MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Cycle In Treasuries Intact

Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In Treasuries Points South      

• In the equity space, a bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support, has been breached. This strengthens a bearish theme and sights are on 5784.00, the Nov 4 low and an important short-term support. Initial pivot resistance is seen at 5987.43, the 50-day EMA. A bull cycle in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Initial support is at 4939.33, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this EMA would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance at 5040.00, Dec 9 high, has recently been pierced. Clearance of it would resume the bull cycle that started on Nov 21 and open 5068.13, the 0.764 projection of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing.              
• In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The break of this support confirms a resumption of the downtrend and sights are on 1.0138 next, a 1.764 projection of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing. Resistance to watch is 1.0437, the Jan 6 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 1.0356. The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a 0.764 projection of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2433, the 20-day EMA. The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 156.90, the 20-day EMA.  
• On the commodity front, recent gains in Gold appear corrective. However, the yellow metal continues to hold on to the bulk of last week’s gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. A stronger recovery would open $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2644.3, the 50-day EMA. In the oil space, the trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and the contract is trading just ahead of its recent highs. The stronger reversal to the upside has resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle strengthens a bull theme and opens $79.59, the Jul 5 ‘24 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose the 20-day EMA, at $73.15. This average is seen as a key short-term support.         
• In the FI space, the trend in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and Tuesday’s fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The contract has cleared key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish theme. Sights are on the 130.00 handle next. Key short-term resistance is at 132.78, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective. The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, the direction remains down and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. Recent weakness also highlights an acceleration of the trend. Sights are on 88.87 next, a 2.764 projection of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing. Initial resistance is at 90.31, the Jan 9 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 91.61. The EMA is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce   

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
• RES 1: 1.0356 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0297 @ 06:04 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13  
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The break of this support confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0437, the Jan 6 high.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish   

• RES 4: 1.2607 High Dec 30
• RES 3: 1.2597 50-day EMA     
• RES 2: 1.2433 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.2322 High Jan 10 
• PRICE: 1.2201@ 06:20 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 
• SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number      

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2433, the 20-day EMA.      

EURGBP TECHS: Trades Through Resistance              

• RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg 
• RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24  
• RES 2: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8463 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 0.8431 @ 06:28 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 0.8385 Low Jan 14   
• SUP 2: 0.8325/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
• SUP 3: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
• SUP 4: 0.8223 Low Dec 19

EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and the cross traded higher Tuesday. The latest recovery undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has been cleared. Note too that 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8325.  

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North           

• RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
• RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing  
• RES 1: 158.87 High Jan 10  
• PRICE: 157.34 @ 06:58 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 156.90/02 20-day EMA / Low Dec 31
• SUP 2: 154.71 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 154.44 Low Dec 19
• SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17  

The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces a bull theme. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 156.90, the 20-day EMA.     

EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support                   

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8 
• RES 3: 164.90 THigh Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 163.19 High Jan 10 
• PRICE: 161.89 @ 07:04 GMT Jan 15 
• SUP 1: 160.04 Low Jan 13    
• SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11

The recent move down in EURJPY appears corrective. The recovery from Monday’s low highlights a potential short-term reversal and the end of the corrective cycle. A continuation higher would open 164.90, the Dec 30 high. Clearance of 164.90 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 160.04, the Jan 13 low. A breach of this level would be a bearish development.           

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish   

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
• RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13               
• RES 2: 0.6351 50-day EMA   
• RES 1: 0.6236/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
• PRICE: 0.6198 @ 07:34 GMT Jan 15 
• SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13   
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pair has recently breached support at 0.6179, the Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 0.6100 handle next. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6236, 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6351.  

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence   

• RES 4: 1.4674 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19 
• PRICE: 1.4345 @ 07:54 GMT Jan 15 
• SUP 1: 1.4348/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6  
• SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17 
• SUP 3: 1.4203 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

The trend set-up in USDCAD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend still appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4348, the 20-day EMA, has recently been pierced. A clear break of the average would open 1.4203, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Fresh Cycle Low    

• RES 4: 137.75 Low Dec 10            
• RES 3: 135.15 High Dec 13 
• RES 2: 132.78 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.09/71/132.57 High Jan 14 / 9                
• PRICE: 130.43 @ 05:44 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 130.58/57 Low Nov 6 ‘24 and key support (cont) / Intraday low     
• SUP 2  130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)            
• SUP 3: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number      

The trend in Bund futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and Tuesday’s fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The contract has cleared key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish theme. Sights are on the 130.00 handle next. Key short-term resistance is at 132.78, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.                      

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play  

• RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6        
• RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13   
• RES 2: 117.469 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 116.700/117.090 High Jan 14 / 9                            
• PRICE: 116.360 @ 05:57 GMT Jan 15  
• SUP 1: 116.280 Low Jan 14               
• SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont) 
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing     

A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent low. Price has recently traded through key support at 117.180, the Nov 6 low. The clear break and subsequent follow through strengthens the downtrend and sights are on 116.210 next, the Jul 12 2024 low (cont). Key short-term resistance is 117.469, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.         

