US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

Amena Bakr posted on X saying that Iran’s Press TV has an informed source who said that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz in the event of any fresh attacks on Iran

• Concurrently, explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas in the south of Iran, according to Mehr.

• RES 3: 133.32 - High Mar ‘26
• RES 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 21 
• RES 1: 128.42- High Jun 15 and the 50-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 126.56 @ 20:38 BST Jul 08
• SUP 1: 126.27 - Low May 20
• SUP 2: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999
• SUP 3: 121.49 - 50.0% retracement of the 1990 - 2020 major bull leg 

A bearish theme in JGB futures remains intact. The latest move down suggests a recent corrective cycle is over. A continuation lower would expose 126.27, the May 20 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 128.42, the Jun 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a possible S/T reversal and highlight a potential break of the 50-dma - also at 128.42.

• Hyperbole aside, risk sentiment was chilly early Wednesday after President Trump said the US/Iran ceasefire was over after the two traded strikes since Iran's recent attacks on oil tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump threatened additional retaliatory strikes against Iran may come tonight.
• Sentiment warmed slightly after Pres Trump said he didn't think the war with Iran "would start again" when asked about the latest conflict.
• Trump co-opted the NATO summit with many headlines throughout the day: Criticized NATO allies lack of response in Iran, Revives plan to buy Greenland, Says China is trying to take the Panama Canal and will not let it happen.
• The first notable aspect of the minutes to the FOMC's June meeting is that the format is unchanged from prior editions, despite some speculation that new Chair Warsh could push for immediate changes. That said there was a noteworthy if unsurprising shift in the tone of the minutes in a more hawkish direction even if the majority of the Committee didn't appear to have strong conviction on whether the next move would be a cut or a hike.
• The main highlight of the hawkish shift was the revelation (although perhaps unsurprising) that a contingent of "a few" (perhaps 3 members) saw a case for a hike at this meeting but agreed on the eventual rate hold. This is suggestive of a minority that may push for a hike as soon.
• Look ahead to Thursday: China CPI and PPI, ECB minutes and US jobless claims headline an otherwise light calendar, ECB Lagarde & Cipollone at Eurogroup Meeting, Brussels.