MNI ASIA OPEN: Home Sales Off, Claims Steady, Williams on Infl

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• MNI FED: Warsh's Five Reform Task Forces Include Academic, Private Sector Names
• MNI FED: SOMA's Perli: Reserve Management Purchases Not On Preset Course
• MNI US DATA: Weekly Claims As Expected, Still Relatively Healthy
• MNI US DATA: Existing Home Sales Weaken With Affordability Still A Concern

US

MNI FED: Warsh's Five Reform Task Forces Include Academic, Private Sector Names The Fed has announced details of the 5 task forces announced by Chair Warsh at the June FOMC meeting, with some well-known names on the roster (link here)

• The leaders of the five task forces, and their objectives, are below. There was no timeline provided for them to reach their findings though Warsh has indicated that we could get some results by year-end (in June's press conference he said "I think it’ll depend on the task force and also depends on the urgency in which we need clear answers. My expectation—I’m still in the business of recruiting and finalizing them—my expectation is the task forces will begin work in the next couple of weeks, and we’ll start to get some more information from them, some more framing of how they see things starting in the fall, and hopefully most, if not all of them, concluding by year-end").

MNI FED: NY's Williams Reiterates That Inflation Is Set To Recede, But AI A Risk

NY Fed's Williams made similar comments in a moderated discussion Thursday to those he's made in recent weeks about inflation being too high now but expected to recede in the coming quarters - headlines from the discussion (which wasn't publicly broadcast) are below. He's likely one of the 8 FOMC members who penciled in an end-2026 rate at the current level of 3.625% in his June Dot Plot, I.e. hold through year-end. 

• In one of the few full quotes we've seen, Bloomberg noted that Williams emphasized that his main area of concern with regard to inflation is the upward pressure created by AI-related investment. “If this creates a sustained impulse to demand relative to supply in inflation, I do think that’s the kind of situation where you don’t look through this". And if such inflation proved persistent, “then monetary policy would need to respond to that" (i.e. hike). But “on the other hand, if it isn’t and things play out in a more benign way, I do think monetary policy is, and continues to be, well positioned."

CANADA

MNI INTERVIEW: Trade Delays BOC Hike Until Late 2027-Stillo The drag from U.S. tariffs remains the key risk for Bank of Canada policymakers, likely delaying any rise in interest rates from Governor Tiff Macklem until late next year despite the inflation threat from higher oil prices, a former official from the country's largest province told MNI. U.S. President Donald Trump's failure to renew the USMCA pact on July 1 and opt for annual reviews puts more focus on damage to Canada's exports and investment says Tony Stillo, former forecasting manager at Ontario’s finance ministry now at Oxford Economics. The Iran conflict remains a risk but has yet to disrupt long-term inflation expectations Macklem has focused on as a condition for hikes  Stillo says.

NEWS

MNI MIDEAST: Iranian Missiles 'Dealt With And Countered'-Jordanian Gov't Spox

Reuters reports that Jordan's state news agency has said sirens were sounded following the detection of missiles entering Jordanian airspace from Iran (earlier reports noted only that sirens were sounding). Minister of Government Communication and Government Spokesperson Mohammad Al-Momani said that the missiles were dealt with and countered. Amid the escalation in attacks over the past 48 hours, Iran has launched missiles and drones at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. It remains to be seen whether Iranian missiles were targeting US sites in Jordan, such as the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, or were heading towards Israel.

Dozens of headlines reporting explosions heard around several Iran ports Thursday, for example: 6 EXPLOSIONS HEARD IN IRAN'S BUSHEHR AND CHOGHADAK - MEHR NEWS AGENCY

US TSYS

MNI FED: SOMA's Perli: Reserve Management Purchases Not On Preset Course NY Fed SOMA manager Perli cleared up a matter from the June FOMC that wasn't addressed in the minutes to the meeting in a speech  Thursday on "Repo Market Structure and Monetary Policy Implementation" : 

• "Many of you will have noticed that the FOMC implementation note was changed at the June meeting to make explicit that temporary pauses in RMPs could occur if money market conditions warrant. That represents flexibility that the Desk could use in the future, for example if money market conditions eased again substantially. The Desk’s strategy to determine the monthly amounts of RMPs, however, has not changed—we will continue to set those amounts with the aim of keeping reserves within the ample range."

