MNI Europe Pi: Gilt And OAT Exceptions To Broader Flatness

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• European bond futures structural positioning is unusually flat across almost all Eurex contracts, in some contrast to the very mixed late June positioning between longs/shorts/flats.
• It's still some way off the shorts that prevailed before the tentative US-Iran ceasefire reached in early June.
• However we note that latest trade (in the week to July 7) is indicative of short-setting and long reduction.
• GERMANY: German structural positioning is entirely flat, across all four contracts. This is in some contrast to much of the preceding 3 months in which Bund and Buxl were short (and Buxl for long before that; though Schatz and Bobl were flat in our last update in late June). No mixed trade here: the last week saw OI and price movements consistent with short-setting across all four contracts.
• OAT: OAT structural positioning is unchanged at long, where it has seemingly settled since early May vs short in most of the prior 6 months. The latest week's trade was indicative of long reduction.
• GILT: Gilt structural positioning has moved into very long  territory as of late June, vs the flat/short seen most of 2026. The latest week saw some long reduction however.
• BTP: BTP positioning has fallen back into flat from long in our previous update. The latest week of trade saw some long reduction.