MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Remains Bearish

Price Signal Summary – AUD Remains Bearish Despite Bounce Off Lows

• The S&P E-Minis contract started the week on a bearish note. The gap lower Monday and a breach of support at 5948.00, the Jan 27 low, strengthens a bearish threat and cancels - for now - a recent bullish theme. A sharp reversal lower in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract on Monday signals the end of the recent bull run - for now - and the start of a corrective cycle. Price gapped lower and traded through the 20-day EMA, at 5159.26.
• Despite a recovery from Monday’s low, the latest pullback in GBPUSD highlights a bearish threat. The move down signals the end of the Jan 13 - 27 correction and note too that resistance at 1.2504, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. USDJPY is in consolidation mode. The primary trend condition is bullish, however, the Jan 27 move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low on Monday. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A continuation would open 0.6045.    
• Last week’s move down in WTI futures marked an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.30. A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Last week’s extension higher and Monday’s gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend.         
• Bund futures traded higher Monday and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Price is through resistance at 132.22, the Jan 22 high, and has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Recent gains in Gilt futures continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s high print and Monday’s climb, reinforce current conditions.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South     

• RES 4: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.0446 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0387 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.0350 Low Jan 31 and high Feb 3
• PRICE: 1.0295 @ 05:55 GMT Feb 4 
• SUP 1: 1.0221 61.8% retracement of the Jan 3 low-high range
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing 
• SUP 4: 0.9947 76.4% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - Jul 18’23 bull leg 

EURUSD recovered from Monday’s intraday low, however, for now, gains are considered corrective. Yesterday’s fresh cycle low, highlights a resumption of the downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and attention is on 1.0138, the 1.764 projection of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing. Clearance of this level would open 1.0031, the 2.00 projection. Initial resistance is 1.0350, the Jan 31 low and Monday’s high.      

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact    

• RES 4: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing
• RES 3: 1.2576 High Jan 7    
• RES 2: 1.2504/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 and key resistance  
• RES 1: 1.2455 High Jan 3 
• PRICE: 1.2400 @ 06:09 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 1.2249 Low Jan 3   
• SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
• SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

Despite a recovery from Monday’s low, the latest pullback in GBPUSD highlights a bearish threat. The move down signals the end of the Jan 13 - 27 correction and note too that resistance at 1.2504, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. Furthermore, MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would open 1.2100, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would alter the picture.           

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat              

• RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 0.8421 High Jan 27  
• RES 2: 0.8374 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.8363 High Jan 3  
• PRICE: 0.8305 @ 06:30 GMT Feb 4 
• SUP 1: 0.8248 Low Feb 3
• SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range   
• SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg 

EURGBP traded in a volatile manner on Monday. The bear cycle that started Jan 20 remains in play and Monday’s initial sell-off has strengthened a bearish threat. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards the first key support at 0.8223, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, the 20-day EMA is seen as a key short-term resistance - at 0.8374. A breach of the average would highlight a bullish development.  

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points South 

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12  
• RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 155.72/156.75 20-day EMA / High Jan 23       
• PRICE: 155.23 @ 06:49 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 153.72/34 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 18  
• SUP 2: 152.55 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
• SUP 3: 151.81 Low Dec 12   
• SUP 4: 151.06 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg   

USDJPY is in consolidation mode. The primary trend condition is bullish, however, the Jan 27 move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of the bear leg would open 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.        

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook                      

• RES 4: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24   
• RES 2: 161.97 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 160.48 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 159.91 @ 07:06 GMT Feb 4  
• SUP 1: 157.97 Low Feb 3
• SUP 2: 156.99 Low Dec 4     
• SUP 3: 156.18 Low Dec 3 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24   

EURJPY traded to a fresh short-term cycle low Monday, confirming a resumption of the bear leg that started Dec 30 last year. An important retracement point at 158.24, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards 156.18, the Dec 3 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch, and a pivot level, is 161.97, the 50-day EMA.               

AUDUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective     

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 
• RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13               
• RES 2: 0.6307/31 50-day EMA / High Jan 24  
• RES 1: 0.6244 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.6205 @ 07:55 GMT Feb 4 
• SUP 1: 0.6088 Low Feb 3
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low on Monday. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A continuation would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is at 0.6307, the 50-day EMA. Gains are - for now - considered corrective.   

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish   

• RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003  
• RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
• RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3    
• PRICE: 1.4435 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 4  
• SUP 1: 1.4398 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.4290 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24

USDCAD traded sharply higher Monday, before reversing lower into the close. Despite the pullback, Monday’s gains reinforce and strengthen bullish conditions. The break higher has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and sets the scene for a climb towards 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting  a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch is 1.4398, the 20-day EMA (pierced). 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Bullish Cycle       

• RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg            
• RES 3: 134.29 High Dec 20
• RES 2: 133.73 50.0% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
• RES 1: 133.58 High Feb 3                  
• PRICE: 132.95 @ 05:30 GMT Feb 4 
• SUP 1: 132.14 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24            
• SUP 3: 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)     

Bund futures traded higher Monday and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Price is through resistance at 132.22, the Jan 22 high, and has cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher confirms a resumption of the corrective bull cycle that started Jan 14. This signals scope for an extension towards 133.73, a Fibonacci retracement point. Firm short-term support has been defined at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low.                        

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play    

• RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20          
• RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg    
• RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 117.980 High Jan 3                              
• PRICE: 117.630 @ 05:47 GMT Feb 4  
• SUP 1: 117.380 Low Jan 3                 
• SUP 2: 117.165 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24  
• SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and a key support       

A short-term bullish corrective phase in Bobl futures remains in play and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of 117.800, 50.0% of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg, would signal scope for an extension towards 118.258, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg. Initial support to watch lies at 117.165, the 20-day EMA.           

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Clears Resistance               

• RES 4: 107.233 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
• RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20    
• RES 2: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 107.045 High Jan 3          
• PRICE: 106.890 @ 06:07 GMT Feb 4   
• SUP 1: 106.805 Low Jan 3               
• SUP 2: 106.703 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30 
• SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support  

Schatz futures traded sharply higher Monday, marking an extension of the bull cycle that started Jan 15. The contract has traded through a number of important resistance points and the latest impulsive gains highlight a stronger reversal. The focus is on 107.081, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 106.703, the 20-day EMA. First support is 106.805, Monday’s intraday low.                                       

GILT TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Extends            

• RES 4: 94.50 High Dec 16 
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 2: 93.64 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 93.54 High Feb 3                 
• PRICE: 93.19@ Close Feb 3
• SUP 1: 92.11/91.52 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24                                
• SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
• SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing

Recent gains in Gilt futures continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s high print and Monday’s climb, reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high. Sights are on 93.64, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. Initial firm support lies at 91.52, the Jan 24 low.  First support 92.11, the 20-day EMA.                     

BTP TECHS: (H5) Has Traded Through Key Moving Averages                         

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12      
• RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 1: 120.45 HIgh Jan 3     
• PRICE: 120.34 @ Close Feb 3 
• SUP 1: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

Recent gains in BTP futures continue to highlight a corrective phase. The latest move higher has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension of the bull cycle and sights are on 120.98, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the correction.            

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Short-Term Reversal Highlights A Correction                  

• RES 4: 5381.13 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing 
• RES 3: 5335.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing     
• RES 2: 5327.00 High Jan 31 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 5245.00 Intraday high           
• PRICE: 5215.00 @ 06:20 GMT Feb 4   
• SUP 1: 5112.00 Low Jan 3            
• SUP 2: 5056.82 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4991.00 Low Jan 15  
• SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support  

A sharp reversal lower in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract on Monday signals the end of the recent bull run - for now - and the start of a corrective cycle. Price gapped lower and traded through the 20-day EMA, at 5159.26. A continuation of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards the 50-day EMA, at 5056.82. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 5327.00, the Jan 31 high.           

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bearish Threat Still Present           

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 6162.25 High Jan 24 
• RES 2: 6147.75 High Jan 31 
• RES 1: 6069.00 High Feb 3                
• PRICE: 6017.50 @ 07:25 GMT Feb 4 
• SUP 1: 5935.50 Low Feb 3           
• SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14 
• SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key resistance 

The S&P E-Minis contract started the week on a bearish note. The gap lower Monday and a breach of support at 5948.00, the Jan 27 low, strengthens a bearish threat and cancels - for now - a recent bullish theme. An extension down would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial resistance is at 6069.00, today’s intraday high. Gains are considered corrective, however, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J5) Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA                     

• RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing    
• RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $78.80/81.20 - High Jan 23 / 15 and the bull trigger            
• PRICE: $75.31 @ 07:09 GMT Feb 4  
• SUP 1: $75.49/74.98 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 30  
• SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
• SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 

Brent futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at $75.49 (pierced). The latest pullback is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the bull trigger at $81.20, the Jan 15 high.              

WTI TECHS: (H5) Support Remains Exposed                 

• RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)    
• RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing  
• RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• RES 1: $79.48 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key resistance   
• PRICE: $72.10 @ 07:20 GMT Feb 4 
• SUP 1: $72.30/71.76 - 50-day EMA / Intraday low      
• SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
• SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 

Last week’s move down in WTI futures marked an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.30. A clear break of the 50-day average would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.              

GOLD TECHS: Northbound            

• RES 4: $2917.5 - 1.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing    
• RES 3: $2900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $2867.5 - 1.50 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2845.2 - 1.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing   
• PRICE: $2811.1@ 07:23 GMT Feb 4 
• SUP 1: $2736.4/2692.6 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $2656.9 - Low Jan 13 
• SUP 3: $2614.8 - Low Jan 6  
• SUP 4: $2583.6 - Low Dec 19 and a key support 

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Last week’s extension higher and Monday’s gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $2845.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2692.6, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $2736.4.                   

SILVER TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs                       

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $31.737 - High Jan 30                              
• PRICE: $31.479 @ 08:05 GMT Feb 4   
• SUP 1: $29.704/28.748 - Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

Silver continues to trade at its recent highs. A bear cycle that started on Oct 23 last year remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the latest move higher does suggest scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. Support to watch is $29.704, the Jan 27 low, and $28.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.