OIL: Libyan Pipeline Shut

• RES 4: 160.39 High Sep 2
• RES 3: 158.44 50.0% retracement of the Jul 23 - Sep 8 bear leg 
• RES 2: 158.10 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 158.05 High Sep 18
• PRICE: 157.51 @ 07:02 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 154.86/152.89 Low Sep 16 / 8 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 152.10 Low Jan 27
• SUP 3: 151.94 50% retracement of the Apr 22 ‘25 - Jul 23 bull leg
• SUP 4: 151.63 1.00 projection of Jul 23 - Aug 3 - Sep 2 price swing 

A bull cycle that started Sep 8 in USDJPY remains in play for now and price is trading at its recent highs. The pair has also cleared the 20-day EMA, at 156.59. This signals scope for a stronger near-term recovery and attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 158.10. Clearance of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support at 152.89, the Sep 8 low.

• MNI: UK AUG CGNCR-EX GBP +10.05 BLN
• UK AUG PSNB-EX GBP +18.27 BLN
• UK AUG PSNB GBP +18.27 BLN
• UK AUG PSNCR GBP +10.01 BLN

• RES 4: 86.75 High Aug 27 
• RES 3: 86.51 76.4% retracement of theAug 12 - Sep 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 86.38 High Sep 4  
• RES 1: 85.99 Intraday high   
• PRICE: 85.68 @ 06:38 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 84.69/83.72 Low Sep 17 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 83.60 2.236 proj of the Aug 12 - 18 - 25 price swing 
• SUP 3: 83.37 2.382 proj of the Aug 12 - 18 - 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 83.00 Round number support     

Gilt futures are trading at their recent highs. The bounce from the Sep 14 low is considered corrective. However, note that resistance at the 20-day EMA, at  85.47, has been cleared. A clear break of it would suggest scope for a stronger recovery, towards 86.51, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 83.72, the Sep 14 low. First support lies at 84.69, the Sep 17 low.