NATGAS: LNG Tanker Appears to Divert Towards Europe

 "*SA'AR: ISRAEL READY TO MOVE FORWARD ON LEBANON DEAL" bbg

• Sa'ar is Israel's Foreign Minister.

• Yesterday’s surge for energy prices and the associated pressure on core fixed income weighed on the low yielders, with specific Swiss Franc weakness reflective of the market’s view of the SNB remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. This translated to Citi’s broad real effective CHF exchange rate index plumbing fresh recent lows, the lowest point since April 2025.
• USDCHF made fresh cycle highs in tandem, rising to 0.8152 overnight and continuing to narrow the gap to an important resistance point for the pair. Both the top of the bull channel (drawn from the year’s lows) and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025-2025 downleg intersect between 0.8200-0.8215.
  • A breach of this area would be a significant medium-term development, signalling scope for a stronger recovery towards 0.8400 which represents an important pivot point.
• Importantly, EURCHF also made progress higher on Monday, rising above 0.9265 resistance to the highest level since January. A trendline drawn from the Aug 2025 highs appears to have capped the topside momentum for now and is the short-term hurdle to a move back to 0.9350.
• SNB minutes of the June meeting are scheduled for Thursday, with focus on any further indication for reasons on the introduction of "if necessary" to the "higher willingness to intervene" FX communications.

Following confirmation that Andy Burnham will be the only MP able to cross the 81-vote threshold and enter the Labour leadership contest, and therefore will become PM on Monday, 20 July, he is due to deliver his first speech in the Commons today since his election as MP for Makerfield in mid-June. 

• While politically notable, Burnham's speech from the backbenches (expected ~18:00BST) is not likely to be market relevant in terms of speaking on economic or fiscal policies he will pursue on taking office.
• He will be speaking in the debate on the Public Office (Accountability) Bill, the so-called 'Hillsborough Law' that would create a legal duty for public officials to tell the truth to inquiries and investigations. Burnham has campaigned on the issue for many years.
• Burnham will not deliver a 'maiden speech'. These speeches, usually light-hearted or personal, are only given by lawmakers addressing the House for the very first time and are heard without interruption. Burnham previously served as MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017.