MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Trend Points North

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Key support lies at 7292.25, the Jun 11 low. A continuation higher would open 7693.75, the Jun 2 high and bull trigger. The trend needle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures continues to point north, however, a sell-off this week highlights a corrective cycle that remains in play for now. Attention turns to the next key support area around the 50-day EMA - at 6159.19. A clear break of the 50-day average would strengthen a bear threat. Key resistance is at 6462.00, the Jul 6 high.                
• In FX, EURUSD is trading closer to its recent highs. A S/T corrective cycle is in play The pair has recently pierced resistance at 1.1454, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery, towards 1.1533, the 50-day EMA. A bearish trend condition remains intact, highlighted by MA studies that are in a bear-mode position. The bear trigger is 1.1325, the June 24 low. GBPUSD maintains a firmer tone. A fresh cycle high this week reinforces the bull theme. The rally has resulted in a breach of the 50–day EMA at 1.3368. A clear break of the EMA undermines the recent bear theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery, towards 1.3460, 61.8% of the May 1 - Jun 24 bear leg. It is still possible that recent gains are corrective. A reversal would mark the end of the correction. First support lies at 1.3333, the 20-day EMA. A bullish theme in USDJPY remains intact and - for now - the latest pullback is considered corrective. The key short-term resistance and the bull trigger to watch is 162.84, the Jun 1 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 163.93, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 12 low. Key support is 160.39, the 50-day EMA.   
• On the commodity front, the trend set-up in Gold remains bearish and the latest shallow recovery is considered corrective. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position -  this highlights a dominant downtrend. A continuation of the bear leg would open the $3900.00 handle next. Firm resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at $4318.0. A bearish trend structure in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently traded through a key support at $75.45, the Apr 17 low. This strengthened the bear theme and opens $65.95, 76.4% of the Dec 16 - May 18 bull leg. Initial firm resistance is at $79.51, the 50-day EMA.     
• In the FI space, a short-term bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact. This week’s sharp pullback has seen the contract trade through the 50-day EMA - currently at 126.20, reinforcing a bear theme. The break lower signals scope for 124.88, the Jun 10 and 11 low and a key short-term support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 126.47, the 20-day EMA. A break of this hurdle is required to signal a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Gilt futures have traded sharply lower this week, highlighting an extension of the current bear cycle. Wednesday’s move lower resulted in a break of a key support at 87.28, the Jun 8 low. This suggests scope for a deeper retracement and sights are on 86.95 next, the 61.8% retracement of the May 15 - Jun 25 bull leg. Initial firm resistance to watch is 89.12, the Jul 6 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 88.59.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle 

• RES 4: 1.1609 Trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 17 high
• RES 3: 1.1529 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 1.1500 Low Jun 8
• RES 1: 1.1473 High Jul 02
• PRICE: 1.1438 @ 06:24 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 1.1362/25 Low Jul 1 / Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1299 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1210 Low May 29 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.1111 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull leg 

EURUSD is trading closer to its recent highs. A S/T corrective cycle is in play The pair has recently pierced an initial resistance at 1.1454, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery, towards 1.1533, the 50-day EMA. A bearish trend condition remains intact, highlighted by MA studies that are in a bear-mode position. The bear trigger is 1.1325, the June 24 low. Clearance of it would mark a resumption of the downtrend.   

GBPUSD TECHS: S/T Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.3509 High May 25     
• RES 3: 1.3485 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3460 61.8% retracement  of the May 1 - Jun 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3452 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3426 @ 06:34 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 1.3333 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.3219/3140 Low Jul 1 / Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.3038 Low Nov 20 ‘25

GBPUSD maintains a firmer tone. A fresh cycle high on Thursday reinforces the bull theme. The rally has resulted in a breach of the 50–day EMA at 1.3368. A clear break of the EMA undermines the recent bear theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery, towards 1.3460, a Fibonacci level. It is still possible that recent gains are corrective. A reversal would mark the end of the correction. First support lies at 1.3333, the 20-day EMA.   

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8694 High Jun 22 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 0.8625 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.8590 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.8575 High Jul 6 
• PRICE: 0.8520 @ 06:44 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 0.8518 Low Jul 9
• SUP 2: 0.8508 Low Jun 27 ‘25
• SUP 3: 0.8468 61.8% retrace of the Dec 19 ‘24 - Nov 14 ‘25 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4 ‘25   

EURGBP conditions remain bearish and a fresh cycle low this week strengthens the bear theme. A sharp sell-off last week resulted in a clear break of 0.8610, the Mar 16 low. The breach highlights an important M/T bearish development and paves the way for an extension towards 0.8508, the Jun 27 2025 low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8590, the 20-day EMA.        

