MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Tariffs Affirm CAD Bear Phase

Price Signal Summary – Tariff Tuesday Affirms USD/CAD Bull Phase

• A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract on Monday, reinforces a short-term bearish threat. The contract traded to a fresh low and the move down exposes the next key support at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. The rally Monday resulted in a fresh all-time cycle high, with price piercing resistance at 5555.00                 
• The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish - for now - and Monday’s strong gains reinforce this theme. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. USDJPY continues to trade just ahead of its recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low, has been pierced. AUDUSD continues to trade at its recent lows. Last week’s strong sell-off undermines a recent bullish theme. The pair is once again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the move down has exposed support at 0.6171. The USDCAD correction / bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains in play for now and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Yesterday’s gains reinforce current conditions and sights are on a climb towards 1.4548.
• The latest pullback in Gold appears to be a correction. The move through the 20-day EMA does signal scope for an extension towards the next important support around the 50-day EMA, at $2808.08. The current bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s fresh short-term cycle low reinforces current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. 
• Bund futures on Monday pulled back from their recent highs and the contract remains below last week’s high. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and - for now - short-term weakness appears corrective. The contract has recently traded higher and this highlighted scope for a test of resistance at 93.39, the Feb 13 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed   

• RES 4: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg   
• RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 6 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.0594 High Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
• PRICE: 1.0483 @ 05:57 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key near-term support 
• SUP 2: 1.0335 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run     
• SUP 3: 1.0272 Low Feb 4  
• SUP 4: 1.0233 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run

EURUSD traded higher Monday, starting the week on a firm note. The recovery undermines a recent bear theme and exposes 1.0529, the Feb 26 high, and more importantly, resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. A clear break of 1.0533 would highlight a stronger bullish short-term theme. This would open 1.0630, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A key near-term support has been defined at 1.0360, the Feb 28 low. A break of it would be bearish. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North 

• RES 4: 1.2887 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.2723 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 1.2699 @ 06:24 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 1.2545 50-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
• SUP 3: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.2249 Low Feb 3    

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish - for now - and Monday’s strong gains reinforce this theme. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2545, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg.                

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present              

• RES 4: 0.8378 High Feb 6 and a reversal trigger     
• RES 3: 0.8361 50.0% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 2: 0.8325 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 0.8306 High Feb 26 and a key short-term resistance    
• PRICE: 0.8258 @ 06:49 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 0.8241 Low Mar 3   
• SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range   
• SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg 

EURGBP is unchanged. A bearish condition remains intact following last week’s move lower. The cross has pierced a key support at 0.8248, the Feb 3 low. A clear breach of this level would strengthen the bearish condition and pave the way for 0.8223 , the Dec 19 low and the next key support. To the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.8306, the Feb 26 high. Clearance of this hurdle would suggest a possible base and a reversal.       

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish  

• RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 152.83 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 151.29 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 149.65 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 149.38 @ 07:04 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 148.57 Low Feb 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
• SUP 3: 147.02 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg  

USDJPY continues to trade just ahead of its recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the bearish condition and open 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 151.29, the 20-day EMA. A break of it would suggest scope for a stronger correction.   

EURJPY TECHS: Monday’s High Defined As A Key Short-Term Resistance     

• RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg     
• RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13       
• RES 2: 159.65 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance 
• RES 1: 158.47 High Mar 3
• PRICE: 156.78 @ 07:53 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 155.93/154.80 Low Mar 3 / Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 152.72 1.00 proj of the Jan 24 - Feb 10 - 13 price swing 

Monday’s strong rally in EURJPY undermines a recent bearish threat and instead highlights a possible reversal. However, the cross has pulled back sharply from yesterday's intraday high of 158.47. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme. This would open 159.53, the 50-day EMA. For now, the dominant trend structure remains bearish, a continuation lower would expose the major support at 154.42, the Dec 14 2023 low.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed  

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6305 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.6202 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 0.6187 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support

AUDUSD  continues to trade at its recent lows. Last week’s strong sell-off undermines a recent bullish theme. The pair is once again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the move down has exposed support at 0.6171, the Feb 4 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and suggest scope for a test of the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6305, the 50-day EMA.   

