MNI EM Credit Weekly - Floodgates Open

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Positive market sentiment opened the floodgates to issuance across regions. Reduced Middle East energy imports weigh on Asia, while issuers leaned into the supportive backdrop of tighter dollar spreads. The Indonesian Rupiah remained on the backfoot however, potentially leaving only a rate rise as a viable option to support the currency. In CEEMEA financials, inaugural issuance came from Eldik Bank, alongside TVLRO, while corps including OCP and CANPCK also tapped the market. Türkiye issued a 5Y dollar-bond, and Brazil debuted in euros, with Brazilian corporates still attracting demand in primary. Market impact was limited from the surprising Peru presidential election first round results as voters headed to a second-round. Colombia’s planned $4bn buyback helped offset negative government rhetoric.
• In Asia, the focus will be on Bank Indonesia, which will announce its rate decision. Defending the Rupiah remains a priority, but with USDIDR above 17,100, BI may be running out of room (survey sees no change at 4.75%). Indonesian banks are also reporting results. Primary should stay robust, though much depends on the weekend’s peace talks. In CEEMEA, attention turns to GCC bank earnings, we watch for trends in asset quality and profitability, whilst we expect capital adequacy to remain conservative.  LATAM also enters earnings season, with key Mexican names reporting.
• Sovereigns mentioned: INDON, REPHUN, UKRAIN, SLOVGB, ROMANI, TURKEY, JORDAN, KAZAKS, PKSTAN, SOAF, ANGOL, NGERIA, GHANA, GABON, DRCONG, ZAMBIN, COLOM, BRAZIL, PERU, ARGENT
• Corporates mentioned: LNGFOR, SHFLIN, BHP, FOSUNI, ICICI, BCDHGR, NHNCOR, KORAIR, BBNIIJ, CIMAU, EVRGTT, CEZCP, CZGRPA, PKOBP, CANPCK, TLVRO, NAVOIM, ELDIK, ALDAR, DAMACR, ABDPOC, PIFKSA, CBQKQD, QPETRO, BKMBOM, OMGRID, GDZELE, SGLSJ, ESKOM, IVN, OCPMR, NUTRES, CSNABZ, AEGEBZ, BANBRA, BEEFBZ, JEFPBZ, SOTMCL