US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Volume Surge

• +8,500 USQ6 115/117 call spds, 16

• RES 4: 187.95 High Apr 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 187.56 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 186.56 76.4% retracement of the Apr 17 - May 6 bear leg  
• RES 1: 185.86/186.32 High Jun 30 / High Jun 16 and 17
• PRICE: 185.66 @ 17:05 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 183.17 Low Jun 24
• SUP 2: 182.05 Low May 06 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 181.87 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 180.81 Low Feb 12 and a key M/T support  

EURJPY has recovered further from last week’s low. Price has cleared 185.40, the Jun 22 high. The break of this level cancels a recent bear threat and reinstates the bull theme. This signals scope for a climb towards key S/T resistance at 186.32, the Jun 16 and 17 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose support at 183.17, the Jun 24 low. Clearance of this level would suggest potential for a deeper retracement towards 182.05, the May 06 low.

• WTI Crude is lower today, with the visits of US and Iranian delegations to Doha in focus amid uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz transits.
• WTI Aug 26 is down by 1.7% at $69.6/bbl.
• Iranian and Omani experts will start talks on redefining transit paths through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days and will try to obstruct vessels outside defined paths, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said.
• Meanwhile, crude oil production in the region is continuing to recover, with Kuwaiti crude output up to around 1.9m b/d, according to Argus. The UAE has also boosted crude oil and condensate exports to a record high in June, according to Kpler/Vortexa data.
• A short-term bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the sell-off last week reinforces current conditions. Scope is seen for a move towards $65.95, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 16 - May 18 bull leg.
• Initial firm resistance is at $81.98, the 50-day EMA.
• Elsewhere, precious metals have edged higher on Tuesday, with spot gold up by 0.4% to $4,030/oz and silver rising by 2.4% at $59.7/oz.
• Despite this, gold remains down by ~11% this month, while silver has fallen by over 20% in June, amid the easing of Middle East tensions and recent post-Fed strength of the US dollar.
• For gold, a bearish theme remains intact and recent gains have been corrective. Sights are on the $3,900.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance is $4,197.5, the 20-day EMA.