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends   

• RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.4548 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.4496 @ 08:07 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 1.4370/4296 Low Mar 3 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle

The USDCAD correction / bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains in play for now and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Yesterday’s gains reinforce current conditions and sights are on a climb towards 1.4548, a Fibonacci retracement point. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4296, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight an early reversal signal.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Resistance Remains Intact           

• RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg           
• RES 3: 134.06 High Dec 23 ‘24  
• RES 2: 133.46/71 High Feb 28 / 5 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 132.94 High Mar 3                
• PRICE: 1323.44 @ 05:39 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 131.79 Low Mar 3  
• SUP 2: 131.26 Low Feb 19 and a bear trigger            
• SUP 3: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger   

Bund futures on Monday pulled back from their recent highs and the contract remains below last week’s high. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose the next key support at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level would be viewed as an important short-term technical break. Two important resistance points remain intact for now; 133.46, the Feb 28 high, and 133.71, the Feb 5 high.                               

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Resistance    

• RES 4: 118.258 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg         
• RES 3: 118.100 High Jan 2      
• RES 2: 118.010 High Feb 28   
• RES 1: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5 and a reversal trigger                             
• PRICE: 117.730 @ 05:50 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 117.340 Low Mar 3   
• SUP 2: 117.240/116.870 Low Feb 24 / 19 and a S/T bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.700 Low Jan 30 
• SUP 4: 116.550 Low Jan 24      

Bobl futures are trading in a volatile manner so far this week and price  remains closer to last week’s highs. Key resistance to watch is 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high and an important hurdle for bulls. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, Monday’s low of 117.340 represents an important near-term support - a break of this level would instead highlight a bearish threat and open 116.870, the Feb 19 low.               

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bullish Structure Intact For Now                 

• RES 4: 107.170 High Dec 20   
• RES 3: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 ‘24 - Jan 15 bear leg    
• RES 2: 107.045 High Feb 3 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 106.975 High Feb 10 / 28        
• PRICE: 106.885 @ 06:19 GMT Mar 4    
• SUP 1: 106.630 Low Feb 20 
• SUP 2: 106.755/630 Low Feb 24/20 and a key near term support
• SUP 3: 106.600 Low Jan 31 
• SUP 4: 106.515 Low Jan 30  

Schatz futures have traded in a volatile manner so far this week. A bull cycle that started on Feb 19 remains in play and the latest recovery opens 106.975, the Feb 10 high, ahead of the next key resistance at 107.045, the Feb 3 high. Clearance of this latter hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition. A reversal lower would instead expose the key short-term support at 106.630, the Feb 20 low. First support to watch lies at 106.765, Monday’s low.                                               

GILT TECHS: (M5) Support Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 94.24 2.00 proj of the Feb 20 - 24 minor price swing
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 93.83 High Feb 6 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 93.51 High Feb 26                   
• PRICE: 92.83 @ Close Mar 3
• SUP 1: 92.57 Low Mar 3                                    
• SUP 2: 92.22 Low Feb 24   
• SUP 3: 91.79 Low Feb 20 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 91.61 Low Jan 21  

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and - for now - short-term weakness appears corrective. The contract has recently traded higher and this highlighted scope for a test of resistance at 93.39, the Feb 13 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 93.83, the high on Feb 6 and a bull trigger. On  the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 91.79, Feb 20 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a bear threat.                      

BTP TECHS: (H5) Pullback Appears Corrective                           

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12      
• RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• RES 2: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7 
• RES 1: 120.74 High Feb 28      
• PRICE: 119.89 @ Close Mar 3 
• SUP 1: 119.60/118.95 Low Feb 24 / 19 and a key support
• SUP 2: 118.65 Low Jan 24
• SUP 3: 117.16 Low Jan 13 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)   

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the pullback between Feb 7 - 19, appears to have been a correction. Monday’s move lower - for now - also appears corrective. Attention is on 120.98 (recently pierced) and 121.88 further out, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 118.95, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this price point would instead highlight a reversal and the end of the current bull cycle.          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Fresh Cycle High Reinforces A Bullish Theme  

• RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
• RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 1: 5575.00 High Mar 3            
• PRICE: 5506.00 @ 06:30 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 5394.00 Low Feb 28  and a key short-term level             
• SUP 2: 5328.00 Low Feb 106 
• SUP 3: 5266.18 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 5112.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support   

The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. The rally Monday resulted in a fresh all-time cycle high, with price piercing resistance at 5555.00, the Feb 18 high. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens the 5600.00 handle next. Key short-term support has been defined at 5394.00, the Feb 28 low.    

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Approaching Key Support  

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 6166.50 High Jan 19
• RES 1: 5911.12/6029.12 50.0% of Monday’s range / 50-day EMA                  
• PRICE: 5971.75 @ 14:44 GMT Mar 3  
• SUP 1: 5821.75 Low Mar 3               
• SUP 2: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 ’24  
• SUP 4: 5730.00 Low Sep 18 ‘24   

A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract on Monday, reinforces a short-term bearish threat. The contract traded to a fresh low and the move down exposes the next key support at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and confirm a double top pattern on the daily scale. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6029.12, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average is required to signal a bull reversal.         

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: $83.40 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance   
• RES 3: $80.46 - High Jul 18 ‘24
• RES 2: $76.78/79.98 - High Feb 11 / High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $74.49 - 50-day EMA            
• PRICE: $70.89 @ 07:10 GMT Mar 4   
• SUP 1: $70.96 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: $69.59 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.41 - Low Oct 1 ‘24
• SUP 4: $67.87 - Low Sep 9 ‘24 and a key medium-term support  

Brent futures remain in a clear downtrend and this week’s bearish start reinforces current conditions. A clear break of support at $73.54, the Feb 4 low and a bear trigger, has been confirmed. This marks a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the current bear price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on a move towards $70.09, the Dec 6 low. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at $76.78, the Feb 11 high. 

WTI TECHS: (J5) Southbound                  

• RES 4: $80.07 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing    
• RES 3: $79.07 - 3.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing 
• RES 2: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $71.16/73.33 - 50-day EMA / High Feb 11 and key resistance  
• PRICE: $67.87 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1:$67.75 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
• SUP 2: $66.41 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
• SUP 3: $65.41 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.61 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support   

The current bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s fresh short-term cycle low reinforces current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and paves the way for an extension towards $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low, and $66.41, the Dec 6 ‘24 low. Key short-term resistance is at $73.33, the Feb 11 high.          

GOLD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day Remains Intact For Now                 

• RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number   
• RES 3: $2973.9 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2920.8/2956.2 - High Feb 27 / 24 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: $2894.2 @ 07:24 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28  
• SUP 2: $2808.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
• SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27 

The latest pullback in Gold appears to be a correction. The move through the 20-day EMA does signal scope for an extension towards the next important support around the 50-day EMA, at $2808.08. However, Monday’s gains are a positive development and potentially an early reversal signal. A stronger rally would refocus attention on the next objective at $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle.                    

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle   

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 1: $32.484/33.397 - High Feb 25 / 14 and the bull trigger                                 
• PRICE: $32.717 @ 08:11 GMT Mar 4    
• SUP 1: $30.815 - Low Feb 28          
• SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27 
• SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 

Silver weakness last week resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The move down - for now - appears corrective, however, a clear break of the 50-day average, at $31.410, would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $30.691, the Feb 3 low. On the upside, the short-term bull trigger has been defined at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.