US IG CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Meritage Homes (MTH): 3Q26 Results (Headlines)

• RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Jan 30 - Mar 31 - May 1 price swing  
• RES 3: 1.4248 High Jun 24 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.4239 High Jul 6
• RES 1: 1.4175 High Jul 13
• PRICE: 1.4172 @ 16:50 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 1.3979 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3955/3732 50-day EMA / Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3715 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3672 Low May 12

USDCAD continues to appreciate and today’s fresh cycle high, highlights a bullish start to this week’s session. The pair continues to trade above the 50-day EMA. Note too that last week’s gains confirmed a breach of 1.4126, the 76.4% retracement point of the Jun 24 - Aug 21 bear leg. This opens 1.4248, the Jun 24 high and the next key resistance. First key support to watch lies at 1.3948, the 50-day EMA.  

• Treasuries see-sawed weaker Monday, look to finish off session/new cycle lows (TYZ6 104-08, yld 5.2719%) as crude pared early highs ((WTI appr $96.50/bbl) as US/Iran officials alternately announced successful peace discussions only to deny them later in the session:
• "U.S. official to Al Jazeera: Trump is ready to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear file - Al Jazeera. Followed by Bloomberg headline: "REPORTS OF IRANIAN FLEXIBILITY IN NUCLEAR TALKS FALSE: PRESS TV".
• The Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for September was strong in both the headline reading and the details, building on August's strength. While the general business activity index dipped to 9.8 from 11.6 prior, it beat the 7.8 expected, and August's had been an 18-month high. But as the report put it, "price and wage pressures increased broadly".
• Fed Governor Cook implied she could support further rate hikes in a speech Monday: "looking ahead, I will consider what policy rate may be needed to continue to guide inflation down to our target.
• Core PCE is seen rising 0.27% M/M (range 0.23-0.32) in August after what’s currently 0.25% M/M in July. This month also includes annual revisions and in particular telegraphed changes in source data for three categories which have had an outsized impact on core PCE over the past year.
• Look ahead: RBA's rate announcement tomorrow - expected 25bp hike bringing rates to 4.6%, highest in 15 years. Additionally, Canadian GDP, US consumer confidence and JOLTS jobs data are all due. Markets will then look forward to US PCE and NFP as key event risk later in the week.

 "*REPORTS OF IRANIAN FLEXIBILITY IN NUCLEAR TALKS FALSE: PRESS TV" -bbg
"*IRAN'S PRESS TV CITES INFORMED SOURCE ON IRANIAN POSITION"