MNI US TSYS: Tsy Ylds Dip, Home Sales Fall, Claims Steady, Fed Williams on Inflation

• Treasuries look to finish near moderate late session highs Thursday - rather subdued session after home sales drew a larger reaction in markets then weekly claims, little reaction to Fed speak, US/Iran tensions on simmer after trading attacks overnight.
• NY Fed's Williams made similar comments in a moderated discussion Thursday to those he's made in recent weeks about inflation being too high now but expected to recede in the coming quarters - headlines from the discussion (which wasn't publicly broadcast) are below.
• The Fed has announced details of the 5 task forces announced by Chair Warsh at the June FOMC meeting, with some well-known names on the roster (link here)
• Existing home sales unexpectedly fell in June, coming in at 4.09M (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate) vs 4.20M consensus/4.19M prior rev from 4.17M. The 2.4% pullback was the first drop in 3 months and drags sales closer to the 4M level that has prevailed for most of the last 2 years after May's was the 2nd highest since mid-2023.
• Initial claims were close to expected as they dipped to 215k (sa, cons 217k) in the week to Jul 4 after an upward revised 217k (initial 215k). Continuing claims were little changed at 1814k (sa, cons 1814k) in the week to Jun 27 after a downward revised 1806k (initial 1814k), consolidating rather than extending an increase off May lows of 1718k.
• TYU6 currently +8 at 109-08 (10Y yld -.0420 at 4.5371%). Treasuries maintain a softer tone despite today’s gains. This week’s move lower reinforces a bear threat. The move down resulted in a breach of 109-06, the Jun 22 low, signalling scope for an extension towards 108-25, the Jun 8 low. Key support and the bear trigger is 108-08+, the May 19 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 109-25+, the Jul 2 / 6 high. A break of it would be bullish and expose 110-10+, the Jun 26 high and bull trigger.
• Look ahead: Norwegian CPI data is scheduled on Friday, ahead of Canada June employment data. No scheduled US data on tap tomorrow, focus on next week's CPI and PPI data on Tuesday/Wednesday respectively.

OVERNIGHT DATA

MNI US DATA: Existing Home Sales Weaken With Affordability Still A Concern Existing home sales unexpectedly fell in June, coming in at 4.09M (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate) vs 4.20M consensus/4.19M prior rev from 4.17M. The 2.4% pullback was the first drop in 3 months and drags sales closer to the 4M level that has prevailed for most of the last 2 years after May's was the 2nd highest since mid-2023.

• Inventories fell 0.6% but the poor sales nudged up the months-of-supply metric to 4.6 from 4.5 for a fresh 10-month high though, suggesting a little more slack in the market; prices were still up 1.8% on a Y/Y NSA basis.

MNI US DATA: Weekly Claims As Expected, Still Relatively Healthy Weekly jobless claims didn’t offer any surprises with the initial claims four-week average easing a little after rising through May and June whilst continuing claims again consolidated rather than extended an increase off May lows. 

• Initial claims were close to expected as they dipped to 215k (sa, cons 217k) in the week to Jul 4 after an upward revised 217k (initial 215k)
• Continuing claims were little changed at 1814k (sa, cons 1814k) in the week to Jun 27 after a downward revised 1806k (initial 1814k), consolidating rather than extending an increase off May lows of 1718k. It’s still a relatively modest increase compared to the decline from the >1900k readings seen through 2H25.

MNI US DATA: Chicago Fed CARTS Points To Very Strong Core June Retail Sales

The Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) preliminary estimate for June retail sales ex-autos growth is 0.7% M/M, vs +0.8% actual in May. While this would mark a more impressive nominal figure for ex-auto sales than currently expected (the Bloomberg consensus for July 16th's Census Bureau release: -0.1%), it's even more impressive in real growth terms: +1.4% (was 0.0% in May).

MARKETS SNAPSHOT

Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA up 139.02 points (0.27%) at 52487.41
S&P E-Mini Future up 58.5 points (0.78%) at 7587.5
Nasdaq up 336.2 points (1.3%) at 26206.89
US 10-Yr yield is down 3.2 bps at 4.5471%
US Sep 10-Yr futures are up 5.5/32 at 109-5.5
EURUSD up 0.0013 (0.11%) at 1.143
USDJPY down 0.21 (-0.13%) at 162.38
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $1.71 (-2.33%) at $71.81
Gold is up $43.75 (1.07%) at $4121.21

European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 up 79.36 points (1.28%) at 6284.27
FTSE 100 down 16.59 points (-0.16%) at 10472.45
French CAC 40 up 73.96 points (0.9%) at 8326.62

US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE

Curve update:
3M10Y +0.916, 76.876 (L: 73.153 / H: 77.967)
2Y10Y +1.794, 37.479 (L: 36.102 / H: 39.027)
2Y30Y +3.455, 88.537 (L: 85.602 / H: 90.065)
5Y30Y +3.685, 77.977 (L: 74.675 / H: 78.924)
Current futures levels:
Sep 2-Yr futures up 1.75/32 at 103-0.25 (L: 102-28.875 / H: 103-01.375)
Sep 5-Yr futures up 4.5/32 at 106-22.5 (L: 106-13.75 / H: 106-25.25)
Sep 10-Yr futures up 5.5/32 at 109-5.5 (L: 108-27 / H: 109-10.5)
Sep 30-Yr futures up 3/32 at 111-10 (L: 110-25 / H: 111-19)
Sep Ultra futures up 4/32 at 113-13 (L: 112-23 / H: 113-21)

MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U6) Bear Cycle Still In Play Despite A Bounce

• RES 4: 111-03   50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - May 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 110-28+ High May 7, 2026
• RES 2: 110-14   38.2% retracement of the Mar 2 - May 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 109-25+/110-10+ High Jul 2 & 6 / High Jun 26
• PRICE:‌‌ 109-07+ @ 19:38 BST Jul 09
• SUP 1: 108-25   Low Jun 08
• SUP 2: 108-08+ Low May 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-04   1.500 proj of Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 swing
• SUP 4: 107-29   1.618 proj of Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 swing

Treasuries maintain a softer tone despite today’s gains. This week’s move lower reinforces a bear threat. The move down resulted in a breach of 109-06, the Jun 22 low, signalling scope for an extension towards 108-25, the Jun 8 low. Key support and the bear trigger is 108-08+, the May 19 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 109-25+, the Jul 2 / 6 high. A break of it would be bullish and expose 110-10+, the Jun 26 high and bull trigger.

SOFR FUTURES CLOSE

Current White pack (Sep 26-Jun 27):
Sep 26 +0.025 at 96.115
Dec 26 +0.025 at 95.965
Mar 27 +0.025 at 95.90
Jun 27 +0.025 at 95.915
Red Pack (Sep 27-Jun 28) +0.025 to +0.030
Green Pack (Sep 28-Jun 29) +0.030 to +0.035
Blue Pack (Sep 29-Jun 30) +0.025 to +0.030
Gold Pack (Sep 30-Jun 31) +0.025 to +0.030

REFERENCE RATES
​​​​​​​
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.58% (-0.04), volume: $3.158T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.57% (-0.03), volume: $1.319T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.57% (-0.03), volume: $1.279T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:

• Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.62% (-0.01), volume: $131B
• Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.62% (+0.00), volume: $266B

FED Reverse Repo Operation

RRP usage to $5.772B with 6 counterparties this afternoon vs. $3.347B Wednesday. Compares to last year's highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30, 2025.

MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 07/09 $900M #Public Storage Corp $400M +5Y +58, $500M 10Y +80
• 07/09 $800M #Trinidad & Tobago 12Y +180
• 07/09 $700M #Guardian Life 3Y +55

MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Periphery Leads Broad Rally

European yields dropped sharply Thursday, with periphery/semi-core EGBs outperforming overall.

• Following the bond rout earlier this week on the back of re-escalation between the US and Iran, EGBs and Gilts traded more constructively in early trade in a bull steepening move as energy prices abated.
• The initial optimism would fade and yields picked up off session lows by late morning. But ultimately the rally would resume and continue through to the cash close, with oil pulling back more decisively as US desks came online and reacted to various cues (including a lack of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure).
• Yields would close on the session lows, with bull steepening across both the UK and German curves and Gilts slightly outperforming Bunds.
• And as noted, periphery/semi-core spreads tightened substantially amid a cross-asset risk on move, with Italian and Greek 10Y spreads falling 6bp.
• Even so, yields remain well above levels coming into the week.
• The accounts of the ECB's latest meeting show a decision to be deliberately neutral on whether the June hike was the start of a hiking cycle or a one-off move whilst unsurprisingly reiterating it was a robust policy decision.
• Data on Friday includes some final June inflation readings including France and Germany, along with some industrial production readings (including Italy). We also get commentary from ECB's Vujcic and Stournaras.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 6.2bps at 2.647%, 5-Yr is down 5.2bps at 2.766%, 10-Yr is down 0.8bps at 3.084%, and 30-Yr is down 1.5bps at 3.626%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 9bps at 4.241%, 5-Yr is down 8.3bps at 4.429%, 10-Yr is down 7.7bps at 4.897%, and 30-Yr is down 6.7bps at 5.624%.
• Italian BTP spread down 6.2bps at 75.4bps / French OAT down 5.3bps at 77.1bps  

MNI FOREX: NZD Outperformance Notable in Overall Steady Session

• The dollar tilts marginally lower on Thursday owing to firmer risk sentiment and a solid pullback for Brent crude futures back below $77/bbl. Moves for the greenback have remained contained, however, with the DXY spending the entire week broadly respecting a 100.80-101.20 range. This consolidating price action keeps 20-day EMA support intact, and the bullish trend in place for now.
• Standing out on the session has been the relative outperformance for the New Zealand dollar. The steady grind higher for NZDUSD has continued across Thursday’s session, with intra-day gains extending to 1% in recent trade. Topside momentum appears to have been assisted on a break of the 20-day EMA for the pair, which intersected today around the 0.5720 mark.
• Next resistance is seen at 0.5782, the 50-day EMA, while key supports for AUDNZD are also fast approaching.
• We have highlighted trendline support for AUDNZD coming in at 1.2059 today, a break of which could help exacerbate the move south for the cross. This would signal scope for a retest of the early June lows at 1.1984, and should the move really start to accelerate, 1.1799 is an obvious target further out.
• Renewed strength for crude this week has assisted a solid rebound for NOKSEK, and moderate strength today briefly saw this recovery extend to a little over 2%. A print above 0.9978 would place the cross at its highest level since June 11, likely dismissing the recent bearish threat posed across June.
• Norwegian CPI data is scheduled on Friday, ahead of Canada June employment data, which headlines the calendar.

FRIDAY DATA CALENDAR

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
10/07/2026	0600/0800	***	DE	Germany CPI (f)
10/07/2026	0600/0800	***	DE	Germany CPI (f)
10/07/2026	0600/0800	***	NO	CPI Norway
10/07/2026	0615/0815		EU	ECB Vujcic Panel at Greece Annual Economist Roundtable
10/07/2026	0645/0845	***	FR	HICP (f)
10/07/2026	0700/0300	***	CZ	Czech Republic Final CPI
10/07/2026	0800/1000	*	IT	Industrial Production
10/07/2026	-	***	CN	Money Supply
10/07/2026	-	***	CN	New Loans
10/07/2026	-	***	CN	Social Financing
10/07/2026	1200/0800	**	BR	Brazil Final CPI
10/07/2026	1200/0800	*	US	NY Fed SOFR
10/07/2026	1230/0830	*	CA	Building Permits
10/07/2026	1230/0830	***	CA	Labour Force Survey
10/07/2026	1230/0830	***	CA	Labour Force Survey
10/07/2026	1300/0900	*	US	NY Fed EFFR
10/07/2026	1600/1200	***	US	USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
10/07/2026	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
10/07/2026	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
10/07/2026	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly