On Monday, the local calendar will be empty, ahead of Consumer and Business Confidence measures on Tuesday.  
• Next week, ACGB supply will be greater than the recent average weekly issuance of $1000mn. The AOFM plans to sell A$400mn of the 5.00% 21 June 2036 bond on Tuesday, A$700mn of the 4.50% 21 April 2033 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.50% 21 May 2030bond on Friday.

Bloomberg Finance LP

JGBS: Sharp Bull-Flattener After Fin Min Call To Invest Locally

JGB futures are sharply higher, +64 compared to settlement levels, but off session bests.

• Japan's corporate goods prices rose 7.1% in June from a year earlier, the fastest pace since early 2023.
• (Bloomberg) “ Japan's finance minister called for the nation's massive pension funds to increase investments in domestic assets. The remarks led to a jump in the yen and a drop in bond yields, with the yen strengthening and bonds rallying. Any changes to the Government Pension Investment Fund's investment strategy would have to go through an established process and could have broad implications, including a potential boost for the yen and Japanese equities.”
• The prospect that Japan's GPIF could bring funds home to buy JGBs is helping to send yields lower across the curve amid heavy short covering in JGB futures.
• Cash US tsys are also 1-2bps richer in today's Asia-Pac session, extending yesterday's rally amid a tapering of concerns regarding a re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict. There is no scheduled US data on tap today, with the focus on next week's CPI and PPI data on Tuesday/Wednesday, respectively.
• Cash JGBs are flat to 11bps richer, with the long-end leading.
• Swap rates are 1-2bps higher. Longer swap spreads are sharply wider.
• On Monday, the local calendar will be empty.

Bloomberg Finance LP

JAPAN DATA: PPI Y/Y Above 7%, Import Prices Up Near 30% Y/Y In June

Japan June PPI saw the m/m print as expected at 0.4%, but the prior was revised higher to 1.1% (initially reported as a 0.9% gain). This helped the y/y gain print at 7.1%, above the consensus estimate of 6.8% (the prior was revised up to 6.6%, versus the initial 6.3% outcome). This is the strongest PPI (y/y print) since early 2023. The chart below plots the y/y PPI against nationwide CPI, also y/y. The surge in PPI is likely to lead to some upside CPI pressures, albeit not with a one-for-one beta. Import prices rose 1.3% in the month, slowing from the 2.9% gain in May, but up 29.7%y/y. This is the strongest y/y rise since late 2022. Overall the data should add marginally to the BoJ rate hike outlook. Oct hike odds are nudging higher, but only gradually. July and Sep pricing remains quite flat. A Dec hike is nearly fully priced, while Oct has around 16bps priced. 

• Still, Japan's Economic Minister Kiuchi has played down the PPI rise, noting it reflects higher oil prices and that CPI pressures remain moderate. The weak yen impact domestic inflation with a lag Kiuchi stated, but might not be that large.
• Looking at the detail for today's PPI print shows petroleum, coal up 3.0%m/m, while overall manufacturing rose 0.5%m/m. Lumber rose 2.0%m/m, but agricultural as a whole fell by 2.1%m/m, the second straight decline. Most other sub-categories posted modest rises.
• In y/y terms, only one category is in negative territory (iron and steel). Strong y/y rises continue for commodity sub sectors, (petroleum up 22.8%), but IT is also up firmly, +14.5%y/y. Base effects from 2025 are also likely helping y/y gains. 

Fig 1: Japan PPI and CPI Y/Y 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI 

Japan Assets Rally As FinMin Aims To Encourage GPIF Inv In Local Assets

Japan assets have received a boost this morning post comments from the FinMin around encouraging investment in Japan assets by GPIF. Via BBG: "“One priority is to encourage households, as well as pension funds including the GPIF, to increase their investment in Japanese financial assets. We intend to pursue policies that support that objective,” Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said, referring to the Government Pension Investment Fund." Adding, “We want to ensure that the public can directly benefit from Japan’s economic growth,” Katayama told reporters at a regular press conference on Friday." (also via BBG). 

