EM ASIA CREDIT: MNI EM Credit Market Update - Asiav
May-14 04:05
Asia EM credit has a weaker bias with govie/agency $ spreads up to 3bp wider, Indonesia being the outlier (+3bp). In contrast equities are in positive territory, with for instance the Indonesian JCI +1.6% on the day. In terms of newsflow, several results out overnight, notably Bharti Airtel and JD.com which both reported strong improvements in EBITDA. We also see a couple of new issues, with Pertamina Persero coming with the previously mandated deal, a new $5y. We estimated a FV yield of 5.1% versus IPT of 5.55% area.
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JGBS: Bear-Steepener, BoJ Gov Ueda Reiterates Policy Stance
Apr-14 03:34
After the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are stronger, +22 compared to the settlement levels, sitting in near the middle of today’s range.
- BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated his stance that he won’t have any preconceptions over the conduct of monetary policy after uncertainties have risen due to US tariff measures. The central bank will take appropriate policy steps by carefully examining the economy and inflation, Ueda said in response to questions in parliament. (per BBG)
- Cash US tsys are 2-4bps richer, with a steepening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session after Friday's heavy session. The big news over the weekend was President Trump's exemptions on smartphones, computers, and other electronics, though this has been downplayed over the weekend as a procedural step. They will be looking at the whole electronic supply chain.
- Cash JGBs are 1-8bps cheaper across benchmarks, with a steepener curve. The benchmark 20-year yield is 3.7bps higher at 2.365% ahead of tomorrow's supply.
- The swap curve has twist-steepened, with rates are 2bps lower to 2bps higher. Swap spreads are mixed.
- The local calendar will see Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data later.
CHINA: Exporters Get Ahead of Tariffs.
Apr-14 03:17
- China’s exports in USD terms outpaced estimates for March.
- Up in USD terms +12.4%, the result dramatically exceeded +4.6% estimates and the -3.0% February contraction.
- Of broader concern is the decline in imports, which contracted -4.3% YoY outpacing the forecast of -2.1%.
- The trade balance unsurprisingly surged to USD$102.6bn.
- The export data no doubt is inflated as exporters looked to get ahead of the tariffs now announced and March may prove to be an anomaly.
- The decline in imports speaks loudly as to the general malaise for the domestic consumer, something that is expected to predict further monetary policy easing soon.
MNI: CHINA MAR EXPORTS +12.4% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +4.4% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
Apr-14 03:11
- CHINA MAR EXPORTS +12.4% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +4.4% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
- CHINA MAR IMPORTS -4.3% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +2.1% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
- CHINA MAR TRADE SURPLUS +$102.6 BLN VS MEDIAN +$74.4 BLN