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South             

• RES 4: 107.065 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 106.965 High Jan 3  
• RES 2: 106.835 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 106.650/785 High Jan 10 / 6     
• PRICE: 106.470 @ 06:01 GMT Jan 15   
• SUP 1: 106.435 Low Jan 14             
• SUP 2: 106.375 Low Oct 31  (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 106.342 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.255 3.000 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing

The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness, including fresh cycle lows this week, reinforce this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the bear leg and sights are on 106.375 next, the Oct 31 ‘24 low (cont). Firm resistance is seen at 106.835, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.                                     

GILT TECHS: (H5) Trend Direction Remains Down        

• RES 4: 92.88 High Jan 2 
• RES 3: 91.61 20-day EMA 
• RES 2: 91.58 High Jan 8 
• RES 1: 90.31 High Jan 9              
• PRICE: 89.25 @ Close Jan 14
• SUP 1: 88.96 Low Jan 13                             
• SUP 2: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing  
• SUP 3: 88.53 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 88.19 3.236 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, the direction remains down and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. Recent weakness also highlights an acceleration of the trend. Sights are on 88.87 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 90.31, the Jan 9 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 91.61. The EMA is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.                    

 BTP TECHS: (H5) Trades Through Key Support                         

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12     
• RES 3: 121.43 High Dec 16  
• RES 2: 120.70 High Dec 20   
• RES 1: 118.30/119.49 High Jan 10 / 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 117.32 @ Close Jan 14 
• SUP 1: 117.16 Low Jan 13          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached support at 117.40, the Nov 7 low and a key level, strengthening the current bearish condition. This opens 116.59, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 119.49, the 20-day EMA. A recovery would be considered corrective and this would allow an oversold condition to unwind.

US‌‌ ‌‌10YR‌‌ ‌‌FUTURE‌‌ ‌‌TECHS:‌‌ (H5) Bearish Trend Structure     

• RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 110-25   High Dec 12   
• RES 2: 109-24+ 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 108-21+/109-06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31 
• PRICE:‌‌ 107-11+ @ 19:33 GMT Jan 14
• SUP 1: 107-06   Low Jan 13   
• SUP 2: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 107-00   Round number support
• SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and the needle points south. Monday’s bearish start to the week, has once again, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 107-04 next, the Apr 25 ‘24 low (cont) and key support. Note too that MA studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-21+, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective.             

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Support Remains Intact              

• RES 4: 5097.00 High Oct 14
• RES 3: 5080.00 High Oct 15      
• RES 2: 5068.13 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing   
• RES 1: 5054.00 High Jan 8          
• PRICE: 5000.00 @ 06:18 GMT Jan 15  
• SUP 1: 4939.33/4876.00 50-day EMA / Low Jan 3         
• SUP 2: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support     
• SUP 3: 4800.87 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 4775.00 Low Nov 29 

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Initial support is at 4939.33, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this EMA would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance at 5040.00, Dec 9 high, has recently been pierced. Clearance of it would resume the bull cycle that started on Nov 21 and open 5068.13, a Fibonacci projection.       

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bear Threat Remains Present     

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 2: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26 
• RES 1: 5987.43 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance          
• PRICE: 5866.50 @ 07:18 GMT Jan 15 
• SUP 1: 5809.00 Low Jan 13        
• SUP 2: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 
• SUP 3: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24

A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. The reversal from the Dec 26 high, confirmed the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support, has been breached. This strengthens a bearish theme and sights are on 5784.00, the Nov 4 low and an important short-term support. Initial pivot resistance is seen at 5987.43, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H5) Impulsive Bull Phase Remains Intact                     

• RES 4: $85.85 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 10 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing    
• RES 3: $84.63 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $83.79 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $81.68 - High Jan 13          
• PRICE: $80.37 @ 07:00 GMT Jan 15 
• SUP 1: $77.89 - High Jan 8    
• SUP 2: $76.08 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $71.59 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 4: $70.52 - Low Dec 6 

Brent futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery confirms a continuation of the current bull cycle and an acceleration of it. Key resistance at $79.50, the Oct 7 high, has been breached. Clearance of this level strengthens the bullish theme and opens $83.79, the Jul 5 high. Key short-term support is seen at $76.08, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would allow an overbought condition to unwind.             

WTI TECHS: (G5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat               

• RES 4: $80.60 - 3.00 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing   
• RES 3: $80.14 - High Apr 12 ‘244 and a key M/T resistance   
• RES 2: $79.59 - High Jul 5 ‘24 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $79.27 - High Jan 13    
• PRICE: $78.00 @ 07:12 GMT Jan 15 
• SUP 1: $75.29 - High Jan 8      
• SUP 2: $72.69 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $68.42 - Low Dec 20 
• SUP 4: $66.71 - Low Dec 6

The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and the contract is trading just ahead of its recent highs. The stronger reversal to the upside has resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle strengthens a bull theme and opens $79.59, the Jul 5 ‘24 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose the 20-day EMA, at $73.15. This average is seen as a key short-term support.             

GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance        

• RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1  
• RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
• RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12    
• RES 1: $2698.0 - High Jan 10     
• PRICE: $2682.2 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: $2644.3 - 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
• SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 

Recent gains in Gold appear corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal continues to hold on to the bulk of last week’s gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. A stronger recovery would open $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2644.3, the 50-day EMA.                 

SILVER TECHS: Support Remains Exposed                  

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $30.661 - High Jan 10                             
• PRICE: $29.992 @ 07:56 GMT Jan 15  
• SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.