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 163.93 Top of a bull channel drawn from Feb 12 low 
• RES 3: 163.62 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 9 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 2: 163.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 162.84 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 161.47 @ 07:18 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 161.29 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 160.49 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 159.58 Low Jun 11
• SUP 4: 158.74 Low May 25  

A bullish theme in USDJPY remains intact and - for now - the latest pullback is considered corrective. The key short-term resistance and the bull trigger to watch is 162.84, the Jun 1 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 163.93, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 12 low. Note that MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support is 160.39, the 50-day EMA.  

EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Resistance

• RES 4: 187.95 High Apr 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 187.56 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 186.56 76.4% retracement of the Apr 17 - May 6 bear leg  
• RES 1: 185.86/186.32 High Jun 30 / High Jun 16 and 17
• PRICE: 184.87 @ 07:55 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 183.78/183.17 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 24
• SUP 2: 182.05 Low May 06 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 181.87 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 180.81 Low Feb 12 and a key M/T support  

EURJPY resistance remains intact for now. This week’s gains cancels a recent bearish threat and refocuses attention on the key short-term resistance at 185.86, the Jun 30 high, and 186.32, the Jun 16 and 17 high. Clearance of both price points would be a bullish development. On the downside, support to watch lies at 183.17, the Jun 24 low. Clearance of this level would pave the way for an extension towards 182.05, the May 6 low.    

  AUDUSD TECHS: Still Looking For Weakness 

• RES 4: 0.7223 High May 15
• RES 3: 0.7149/7201 High Jun 4 / High May 29
• RES 2: 0.7088 High Jun 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6979/0.7022 Low Jun 11 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6948 @ 08:02 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 0.6865 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle
• SUP 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 2025 

A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and - for now - short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently pierced a key support marked by the base of a bull channel drawn from the Apr ‘25 low - currently at 0.6936. A clear channel breakout would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 0.6833, the Mar 30 low and a key support. Key short-term resistance is 0.7088, the Jun 15 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6979, the Jun low.      

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag

• RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing   
• RES 1: 1.4248 High Jun 24, 25 and 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4160 @ 08:10 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 1.4135 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3999 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3951 Low Jun 15
• SUP 4: 1.3899 Low Jun 10

USDCAD remains bullish. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that a recent fresh cycle high reinforced the bull theme and the move higher has paved the way for a climb towards 1.4292, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb ’25 - Jan ’26 downleg. The trend remains overbought. A pullback would allow this condition to unwind. The first important support is 1.4131, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U6) Bear Cycle Intact  

• RES 4: 127.69 High Jun 30 and a bull trigger  
• RES 3: 127.06 High Jul 2   
• RES 2: 126.37 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 125.77/126.17 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA         
• PRICE: 125.52 @ 05:58 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 125.04 Low Jul 8   
• SUP 2: 124.88 Low Jun 10 / 11 and a key S/T support 
• SUP 3: 124.70 76.4% retracement of the May 18 - Jun 30 bull leg
• SUP 4: 123.77 Low May 18 and the M/T bear trigger 

A short-term bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact. This week’s sharp pullback has seen the contract trade through the 50-day EMA - currently at 126.20, reinforcing a bear theme. The break lower signals scope for 124.88, the Jun 10 and 11 low and a key short-term support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 126.47, the 20-day EMA. A break of this hurdle is required to signal a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase.                                        

BOBL TECHS: (U6) Impulsive Bear Leg Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 115.560 High Jun 30 and a bull trigger     
• RES 3: 115.390 High Jul 1     
• RES 2: 115.230 High Jul 6  
• RES 1: 114.710/114.950 High Jul 8 / 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 114.550 @ 06:05 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 114.240 Low Jul 8        
• SUP 2: 114.180 Low Jun 10 and a key short-term support    
• SUP 3: 114.170 76.4% retracement of the May 19 - Jun 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 113.740 Low May 19 and a key M/T support

A short-term bear cycle in Bobl futures remains in play for now and this week’s sharp sell-off reinforces the bear theme. The break lower suggests scope for a deeper retracement and sights are on 114.180, the Jun 10 low and the next important support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 114.950, the 20-day EMA. A break through this average would signal a possible reversal.  

SCHATZ TECHS: (U6) Key Support Exposed  

• RES 4: 106.050 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 29 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 106.040 High Jul 2 
• RES 2: 105.945 High Jul 7
• RES 1: 105.810/106.040 High Jul 8 / 2
• PRICE: 105.750 @ 06:23 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 105.605 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 2: 105.540 Low May 8, 10 and 11 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 105.450 Low Mar 23 (cont)  
• SUP 4: 105.400 Round number support 

The current short-term bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact. This week’s sharp move lower highlights an impulsive bear leg and has resulted in a breach of all key short-term retracement points. The move down signals scope for an extension towards 105.540, the May 8, 10 and 11 low and the next key medium-term support. A break of this level would strengthen a bear threat. Initial resistance is at 105.810, Wednesday’s intraday high.     

