AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact For Now

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 17-Apr 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (223k, 225k)
• 17-Apr 0830 Continuing Claims (1.850M, 1.870M)
• 17-Apr 0830 Housing Starts (1.501M, 1.420M), MoM (11.2%, -5.4%)
• 17-Apr 0830 Building Permits (1.459M, 1.450M), MoM (-1.0%, -0.6%)
• 17-Apr 0830 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (12.5, 2.0)
• 17-Apr 1130 US Tsy $85B 4W, $75B 8W bill auctions
• 17-Apr 1145 Feb Gov Barr fireside chat on cyber risks (text, Q&A)
• 17-Apr 1300 US Tsy $25B 5Y TIPS (91282CNB3)

• RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3   
• RES 3: 149.10/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger 
• RES 2: 146.95 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 144.64/146.54 High Apr 11 / Low Mar 11 recent breakout point   
• PRICE: 142.50 @ 15:59 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 142.05 Low Apr 16 and bear trigger     
• SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30 ‘24
• SUP 3: 141.00 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 140.32 Low Sep 17 ‘24

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and the pair is trading at its recent lows. Recent weakness confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 141.65 next, the Sep 30 ‘24 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 146.95.

• Treasuries have scaled back from recent session highs as Chairman Powell has concluded his speech at the Economics Club of Chicago event.
• Tsy Jun'25 10Y trades +8.5 at 111-11 vs. 111-13.5 high, yield 4.2903% -.0427. Curves steeper but off highs: 2s10s +1.179 at 49.569.
• Stocks are still broadly weaker - but off lows at the moment, SPX eminis at 5311.0 (-116.75) Energy sector shares outperforming with crude higher (WTI +.88 at 62.21).