• The table below presents the asset allocation split for GPIF, as at end of Mar 2026. See this Hidden PDFfor more details from GPIF.  GPIF runs a rough 25% allocation model to local stocks, bonds and overseas bonds and stocks. In USD terms, total assets are around $1.81trln.
• Given the size of the sums involved, any asset allocation shift away from overseas and back to local assets would clearly benefit local asset markets.
• Such shifts would take time, and more details are likely needed on any asset allocation shifts. Still, market participants could front run such moves. USD/JPY is near 161.50 in latest dealings up around 0.60% in yen terms.  Local stocks are higher, led by the NKY 225, up around 2.3% (although tech led gains are evident elsewhere).
• This could also have an impact on the ever burgeoning "Carry-Trade", could this possibly be an official attempt to stop the constant selling of Yen to add to these positions ? A huge repatriation program  would certainly impact these stretched trades and also have implications for Global risk.
• JGB yields are weaker, led by the back end. The 20yr is down 12bps to 3.77%., The 10yr off 10bps to 2.78%.
• BBG also notes J.P.Morgan work from earlier in the year on potential GPIF support for JGB issuance, see this link. 

Source: GPIF 

FOREX: USD - BBDXY Testing 1216-1218 Support As Asia Sells USD's

The BBDXY has had a range today of 1216.23 - 1220.17 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1218,-0.20%. The USD dropped very quickly in our session as the market reacted to the GPIF headlines and the move lower in USD/JPY. The mess in the Middle-East continues to be fluid but for now risk seems to be happy to ignore it. Leveraged assets like Gold and Bitcoin both seem to be trying to find a base which again points to risk potentially stabilising and building for a move higher again. Does London go with this indiscriminate USD selling or do some of these moves get walked back ? Firstly the GPIF strategy needs to be confirmed and secondly if it is to be implemented it has huge implications for Cross-Yen and the Carry-trade. The first support which continues to hold remains 1216-1218 and through here the 1208-1212 area comes back into play. Having touched the initial target toward the 1225-1230 area, I thought we could see some sort of a pullback but I remain skewed toward fading a dip around 1210, looking for a retest of the highs at some point.  

• EUR/USD -  Asian range 1.1429-1.1461, Asia is currently trading 1.1440. The pair is challenging the 1.1450-1.1460 area as the USD gets sold across the board in our session. On the day, I am watching to see if the market's reaction to sell USD’s and ask questions later is the correct response. Should Japan get the GPIF to change its allocation of foreign/domestic assets, the numbers involved could have a significant impact on both the “Carry-trade” and global risk. I remain skewed in favour of fading rallies with initial resistance right here 1.1450-1.1465 and then the more pivotal 1.1495-1.1535 area,  looking for the pair to turn lower again at some point.
• GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3401-1.3452, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3430. The pair continues to squeeze higher back toward 1.3450 in our session. I continue to err on the short-side but I suspect this move lower will need to top out pretty soon to keep the bears in control. On the day, price is challenging some important resistance around the 1.3420 area, through here and 1.3500 comes back into play. I am looking for the move to top out somewhere up here and retest the 1.3000-1.3150 area at some point.
• Data: Germany June CPI, France June CPI (F)

Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

JPY: USD/JPY - GPIF Flow Would Be A Game-Changer, But Will They Follow Through

The USD/JPY range today has been 161.29-162.43 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 161.55, -0.50%. The pair collapsed back through 162.00 on headlines that Japan is looking to promote investment in Japanese financial assets by the GPIF and other similar funds. The GPIF allocation of assets always seems to be the Joker card that Japan plays when it feels the “Carry-Trade” is getting out of hand. Should Japan get the GPIF to change its allocation of foreign/domestic assets, the numbers involved could have a significant impact on both the “Carry-trade” and global risk. It amounts to Quasi-Intervention but the reverberations should they actually follow through with it have far-reaching implications. Do they have the fortitude to blow up one of the key reasons risk has soared to such lofty heights, time will tell. On the day, the first support is toward between 161.00-161.50 and then the 160.00 area. This is a slow burn trade though and should not have an immediate effect on price, though if confirmed I have no doubt those sitting long to their eye-balls will be told to start paring back. That's when the exit door together with liquidity shrinks very quickly.

