EU REAL ESTATE: M&G Euro Property (MNGEPF): 5yr Allocs Out
* Final: 500m 5yr ms+100 * Books >1.35bn (from 1.45bn at final) * IPT: EUR 500m WNG 5yr ms+130-135 *...
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US TSYS: Making New Session Highs on More Hormuz Strait Talk
- Treasuries are climbing higher after Al Arabiya reported on "arrangements for complete reopening" of Hormuz Strait" tomorrow.
- Tapping technical resistance (20-day EMA) TYU6 trades 108-24.5 (+11) high. yield -.0366 at 4.6390%
- Next resistance above at 109-08 50-day EMA
IRAN: Al Arabiya: “source for Al Arabiya: Announcement within hours or [...]
Al Arabiya: “source for Al Arabiya: Announcement within hours or tomorrow about arrangements for complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz”
US: Michigan Primary Tests Strength Of Insurgent Wing Of Democratic Party
Michigan Democrats will vote today in one of the most consequential primary elections of the midterm cycle. Progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed is overwhelmingly favoured to defeat centrist Rep Haley Stevens (D-MI), according to prediction markets. A loss in Michigan would dramatically limit credible pathways for Democrats to flip the Senate in November, necessitating at least two major upsets in red states like Texas, Alaska, or Iowa.
- If El-Sayed is successful, it will deliver the insurgent left-wing bloc of the Democratic Party its most high-profile win, holding off a major funding push by the Democratic establishment to support of Stevens.
- El-Sayed’s rise has prompted questions within the party about the electability of candidates with views that fall outside of the traditional Democratic mainstream. Those questions echo the 2022 midterm cycle, when the Republican Party was seen to underperform in key races due to candidate quality.
- Some limited polling appears to suggest that Steven would be better placed to defeat Republican candidate, former House Representative Mike Rogers. The Hill reports, “Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) has a lead over [El-Sayed] and is falling behind [Stevens]," per a new [EPIC-MRA poll].
- El-Sayed’s backers would question the credibility of the polling methodology and argue the polling doesn’t take into consideration efforts to consolidate the Democratic base after the primary election. However, prediction markets note a slight boost in Republican chances in light of El-Sayed’s expected victory.
Figure 1: Michigan Senate Election Winner
Source: Polymarket
