US TSYS: Lat eSOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

• RES 4: 187.47 High Jul 29 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 186.02 High Aug 21 and S/T bull trigger 
• RES 2: 184.57 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 183.16 Low Aug 12 
• PRICE: 179.49 @ 07:19 BST Sep 07
• SUP 1: 179.23/37 Low Sep 07 / Aug 03 and key support
• SUP 2: 178.82 High Oct 30 2025
• SUP 3: 178.48 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 177.98 Low Nov 11 2025  

A sharp pullback in EURJPY last week highlights a clear bearish threat and a potential reversal signal. The move down has exposed 179.23-37 as key support. Clearance of these levels would strengthen the bearish condition and highlight an important medium-term bearish development. Note that the short-term condition is oversold. Gains would be considered corrective and this would unwind the oversold position.

• RES 4: 161.28 Low Jul 10
• RES 3: 160.64 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 159.18/160.39 20-day EMA / High Sep 02
• RES 1: 158.03 Low Aug 20 
• PRICE: 154.37 @ 16:17 BST Sep 07
• SUP 1: 154.06 Low Sep 07 
• SUP 2: 154.00 Low Feb 23
• SUP 3: 153.55 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 152.10 Low Jan 27 

USDJPY blew through key support to hit new pullback lows of 154.06 Monday. With key support out of the way, market focus shifts to whether downside momentum can be sustained from here, or if support into the 154.00 figure or vol-band based support into 153.55 can slow the price action. 152.10 marks both the year-to-date low as well as the last time the 3.0% 10-dma envelope was pierced - and coincided with a bottoming-out in prices. 

• Crude prices have extended gains amid heightened concerns for prolonged Middle East supply disruption after US strikes on Iranian tankers, Iran’s threat of a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz, and a Houthi attack on Saudi refining infrastructure. WTI OCT 26 has risen around 1.1% to trade at 92.50$/bbl.
• The recent clear break of key resistance ($91.27, the May 18 high) confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and exposes $94.04 initially, a Fibonacci projection point.
• Iran’s foreign ministry said negotiations with Oman on the management of the Strait of Hormuz have reached their final stages and that an accord on a temporary Hormuz route could be reached in the coming days. A Qatari delegation was in Iran on Sunday to help de-escalate tensions.
• For precious metals, the moderate risk off tone has weighed on spot gold at the margin, with the yellow metal briefly trading down to $4,380/oz before bouncing back above $4,400.
• Moving average studies are in a bull mode position highlighting an uptrend. The bull trigger is $4696.8, the Aug 25 high.