• “Japan Urges Its Pension Funds to Invest More at Home; Yen Gains.” - BBG https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/THXRGCKK3NY8
• “JAPAN'S GPIF SPOKESPERSON:  AWARE OF FINANCE MINISTER KATAYAMA'S COMMENTS, DECLINE TO COMMENT - [RTRS]"
• MNI POLICY: Weak Yen Adds Risk To BOJ's Policy Direction. Bank of Japan officials are concerned that only a weaker yen will persuade Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that further rate hikes are necessary, but if markets begin dictating monetary policy, the eventual tightening cycle could prove steeper than if the BOJ responded primarily to economic and inflation developments, MNI understands
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 161.00($645m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 160.50($3.42b July 13), 160.50($1.73b July 15), 163.00($1.61b July 13) - BBG.
• The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 61 Points

Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

AUD/USD - Trying To Break Above 0.6960 As USD/JPY Drags The USD Down

The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6934-0.6970 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6960, +0.30%. The AUD/USD surged higher attempting to break back above the 0.6960 area as the USD got indiscriminately sold across the board in reaction to USD/JPY’s moving lower thanks to the GPIF headlines. I am watching to see if the market's reaction to sell USD’s and ask questions later is the correct response. Should Japan get the GPIF to change its allocation of foreign/domestic assets, the numbers involved could have a significant impact on both the “Carry-trade” and global risk, though it is a slow burn and would take awhile to truly have an impact. On the day, I will be watching to see if the AUD can build on this move above the 0.6960 area or will London walk it back ? Should it hold above there then the 0.7000-0.7050 area will come back into play. I continue to be skewed toward fading a rally above 0.7000 at first asking, looking for another test of the 0.6850 support at some point.

• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6900(AUD572m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6875(AUD625m July 13), 0.6900(AUD849m July 15), 0.6960(AUD474m July 14) - BBG
• The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 34 Points

Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

NZD/USD - Extends Rebound, Challenging The 0.5800 Area

The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5748-0.5793 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 0.5780, +0.40%. The NZD has extended higher again today touching just short of 0.5800 as the USD got sold across the board in Asia today. Having broken higher overnight it has very quickly moved toward the next level which should offer some tougher resistance. The market though has been caught quite short and with liquidity always at a premium in the NZD there is a risk the bounce could be higher than most expect. On the day, pivotal resistance is in this 0.5770-0.5820 area which should prove to be tough at first asking and I would be skewed toward fading this bounce on its initial attempt.  

• “Japan Repatriation Push Puts Global Assets on Notice. The government-backed repatriation from the GPIF would trigger an institutional domino effect, establishing a structural bid for JGBs and, to a lesser degree, support for the yen.” - BBG
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data:  none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5770(NZD338m July 15) - BBG
• The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 42 Points

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

ASIA STOCKS: SK Outflows Halt, But Improvement Not Evident, Indonesia Lags SEA

South Korea recorded net inflows in the past two sessions, helping curb the degree of 5-day outflow momentum, although we are still negative. The sharp retracement in the Kospi from June record highs, combined with a stronger won backdrop, may have encouraged some offshore inflows to return to local stocks. Today, the Kospi is rallying strongly, up close to 5%. Broader tech sentiment has improved in US markets and the successful launch of SK Hynix's ADR in the US has been a factor in aiding sentiment in recent sessions. Still, per BBG's NBUY function we aren't seeing any further offshore buying so far today, with close to $265mn in net selling (mainly in electronic stocks). Hence it remains to be seen if we have reached a trough in terms of outflow momentum.

• Taiwan net selling has been quite strong in the past 5 trading sessions, even as US led tech equity sentiment improved. Local markets are shut today due to Typhoon Bavi, so we may not get a fresh update on offshore flows until markets re-open.
• Indian inflows have continued to recover, even as local stock indices have struggled to build on early July gains. USD/INR stability may be helping, with the pair comfortably under May cycle highs.
• In South East Asia, Thailand remains a standout from a positive inflow standpoint. The SET index is trying to consolidate a break above 1600. Trends elsewhere were also more positive yesterday with lower oil prices potentially aiding.
• Indonesia continues to struggle though, with the week's warning from S&P DJI on potential market reclassification to frontier status a likely headwind. 

Table 1: Asia Markets Net Equity Flows 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI 

ASIA STOCKS: Tech Lead Vol as AI ETFs Under Microscope in Korea

Tech heavy bourses in broader Asia are sitting on losses for the week with the KOSPI the worst performer for the week, despite a solid rebound Friday.  

