ECB: MNI ECB Review: Bar To Cuts Pushed A Little Higher Again

The Bank for International Settlements estimates the growth impact of announced US tariffs on US "short-term growth" at around -1.0 percentage points according to an economic bulletin published earlier today.

• That is within the range of other estimates from existing literature they cite (see chart B below).
• For the Euro area, they see the negative tariff impact as non-material.

Elsewhere in the bulletin, they comment on the broader effects of tariffs on metrics including financial conditions and trade diversion. Link here: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull110.pdf

A new Yahoo Finance/Marist survey has found that, "Nearly half (45%) of adults describe the cost of living in their area as not very affordable or not affordable at all," and "One in 3 Americans say their financial situation has deteriorated in the past year."

• Marist notes: "Earlier this year, our 2025 State of Savings report found that about 35% of Americans were very or completely dissatisfied with the amount of money they had saved over the past year. More than halfway into 2025, not much has changed, and only about 1 in 10 Americans feel completely secure with their financial cushion."
• Separately, The Conference Board reports: “US consumers are now less likely to factor country of origin—even the US—into their product buying decisions than they were just three years ago. Despite aggressive federal efforts to promote domestic production, the power of “Made in USA” to influence buying decisions fell 18% since 2022.”
• Denise Dahlhoff at The Conference Board said: “Country-of-origin cues still matter—but their influence is slipping. As price concerns intensify, many US consumers appear to associate ‘made in’ labels with elevated prices due to generally higher domestic production costs as well as tariffs on foreign-made goods.”

Figure 1: Response to question: “If you bought a product in the past and liked it, and discovered it was made in one of the following countries, how likely would you be to buy it again?”

Source: Conference Board

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 1.3620 High Jul 10 
• RES 2: 1.3589 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.3510 Low Aug 12
• PRICE: 1.3489 @ 15:59 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 1.3000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle   

Prices traded higher again Tuesday, further building on the gains posted after the break of the 50-day EMA on the August BoE rate decision. This firms the speed of the recovery off the 1.3142 pullback low and signals a greater probability of a bullish reversal. For now, S/T momentum is still pointed higher, with the Jul 24 high of 1.3589 the next notable upside level. While the bounce off the pullback low persists, the more medium-term trend remains bearish - but the risk of a return to recent lows has fallen.