US IG FINANCIALS: M&T Bank Corp 4Q25 (MTB)
Credit neutral. Stable modest loan growth to pick up 2026, credit quality healthy, loans to CRE ~17%, loans to NDFI ~9%. Continue to adjust CET1 down to target range, via buybacks. Buybacks for now, but CEO sees possible M&A down the road.
(Baa1/BBB+/A)
#MNI #Financials
- NII $1.79B up 1% QQ, NIM 3.69% up 10bps YY
- Loan growth 1.4% to $137B led by consumer and residential RE
- Non-interest income $696MM up 6% YY (sales of commercial mortgages, trust & other services)
- EPS Adj of $4.72 vs $4.47 bbg consensus
- ROCE 10.27% vs 9.54% prior year
- NCO 0.54% up 7bps YY
- ACL 1.53%
- Loan mix: 45% Consumer/ 17% RRE / 17% CRE/ 17% C&I
- Criticized C&I and CRE loans are 8.3%, steady decline
- Loans to Nondepository Financial Institutions ~9% total loans (to resi mortgage warehouses, institutional CRE, private equity, BDCs, wholesale lenders, consumer lenders)
- CEO sees M&A ‘at some point down road’, stock repurchases for now
- CET1 10.84% down 84bps YY; stock buybacks $507MM 4Q
- Outlook 2026: NII $7.2 -7.35B, NIM flatish, NCO down to 0.40%, loan growth ~3%, CET1 10.25-10.5% via buybacks to bring it down to target range
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SONIA: Long Cover Seen In Front End Of Futures Strip Ahead Of CPI
OI data points to net long cover in the SONIA white & red futures packs as contracts ticked lower on Tuesday, presenting slightly cleaner positioning ahead of today’s soft CPI report, aiding today's dovish market reaction.
- Meanwhile, the greens and blues saw shorts added on net on Tuesday.
- Firmer-than-market-expected wage data drove much of Tuesday's market reaction.
| 16-Dec-25 | 15-Dec-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFIZ5 | 469,760 | 467,123 | +2,637 | Whites | -10,211 |
SFIH6 | 358,110 | 363,648 | -5,538 | Reds | -11,893 |
SFIM6 | 373,668 | 379,983 | -6,315 | Greens | +5,864 |
SFIU6 | 351,802 | 352,797 | -995 | Blues | +3,667 |
SFIZ6 | 540,113 | 543,488 | -3,375 |
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SFIH7 | 308,736 | 313,881 | -5,145 |
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SFIM7 | 228,514 | 231,352 | -2,838 |
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SFIU7 | 156,997 | 157,532 | -535 |
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SFIZ7 | 146,456 | 141,514 | +4,942 |
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SFIH8 | 77,123 | 76,493 | +630 |
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SFIM8 | 67,192 | 66,409 | +783 |
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SFIU8 | 53,258 | 53,749 | -491 |
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SFIZ8 | 32,201 | 30,340 | +1,861 |
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SFIH9 | 19,988 | 19,203 | +785 |
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SFIM9 | 25,607 | 24,590 | +1,017 |
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SFIU9 | 19,176 | 19,172 | +4 |
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US: GOP Moderate Signs Dem Petition As Healthcare Battle Dominates Congress
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) has signed a discharge petition put forward by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) that seeks to extend Affordable Care Act (ACA, 'Obamacare') tax credit subsidies for another three years. Fitzpatrick's signature, the first among Republicans, gives the petition the backing of 215 representatives, three votes short of the 218 required to circumvent Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and put the measure to a vote on the House floor.
- Fitzpatrick, whose 1st congressional district is seen as a bellwether district in a bellwether state, said in a statement that GOP moderates had made 'good faith' efforts with both parties to reach a deal on the expiring credits. After the House Rules Committee, under the effective control of Johnson, rejected three amendments from moderates on 16 Dec, Fitpatrick said, "the only policy that is worse than a clean three-year extension without any reforms, is a policy of complete expiration without any bridge. Unfortunately, it is House leadership themselves that have forced this outcome."
- The House is currently debating the rule on the GOP Healthcare bill, approved by the leadership and not containing any ACA extensions, before a vote. If this vote succeeds, a full floor vote takes place later on this afternoon.
- With the Obamacare subsidies expiring at year's end, pushing up premiums for millions, the political ramifications of the internal Republican battle over healthcare look set to dominate the early part of 2026, alongside the looming federal gov't funding cliff at end-Jan.
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening Calls
SPX: 6,825.6 (+0.4%); DJIA: 48,293 (+0.4%/+178pts); NDX: 25,241.0 (+0.4%).