Japanese equities losses were capped despite bouts of global risk aversion, with investors increasingly rotating beyond AI-related stocks into defence, infrastructure and industrial names.  Semiconductor equipment stocks remained volatile as investors reassessed AI valuations, although the long-term AI investment cycle continues to support earnings expectations.  The weaker yen continued to underpin exporters, while expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan's July meeting remained an important macro focus.  The NIKKEI is up +1.85% Friday, but holding onto weekly losses of -1.05%

The KOSPI Vol has been extreme with the leverage in the system on full display.  Authorities have woken up to the impact of the 2x leveraged AI ETFs and are now talking bans,  helping the KOSPI to jump +5.3% Friday, whilst holding onto weekly losses of -5.06%.  Expect the volatility to continue into next week as the BOK meets on the 16th and is expected to raise rates.  This will feed into further vol and weigh on KOSPI performance and could be heightened should the outlook be hawkish.  

China's bourses are leading the region with the Hang Seng up +1.8% today and +4.8% for the week whilst the CSI 300 and Shanghai hold onto modest weekly gains. China’s equity and bond markets have fundamentally decoupled from global macro trends (a thematic we have noted for some time).  June CPI out this week showed that authorities have successfully protected the economy against the perils of oil related global inflation.  

OIL: Largest Weekly Gain Since May; VOL to remain high

• Oil is up again Friday as fighting escalates again in Iran.  
• Iran and US exchanged strikes again Thursday with the US saying it hit 90 military targets, some near the Strait. Iran says 14 people have been killed in the past two days.
• US military officials explicitly confirmed to Al Jazeera and the BBC that the United States has not conducted any airstrikes within Iran in the last several hours.  
• Despite President Trump previously declaring the interim ceasefire memorandum over, US officials note that technical negotiations remain ongoing. International mediators from Pakistan and Qatar are actively working to bring both nations back to the negotiating table.
• Brent is up +0.62% Friday to US$76.75 and is now up +6.4% - its largest weekly gain since May.  
• WTI is up +0.60% to US$72.52 and has delivered weekly gains of +5.5%
• The weekend will see focus on whether bombing resumes or talks dominate.  
• The outlook for oil over the coming days is for increased volatility as geopolitical risks stand off against global macroeconomic signals.  What is likely is that prices stabilize near to  $76 for Brent and $72 for WTI.   
• Whilst geopolitical signals will be derived from military action, the next macro signal will come from June CPI in the US out 14th.  CPI YoY is forecast to moderate to +3.8% from +4.2%.  Whilst the FED does not have a CPI target, current inflation metrics are well above targets and an upside surprise could bring forward rate hike expectations

GOLD: Steadies Near Key EMA; Outlook Hinges on Geopolitics in ST

• Gold is trending sideways in Asia Friday and holding onto week to date losses.  
• Despite a +1.14% rally in the US trading day Thursday, at US$4,123 and down -1.1% for the week.  
• Gold's rally stalled near to the 20-day EMA of $4,151 which it has trended below since early May.  
• Despite oil prices resuming their rally today, gold appears (for now) set to trend near to the EMA.  There is some evidence of upward momentum building - given the MACD line above the Signal line.  
• Looking ahead to next week - gold's outlook may likely hinge on actions in Iran which at this stage remain elevated and will ultimately feed inflation expectations.  
• US markets have brought forward their rate hike pricing to almost a full hike in October and a rapid decline in the geopolitical outlook could see October priced in and September in focus.  This environment could see gold break lower and back to near term lows 

