US DATA: Mixed But Still More Modest Inflation Expectations In NY Fed Survey
The NY Fed consumer survey saw mixed results for inflation expectations, with a small increase for 1Y, no change for 3Y and a more notable increase for 5Y. It remains a much more measured survey than the swings seen in U.Mich equivalent, for example.
- 1Y inflation expectations: 3.09% in July after 3.02% in June and 3.20% in May.
- 3Y inflation expectations: 3.00% in July, unchanged for what has been a particularly sticky series with six of the last seven months at 3.0%.
- 5Y inflation expectations: 2.88% in July after 2.61% in June for its highest since February.
- Focusing on the 1Y, it’s a second month where it has broadly reversed the rise to 3.6% in both March and April on US tariff fears. Whilst the 1Y of 3.1% is low by post-pandemic standards, it has stabilized above pre-pandemic levels such as the 2.6% averaged in 2019 or 2.7% over a longer-term average of 2015-19.
- This 1Y measure has been much more restrained compared to the 4.5% currently seen for U.Mich and 4.7% median for the Conference Board surveys.
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FED: US TSY 52W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.179 BLN FROM $50.000 BLN TOTAL
- US TSY 52W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.179 BLN FROM $50.000 BLN TOTAL
OPTIONS: Expiries for Jul09 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.1600(E536mln), $1.1675-90(E742mln), $1.1700(E1.7bln)
- USD/JPY: Y144.00-10($1.4bln), Y144.50($860mln)
- EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8655-65(E633mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6425(A$700mln), $0.6550(A$557mln)
- NZD/USD: $0.6075(N$519mln)
TARIFFS: Trump On Truth: August 1 Deadline Reasserted
Trump on Truth Social: Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
As per letters sent to various countries yesterday, in addition to letters that will be sent today, tomorrow, and for the next short period of time, TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025. There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change. In other words, all money will be due and payable starting AUGUST 1, 2025 - No extensions will be granted. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
