MNI BOE Review: Apr 2026 Hike by July if Hormuz remains closed

Hike by July Looking Likely if Straight of Hormuz Isn’t Reopened

Hidden PDF

• We think it is only a matter of time before Greene and Mann vote for a hike. If the Straight of Hormuz remains blocked at the time of the June MPC meeting our base case would be that both vote for a hike then.
• For the MPC to reach quorum we would need two out of Lombardelli, Ramsden and Governor Bailey to support a hike. There is a question mark over June: we think Lombardelli needs to see more risks of Scenario C to support a hike, we think that Ramsden will support a hike if Scenario B becomes his base case (he is currently between A and C) while we are less clear exactly what Governor Bailey is looking for – given that he seems more concerned than Lombardelli or Ramsden about the impacts on growth.
• We look through what the BOE will be looking for in upcoming meetings including its short-term CPI forecasts to know where the bar will be to reach quorum for a hike in June or July.
• The DMP and Agents surveys seem the most important releases, alongside CPI .
• We also summarise over 20 updated sellside views since last week's MPC meeting.