MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Reinforces Bearish Theme

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Reinforces Bearish Condition

• The primary long-term uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have erased the sharp sell-off on Monday. The reversal higher refocuses attention once again on a bullish theme. A continuation higher would expose 6022.00, the Apr 17 high.    
• Bullish trend conditions in GBPUSD remain intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. A resumption of the uptrend would signal scope for an extension towards 1.3701, a Fibonacci retracement. A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and today’s volatile price activity reinforces current conditions. Attention is on trendline support at 155.01, drawn off the 2025 low. AUDUSD has traded to a fresh cycle high today, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
• The primary bull cycle in WTI remains intact and the latest pullback is for now, considered corrective. The contract has recently cleared resistance at $104.34, the Mar 9 high and bull trigger. Gold maintains a bearish tone for now and continues to trade below its  recent highs. A reversal higher and a resumption of gains would resume the correction that started on Mar 23 and open $5000.0 and $5107.6.  
• The trend set-up in Bund futures is bearish and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. A bearish theme is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bear mode position. A bearish theme in Gilt futures is intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Attention is on the bear trigger at 85.91, the Mar 23 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of this support would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1996 High Jan 29
• RES 3: 1.1929 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.1857 High Feb 18 
• RES 1: 1.1785/1849 High May 01 / 17 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.1732 @ 06:18 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 1.1655 Low Apr 30 
• SUP 2: 1.1590 Low Apr 8
• SUP 3: 1.1505 Low Apr 6 and a key S/T support
• SUP 4: 1.1443/11 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 13 & 16 and the bear trigger

A key support in EURUSD at the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.1683 - remains intact. It has been pierced, however, a clear break is required to suggest scope for a stronger S/T reversal and open 1.1505, the Apr 6 low. While the EMA support holds, the structure remains bullish. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 1.1849, the Apr 17 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started mid-March. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Set-Up

• RES 4: 1.3868 High Jan 27 and a key bull trigger    
• RES 3: 1.3814 High Jan 30
• RES 2: 1.3701 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 31 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3658 High May 01
• PRICE: 1.3586 @ 06:32 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 1.3460 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.3381 Low Apr 13 
• SUP 3: 1.3287/3159 Low Apr 8 / Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25

Bullish trend conditions in GBPUSD remain intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. A resumption of the uptrend would signal scope for an extension towards 1.3701, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch lies at 1.3460, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would be a bearish development and reinforce a recent potential bear threat highlighted by a death cross in MA studies (50-dma < 200-dma).   

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: 0.8789 High Feb 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8742 High Mar 31 and Apr 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8680 50-Day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8637 @ 06:45 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 0.8620 Low May 01
• SUP 2: 0.8610 Low Mar 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 4: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25 

EURGBP continues to trade closer to its recent lows and a bear threat remains in play. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bear-mode setup, reinforcing current bearish conditions. Sights are on 0.8610, the Mar 16 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would resume a medium-term downtrend. Key resistance to watch is 0.8742, the Mar 31 and Apr 1 high. First resistance is 0.8680, the 50-day EMA.  

USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Trendline Support  

• RES 4: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 3: 160.72 High Apr 30 and the bull trigger  
• RES 2: 158.63 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 158.32 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 156.35 @ 06:59 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 155.04 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 155.01 Uptrendline drawn off Apr’25 low
• SUP 3: 154.00 Low Feb 23
• SUP 4: 153.07 Low Feb 18  

A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and today’s volatile price activity reinforces current conditions. Attention is on trendline support at 155.01, drawn off the 2025 low. This represents the next key support and a clear break of it would strengthen a bear theme. This would open 154.00, the Feb 23 low. Initial firm resistance is 158.32, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would be a bullish development and expose 160.72, the Apr 30 high.  

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 187.95 High Apr 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 187.56 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 185.59 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 184.96 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 183.50@ 07:15 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 182.05 Low May 06
• SUP 2: 181.87 Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 3: 181.42 Low Feb 18 
• SUP 4: 180.81 Low Feb 12 and a key M/T support  

Bearish short-term conditions in EURJPY remain intact and price continues to trade below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 181.87 next, the Mar 16 low. The next major support lies at 180.81, the Feb 12 low. Initial resistance to watch is 184.96, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at 185.59. A clear break of both averages would be a bullish development.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 0.7340 1.618 proj of the Apr 29 - May 1 - 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 0.7327 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low
• RES 2: 0.7300 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.7262 1.000 proj of the Apr 29 - May 1 - 5 price swing  
• PRICE: 0.7240 @ 08:13 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 0.7135 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.7066 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6986 Low Apr 13 
• SUP 4: 0.6899 Low Apr 7

AUDUSD has traded to a fresh cycle high today, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 0.7262 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, scope is seen for a move towards 0.7327, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low. Initial support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 0.7135.    

