ECB: Macro Since Last Meeting - Prices: HICP Moderates But Momentum Still Solid

• RES 4: 1.3509 High May 25     
• RES 3: 1.3418 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3375 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3303 Low May 18 
• PRICE: 1.3243 @ 15:36 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 1.3163 Low Jun 19
• SUP 2: 1.3159 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.3081 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.3010 Low Nov ’25

A sharp sell-off last week in GBPUSD confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started May 1. This exposes the next key support at 1.3159, the Mar 31 low, where a break would strengthen a medium-term bearish condition. Key resistance to watch is around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3418. A reversal higher and a clear break of the average would signal the start of a bullish cycle. 

• RES 4: 1.1665 Trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 17 high
• RES 3: 1.1619 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 1.1569 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1500 Low Jun 8  
• PRICE: 1.1429 @ 15:04 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 1.1418 Low Jun 19
• SUP 2: 1.1411 Low Mar 13 and 16 and a key M/T support
• SUP 3: 1.1373 1.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1340 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull leg 

The sell-off in EURUSD last week confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Apr 17. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting  dominant downtrend and the move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.1411, the Mar 13 and 16 low and a key medium-term support. Key resistance to watch remains 1.1619, the 50-day EMA. 

Monday's Europe rate/bond options flow included:

• ERU6 97.43/97.56/97.68c fly, bought for 1.25 in 3k
• SFIV6 96.15/96.25/96.30/96.40 call condor, bought for 2.5 in 6k
• SFIV6 96.05/96.15/96.25 call fly bought for 1.5 in 3.5k
• SFIH7 96.20/96.30/96.45/96.55c condor, bought for 1.75 in 5k