GILT TECHS: (U6) Bearish Outlook 

• RES 4: 90.15 High Jun 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 89.93 High Jun 30  
• RES 2: 89.12 High Jul 6 
• RES 1: 87.93/88.59 High Jul 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 87.93 @ 07:01 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 86.95 61.8% retracement of the May 15 - Jun 25 bull leg     
• SUP 2: 86.70 Low May 21 
• SUP 3: 86.20 76.4% retracement of the May 15 - Jun 25 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 86.00 Low May 20

Gilt futures have traded sharply lower this week, highlighting an extension of the current bear cycle. Wednesday’s move lower resulted in a break of a key support at 87.28, the Jun 8 low. This suggests scope for a deeper retracement and sights are on 86.95 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 89.12, the Jul 6 high. A break of this hurdle would signal a possible reversal. First resistance is at 87.93, the Jul 8 high.       

BTP TECHS: (U6) Key S/T Support Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: 121.01 1.382 proj of the May 18 - 29 - Jun 10 price swing
• RES 3: 120.55 1.236 proj of the May 18 - 29 - Jun 10 price swing
• RES 2: 119.78 High Jun 30 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 118.43 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.90 @ 07:17 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 116.66 Low Jun 10 and a key support       
• SUP 2: 116.09 Low May 20
• SUP 3: 115.68 Low May 18 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 115.19 Low Apr 7

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play, however, the bearish extension this week highlights a continuation of a corrective cycle. The move down has exposed the next important support at 116.66, the Jun 10 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bear threat. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 118.43, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal. The bull trigger is 119.78, the Jun 30 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U6) Recent Gains Appear Corrective

• RES 4: $103.26 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $100.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $96.22 - High Jun 3 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $82.54 - 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $76.23 @ 07:11 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: $70.00 - Round number support  
• SUP 2: $69.32 - 76.4% retrace of the Dec 16 ‘25 - May 18 bull leg   
• SUP 3: $63.00 - Low Feb 3
• SUP 4: $58.83 - Low Dec 16 ‘25

The short-term trend structure in Brent futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the $70.00 handle next. Clearance of this level would further reinforce the bearish condition. Initial firm resistance is $82.54, the 50-day EMA.      

WTI TECHS: (Q6) Resistance Remains Intact        

• RES 4: $100.10 - High May 18 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: $93.42 - High Jun 3 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $79.51 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $76.08 - High Jul 8   
• PRICE: $71.85 @ 07:17 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: $67.04 - Low Jul 2   
• SUP 2: $65.95 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 16 - May 18 bull leg
• SUP 3: $61.22 - 2.000 proj of the May 18 - 28 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: $57.42 - 2.236 proj of the May 18 - 28 - Jun 3 price swing  

A bearish trend structure in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s gains are considered corrective. The contract has recently traded through a key support at $75.45, the Apr 17 low. This strengthened the bear theme and opens $65.95, 76.4% of the Dec 16 - May 18 bull leg. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at $79.51, the 50-day EMA.          

GOLD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend  

• RES 4: $4773.5 - High May 12 
• RES 3: $4595.2 - High May 29
• RES 2: $4318.0 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $4202.9 - High Jul 6
• PRICE: $4118.0 @ 07:24 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: $3943.3 - Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: $3900.0 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 2025
• SUP 4: $3771.1 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2  - Mar 3 price swing

The trend set-up in Gold is unchanged, it remains bearish and the latest shallow recovery is considered corrective. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position -  this highlights a dominant downtrend. Furthermore the recent breach of $4024.0, the Jun 11 low, confirmed a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. A continuation of the bear leg would open the $3900.00 handle next. Firm resistance is at the 50-day EMA at $4318.0.                                 

SILVER TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat 

• RES 4: $100.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $89.374 - High May 13
• RES 2: $78.898 - High May 19 
• RES 1: $62.486/67.667 20- and 50-day EMA         
• PRICE: $60.172 @ 08:19 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: $55.613 - Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $52.577 - 1.000 proj of the Mar 2 - 23 - May 13 price swing  
• SUP 3: $50.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $48.644 - Low Nov 21 ‘25 

The trend set-up in Silver remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Key support at $61.007, the Mar 23 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared. The break highlights an important bearish development and confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Sights are on $52.577, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is seen at $67.982, the 50-day EMA. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at $63.220.