US TSYS: Markets Still Pensive Post-ISM Services, Await Word of US/Iran Deal

• Treasuries extend session lows after latest ISM data: Services decline - but in line with estimates, New Orders retreats more than estimated while Service Employment comes out higher than estimated.
• TYU6 down to 109-18 (-.5) before bouncing to 109-19 (+.5). First key support to watch remains 109-06, the Jun 22 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish.
• Projected rate hike pricing firms slightly vs. early morning levels (*): Jul'26 at +6bp, Sep'26 at +16.6bp (+16.1bp), Oct'26 at +21.5bp 20.4bp), Dec'26 +30.6bp (+29bp).

(MNI) London - Ahead of the NATO leaders’ summit Secretary General Mark Rutte hosts a press conference (livestream here) in the Turkish capital, Ankara. Rutte claims that he "already sees transformational progress on the 5% defence spending target". Rutte: "I expect nations to present clear, concrete and credible plans to reach the 5% goal in Ankara." Rutte: "European allies [and] Canada [are] already investing around 4% of their GDP in defence and security. [...] European allies, Canada [are] on a trajectory to equalise defence spending with the US." 

• Says that NATO "Will announce tens of billions of dollars in new contracts at the Defence Industry Forum on Tuesday". Rutte: "The result is not only improved security, it will help grow our economies, spread innovation and support hundreds of 1000s of jobs on both sides of the Atlantic. So we are investing in our own security, ensuring we have what we need to safeguard our societies today and tomorrow".
• Following a ballistic missile test by China in the Pacific, Rutte claims "I think it is evidence of the fact that [NATO] cannot be naive about China...and this is why we have this close cooperation because these theaters are getting more and more intertwined...what happens in the Pacific is relevant to what is happening in the transatlantic, and we see it also with either war with Ukraine, where China, North Korea, and Iran are key enablers of Russia's unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine, so this again is evidence that we cannot be naive..."

• MNI: US ISM JUN SERVICES COMPOSITE INDEX 54.0
• US ISM JUN SERVICES PRICES 67.7
• US ISM JUN SERVICES EMPLOYMENT INDEX 51.2