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.4015 High Dec 2 ‘25
• RES 3: 1.3985 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 ‘25 - Jan 30 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3878/3967 High Apr 13 / High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3720 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3594 @ 08:16 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 1.3550 Low May 1
• SUP 2: 1.3513 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.3482 Low Jan 30 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3420 Low Sep 25 

A short-term bear cycle in USDCAD remains in play with the pair trading closer to its recent lows. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.3526 next, the Mar 9 low and the next key support. Clearance of this level would open 1.3482, the Jan 30 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3720, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible short-term reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M6) Gains Considered Corrective 

• RES 4: 127.20 High Mar 11 
• RES 3: 126.85 High Mar 18
• RES 2: 126.26/126.64 High Apr 17 / High Apr 8 and key resistance
• RES 1: 125.39 20-day EMA          
• PRICE: 125.27 @ 05:51 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 124.25 Low Mar 27 and the bear trigger      
• SUP 2: 124.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 123.86 1.618 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 123.59 1.764 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing

The trend set-up in Bund futures is bearish and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. A bearish theme is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bear mode position. Sights are on the key short-term support and bear trigger at 124.25, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open the 124.00 handle. Key resistance is unchanged at 126.64, the Apr 8 high.                                 

BOBL TECHS: (M6) Bearish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 116.925 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 27 bear leg  
• RES 3: 116.770 High Mar 11    
• RES 2: 116.500 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 115.534/116.240 20-day EMA / High Apr 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 115.400 @ 06:08 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 114.700 Low Mar 27 and bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 114.630 2.000 proj of the Mar 2 - 3 - 4 price swing  
• SUP 3: 114.295 2.236 proj of the Mar 2 - 3 - 4 price swing   
• SUP 4: 114.000 Round number support

The trend set-up in Bobl futures is bearish. This is highlighted by the MA set-up that remains in a bear-mode position. Short-term gains appear corrective. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 114.700, the Mar 27 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. The key resistance to watch is at 116.240, the Apr 8 high. A clear breach of it would signal a potential reversal. First resistance is 115.534, the 20-day EMA.       

SCHATZ TECHS: (M6) Bear Threat 

• RES 4: 106.575 High Mar 10  
• RES 3: 106.433 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 23 bear leg 
• RES 2: 106.245 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 23 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.842/106.240 20-day EMA / High Apr 20 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 105.725 @ 06:22 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 105.450 Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 105.433 2.500 proj of the Mar 2 - 3 - 4 price swing 
• SUP 3: 105.400 Round number support
• SUP 4: 105.371 2.618 projection of the Mar 2 - 3 - 4 price swing

A primary bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. Key resistance has been defined at 106.240, the Apr 20 high. A clear break of this hurdle is required to highlight a potential reversal. Initial resistance is at 105.842, the 20-day EMA. The  bear trigger to watch lies at 105.450, the Mar 23 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. 

GILT TECHS: (M6) Has Pierced Support

• RES 4: 90.74 61.8% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 23 bear leg
• RES 3: 90.21 High Apr 8 and the bull trigger  
• RES 2: 88.61/89.42 50-day EMA / High Apr 17  
• RES 1: 87.51 20-day EMA     
• PRICE: 86.66 @ 08:10 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 85.91/90 Low Mar 23 and a key support / Low Apr 30    
• SUP 2: 85.59 2.618 proj of the Feb 27 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 85.21 2.618 proj of the Feb 27 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 85.00 Round number support 

A bearish theme in Gilt futures is intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Attention is on the bear trigger at 85.91, the Mar 23 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of this support would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and open 85.59, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 90.21, the Apr 8 high. First resistance is 87.51 the 20-day EMA.  

BTP TECHS: (M6) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 122.04 High Feb 27 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 120.98 High Mar 3
• RES 2: 120.22 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27  -Mar 27 bear cycle 
• RES 1: 117.81/118.96 50-day EMA / High Apr 8 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 117.41 @ 07:03 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 115.84 Low Apr 30      
• SUP 2: 115.58 Low Apr 7
• SUP 3: 114.32 Low Mar 27 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 114.00 Round number support

A bearish theme in BTP futures remains intact and gains appear corrective. Key resistance has been defined at 118.96, the Apr 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the recovery that started Mar 27, and open 120.22, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, an extension of the latest pullback would instead highlight the end of the Mar 27 - Apr 8 corrective phase and expose key support at 114.32, the Mar 27 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M6) Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 6143.00 High Feb 26 and key M/T bull trigger 
• RES 3: 6043.00 Low Feb 27 and a gap high on the daily chart 
• RES 2: 6022.00 High Apr 17 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 5896.00 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 5887.00 @ 06:36 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 5684.00/5664.00 Low May 4 / 50.0% of Mar 23-Apr 17 upleg    
• SUP 2: 5579.51 61.8% retracement of the Mar 23 - Apr 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 5525.00 Low Apr 2  
• SUP 4: 5306.00 Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger 

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have erased the sharp sell-off on Monday. The reversal higher refocuses attention once again on a bullish theme. A continuation higher would expose 6022.00, the Apr 17 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would open 6143.00, the Feb 26 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Key short-term support has been defined at 5684.00, the May 4 low.    