SOUTH KOREA: KTB Yields Higher on Week as BOK Nears; 1-Yr Impacted by KOSPI Vol

• In a week where KTB yields shifted higher ahead of the BOK decision next week, the exception was the 1-Yr which was directly impacted by the volatility in the KOSPI.
• The 10-Yr KTB yield is flat Friday at 4.24%, whilst higher by +4bps for the week.  
• BOK Governor Shin explicitly stated this week that "there needs to be a rate hike at an appropriate time," pointing to sticky consumer inflation remaining well above the 2% target (June CPI hit 3.2%).
• Markets have interpreted this as preparing the market for a hike at the meeting next week, with yields finishing near to their highs for the week Friday.  
• The exception is the 1-YR KTB which is down -2bps at 3.341%.  The 1-Yr KTB has benefited from the KOSPI volatility as investors sell shares - with being recycled into 1-Yr bonds.  With the KOSPI down over 6% this week, but +80% YTD - investors are cashing out.  The yield differential between O/N at 2.50% and 1-Yr at 3.37% makes the 1-Yr seem attractive as a place to park cash should the KOSPI correct more.  
• Looking ahead to next week, the focus ahead of the BOK on July 16 will be the KRW2.8tn 10-Yr on July 13 ; with recent longer dated auctions showing reduced demand.
• Expect yields next week to maintain some upward pressure into the BOK - with the 10-Yr in a 4.20-4.30% range

ASIA FX: KRW Can't Re-Test 1500, Still +2.5% July To Date, USD/CNH Breaks Lower

In North Asia FX, CNH has rallied, supported by on-going CNY fixing gains, while KRW has struggled, despite a generally softer USD backdrop and fresh FX rhetoric from the authorities. Taiwan markets are out today due to a typhoon. 

• Spot USD/CNH has fallen around 0.20% so far today, the pair last near 6.7830. This largely matched BBDXY index falls, with focus on a sharp JPY rally (as the FinMin called for greater Pension investment in Japan assets, sparking JPY repatriation hopes). USD/CNH got to lows of 6.7785 before stabilizing. This breaks a run of generally higher lows in the pair since mid June. The USD/CNY fixing also printed under 6.8000 for the first time since 2023, so underpinning the resilient yuan backdrop against firmer USD index levels.
• Next week we get June trade data, along June home prices and activity figures, along with Q2 GDP. Market consensus expects annual GDP growth to cool to +4.5% YoY, down from +5.0% expansion recorded in Q1. Weak consumer spending and a lingering housing slump have impacted Q2 activity. June's retail sales data will reveal whether mid-year promotions moved the needle. Early indicators point to soft household confidence, making private consumption the biggest drag on the Q2 print and has prompted further government support. Still, weaker data outcomes have yet to impact yuan sentiment, with valuations, the firmer CNY fixing bias and corporate FX conversion all outweighing.
• Spot USD/KRW hasn't been able to re-test sub 1500, the pair last near 1511, up around 0.20% so far today, leaving the won underperforming broader USD softness. The authorities noted the local FX is still out of line with economic fundamentals, but they expect greater exporter support in H2 for the won (via forwards). Equity outflow pressures have slowed as the Kospi rebounds, but it is too early to say if a trend improvement is here. SK Hynix inflows will be in focus up to the middle of July, although the won is up 2.5% so far in July, with MYR (up 0.41%) so some outperformance is potentially already priced in.
• Next week, focus will be on the BoK. A rate rise would be a step forward in combating inflation but also help to support the struggling Won.  Long held concerns about the overheated property market would be met with a rate rise also.  A rate rise in July is consensus and we see the growing likelihood for 1-2 further rate rises this year. 

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)  

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
10/07/2026	0600/0800	***	DE	Germany CPI (f)
10/07/2026	0600/0800	***	DE	Germany CPI (f)
10/07/2026	0615/0815		EU	ECB Vujcic Panel at Greece Annual Economist Roundtable
10/07/2026	0645/0845	***	FR	HICP (f)
10/07/2026	0700/0300	***	CZ	Czech Republic Final CPI
10/07/2026	0800/1000	*	IT	Industrial Production
10/07/2026	-	***	CN	Money Supply
10/07/2026	-	***	CN	New Loans
10/07/2026	-	***	CN	Social Financing
10/07/2026	1200/0800	**	BR	Brazil Final CPI
10/07/2026	1200/0800	*	US	NY Fed SOFR
10/07/2026	1230/0830	*	CA	Building Permits
10/07/2026	1230/0830	***	CA	Labour Force Survey
10/07/2026	1230/0830	***	CA	Labour Force Survey
10/07/2026	1300/0900	*	US	NY Fed EFFR
10/07/2026	1600/1200	***	US	USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
10/07/2026	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
10/07/2026	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
10/07/2026	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly