SOFR: Mix Of Net Short Setting & Long Cover Seen In Futures On Thursday
OI data points to net short setting dominating through the SOFR greens on Thursday (albeit with some pockets of net long cover seen), before net long cover moved to the fore in the blues.
| 07-Aug-25 | 06-Aug-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,218,240 | 1,225,424 | -7,184 | Whites | +16,474 |
SFRU5 | 1,274,769 | 1,292,092 | -17,323 | Reds | +17,991 |
SFRZ5 | 1,385,112 | 1,352,639 | +32,473 | Greens | +25,013 |
SFRH6 | 1,050,983 | 1,042,475 | +8,508 | Blues | -5,780 |
SFRM6 | 887,747 | 867,062 | +20,685 |
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SFRU6 | 852,882 | 856,066 | -3,184 |
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SFRZ6 | 959,163 | 951,417 | +7,746 |
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SFRH7 | 719,055 | 726,311 | -7,256 |
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SFRM7 | 797,311 | 780,952 | +16,359 |
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SFRU7 | 578,484 | 576,331 | +2,153 |
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SFRZ7 | 515,737 | 511,115 | +4,622 |
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SFRH8 | 334,209 | 332,330 | +1,879 |
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SFRM8 | 262,305 | 267,670 | -5,365 |
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SFRU8 | 205,282 | 205,702 | -420 |
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SFRZ8 | 216,791 | 216,888 | -97 |
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SFRH9 | 152,754 | 152,652 | +102 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Support In Gold
- On the commodity front, recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5, May 29 low. Note, the recovery from the Jun 30 low also highlights a possible false trendline break. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3451.3, Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, Jun 30 low. First resistance is $3365.80, the Jul 3 high.
- In the oil space, WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains still appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.09. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.
US TSYS: Sites on June FOMC Minutes, Projected Rate Cuts Near 50Bp by Year End
- Treasuries are trading firmer, inside narrow overnight ranges - setting sites on this afternoon's FOMC minutes for the June meeting - on an otherwise light data schedule: MBA Mortgage Applications at 0700ET, Wholesale Trade Sales/Inventories at 1000ET. No scheduled Fed speakers today.
- The minutes should underline the Committee's patience in making its next rate move amid heightened tariff-related economic uncertainty, as encapsulated in the meeting's Dot Plot which showed participants largely divided between no cuts and 2 cuts by year-end.
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures are currently +2 at 110-27, inside a narrow 5.5 tick range on modest volume (TYU5 under 285k). Futures maintain a softer short-term tone following the retracement that started Jul 1. Sights are on 110-17 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break would strengthen a bearish threat. Resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high.
- Projected rate cut pricing largely steady vs late Tuesday (*) levels: Jul'25 steady at -1.2bp, Sep'25 steady at -17.3bp, Oct'25 steady at -31.7bp, Dec'25 at -49.3bp (-48.6bp).
- Cross asset roundup: Bbg US$ index mildly higher (BBDXY +.84 at 1197.47), Gold softer (-7.15 at 3294.77), crude mildly higher (WTI +0.25 at 68.58), stocks mildly higher (SPX eminis +8.25 at 6280.25).
US-EU: EU on Standby for Potential Trade Announcement Tonight
Guardian correspondent on state of EU-US trade: "EU is on standby for an announcement tonight (or maybe not) with ambassadors meeting again this afternoon Trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic spoke to commerce secretary Howard Lutnick today and will speak to Jamieson Greer this afternoon"
