
Price Signal Summary - Flag Formation in EStoxx50
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Cycle
A bear threat in EURUSD remains present. Last week’s move down confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. A channel base at 1.1537, has been breached. The channel is drawn from 1.1849, the Apr 17 high. This paves the way for an extension towards the next key support at 1.1411, the Mar 13 and 16 low. Resistance to watch is 1.1654, the 50-day EMA, and 1.1686, the May 29 high.
GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
Key short-term support in GBPUSD at 1.3303, the May 18 low, remains exposed. Clearance of this price point would strengthen a bearish threat and pave the way for an extension towards 1.3277, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 1 bull leg. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and open 1.3159, the Mar 31 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3509, the May 26 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
EURGBP is unchanged. Trend signals are bearish and S/T gains are considered corrective. Attention is on key support at 0.8610, the Mar 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important medium-term bearish breakout. On the upside, key resistance to watch is 0.8742, the Mar 31 and Apr 1 high. Initial firm resistance is 0.8664, the 50-day EMA, recently pierced. A clear break of the average would be a short-term bullish development.
USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance
A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play for now. The pair is approaching key resistance at 160.72, the Apr 30 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the uptrend. Note that a breach would also cancel a bear threat highlighted by the large bear candle on Apr 30. While price trades between the Apr 30 open and close (the candle body), it is possible that the recovery since May 6 is corrective. Initial firm support is 158.78, the 50-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
The short-term trend needle in EURJPY continues to point north and recent gains appear corrective for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 186.56, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 182.05, the May 6 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important bearish development. Initial firm support to watch is 184.01, Monday’s low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Lows
AUDUSD is trading at its recent lows. A sharp sell-off on Friday highlights a clear break of the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.7122. The break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 0.7003, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that the bear cycle that started Jun 5 could still be a correction. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.7201, the May 29 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Sights Are On Key Resistance
The current uptrend in USDCAD remains intact and recent strong gains have reinforced this condition. The move higher has confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started on May 1. This paves the way for an extension towards 1.3967, the Mar 31 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3772, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U6) Short-Term Corrective Pullback
The short-term trend in Bund futures remains bullish and the latest pullback appears - for now - corrective. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 126.63, the May 29 high. A resumption of gains and a breach of this hurdle would open the 127.00 handle ahead of 127.22, the Mar 10 high. Note that the medium-term trend remains down - moving average studies remain in a bear mode position. Initial support is 124.86, a retracement level.
BOBL TECHS: (U6) Remains In Retracement Mode
Bobl futures continue to trade below their recent highs. For now, a S/T bull cycle is intact. A resumption of gains would highlight a continuation of the bullish corrective cycle that started on May 19. The key short-term resistance and bull trigger has been defined at 115.180, the May 29 high. Clearance of this hurdle would open 115.500 next. Initial support lies at 114.290 (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger is 113.740, May 19 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U6) Trading Below Its Recent Highs
The primary trend structure in Schatz futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and - for now - recent gains appear to have been corrective. The pullback from its latest highs has defined a key short-term resistance at 105.950, the May 29 high. A break of this hurdle is required to signal a continuation of the corrective cycle and this would open 106.000 initially. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 105.440, the May 19 low.
GILT TECHS: (U6) Still Looking For Gains
A short-term bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and recent gains have reinforced this bull theme. Note too that the latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. The contract has traded through resistance at 88.08, the May 8 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 89.02, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 86.70, the May 21 low.
BTP TECHS: (U6) Monitoring Support
Medium-term trend conditions in BTP futures remain bearish and recent gains appear corrective - for now. However, a short-term bull cycle is in play, signalling scope for a continuation higher. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards the 119.00 handle next. Initial key support to watch lies at 115.68, the May 18 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important short-term bearish development.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M6) Bull Flag
Trend signals in EUROSTOXX 50 futures are pointing north, highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. The recent pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6200.00 next. Firm support lies at 5922.78, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would undermine the bull theme.
E-MINI S&P: (M6) Pullback Considered Corrective
The trend in S&P E-Minis is bullish and short-term pullback’s appear corrective. Friday’s move down resulted in the break of an important short-term support at 7467.60, the 20-day EMA. The clear breach of this average suggests scope for a deeper short-term retracement towards 7285.93, the 50-day EMA. Note that the 50-day EMA is considered a key support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 7632.25, the Jun 1 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Q6) Bullish Trend Condition Intact
The primary trend set-up in Brent futures remains bullish and short-term weakness - for now - appears corrective. A support area to watch lies at $94.07, the 50-day EMA. The contract has traded through the average, a clear break of it is required to strengthen a bear threat and this would expose $81.45, the Apr 17 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is $108.34, the May 5 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.
WTI TECHS: (N6) Testing Support
The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. A key area of support to watch is $90.59, the 50-day EMA. The contract has traded through it, a clear breach is required to highlight a top and the start of a stronger correction. This would open $77.22, the Apr 17 low. For bulls, key resistance has been defined at $105.21, the May 18 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.
GOLD TECHS: Bearish Theme
A bear theme in Gold remains intact - moving average studies are in a bearish mode position, and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. A sharp sell-off on Friday reinforces this condition and signals scope for an extension towards the next key support at $4099.2, the Mar 23 low. A clear break of this level would highlight an important medium-term bearish development. Initial resistance is seen at $4501.0, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Break Lower Exposes Key Support
A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and last Friday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down resulted in the breach of support $70.869, the Apr 29 low. Clearance of this support exposes $61.007, the Mar 23 low and a bear trigger. A breach of this price point would highlight an important bearish development. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $89.374, the May 13 high. Initial firm resistance is at $76.190, the 50-day EMA.