E-MINI S&P: (M6) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 7364.24 1.618 proj of the Apr 123 - 28 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 7347.25 1.500 proj of the Apr 123 - 28 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 7330.26 1.382 proj of the Apr 123 - 28 - 29 price swing 
• RES 1: 7320.00 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 7308.75 @ 07:21 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 7199.50 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 7098.31 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 6967.39 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6767.00 Low Apr 13

The primary long-term uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on 7330.26 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, a strong bullish signal that highlights a dominant uptrend. Initial key support lies at 7098.31, the 20-day EMA. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N6) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $128.53 - 1.618 proj of the Mar 10 - 19 - Apr 17 price swing
• RES 3: $125.24 - 1.382 proj of the Mar 10 - 19 - Apr 17 price swing 
• RES 2: $120.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $117.89 - 1.236 proj of the Mar 10 - 19 - Apr 17 price swing 
• PRICE: $107.74 @ 07:12 BST May 6
• SUP 1: $101.401 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $92.69/83.44 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 17
• SUP 3: $76.82 - Low Mar 10 
• SUP 4: $68.36 - Low Feb 26

The medium-term trend set-up in Brent futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and a fresh cycle high on Monday, reinforces current trend conditions. The contract has recently cleared resistance at $104.69, the Mar 19 high and bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on 117.89, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of the $120.00 handle. Initial firm support lies at $101.40, the 20-day EMA.  

WTI TECHS: (M6) Corrective Pullback      

• RES 4: $123.64 - 1.618 proj of the Mar 10 - Apr 7 - 17 price swing 
• RES 3: $120.00 - Psychological round number   
• RES 2: $117.13 - 1.382 proj of the Mar 10 - Apr 7 - 17 price swing
• RES 1: $113.10 - 1.236 proj of the Mar 10 - Apr 7 - 17 price swing
• PRICE: $104.64 @ 07:16 BST May 5
• SUP 1: $96.93/89.07 - 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: $78.97 - Low Apr 17
• SUP 3: $73.56 - Low Mar 10 
• SUP 4: $68.38 - Low Mar 2  

The primary bull cycle in WTI remains intact and the latest pullback is for now, considered corrective. The contract has recently cleared resistance at $104.34, the Mar 9 high and bull trigger, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The $110.00 handle has also been pierced and sights are on $113.10 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards $120.00. Initial firm support lies at $96.93, the 20-day EMA.    

GOLD TECHS: Still Looking For Weakness    

• RES 4: $5107.6 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 23 bear leg 
• RES 3: $5000.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 2: $4914.9 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 23 bear leg 
• RES 1: $4729.9/4889.4 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 16 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $4665.1 @ 07:54 BST May 6
• SUP 1: $4501.1 - Low May 4
• SUP 2: $4420.1 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: $4306.4 - Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: $4099.2 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger

Gold maintains a bearish tone for now and continues to trade below its  recent highs. A reversal higher and a resumption of gains would resume the correction that started on Mar 23 and open $5000.0 and $5107.6, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a continuation lower would instead highlight a resumption of the M/T bear condition and signal scope for a move towards $4306.4, the Mar 24 low. The key support lies at $4099.2, the Mar 23 low.                              

SILVER TECHS: MA Studies Are In A Bear-Mode Position 

• RES 4: $107.341 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 29 - Mar 23 sell-off
• RES 3: $97.804 - High Mar 2
• RES 2: $90.015 - High Mar 10 
• RES 1: $84.174 - 38.2% retracement of the Jan 29 - Mar 23 bear leg        
• PRICE: $75.836 @ 08:22 BST May 6
• SUP 1: $61.007 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $60.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 3: $56.496 - Low Dec 4 ‘25
• SUP 4: $53.345 - Low Nov 28 ‘25 

Silver is unchanged and continues to trade below its mid-April high of $83.054. MA studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a dominant downtrend. It also suggests that the recovery since Mar 23, is likely a correction. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose the bear trigger at $61.007, the Mar 23 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. First resistance is $84.174, a Fibonacci retracement point.