OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Sep-11 16:15
* EUR/USD: Sep15 $1.1550-60(E1.6bln), $1.1600(E1.1bln), $1.1655(E960mln), $1.1750(E1.1bln), $1.200...
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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview 10Y Auction: Highest Yield Since January 2025
Aug-12 16:12
Treasury futures hold moderate gains, near mid-session range ahead of the $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CRF0) at the top of the hour. WI is currently 4.675%, 9.5bp cheap to last month's stop - looks to be the highest since the January 7, 2025 auction: 4.678%.
- July auction recap: Treasury futures pared losses (TYU6 -13.5 at 108-29 vs. 108-25.5 low) after the $39B 10Y note auction re-open (91282CQQ7) stopped through for the second consecutive sale: drawing 4.580% high yield vs. 4.585% WI; 2.59x bid-to-cover vs. 2.45x 5-auction average.
- Peripheral stats: indirect take-up climbed to 81.49% vs. 78.21% prior (69.29% 5-auction average); direct bidder take-up fell to 10.73% from 12.32% prior - well below a 5-auction average of 19.03%; primary dealer take-up fell to 7.78% vs. 9.46% prior.
| High yield | When-issued yield | Trade through (tail) | High - Median Spread | Bid-to-cover | Primary Dealer Percent | Indirect Percent | Direct Percent | Offering Amount | |
| 5 auction avg | 4.417% | 4.416% | (0.1) | 5.44 | 2.49 | 10.54% | 72.68% | 19.18% | |
| 8-Jul-26 | 4.580% | 4.585% | 0.5 | 5.0 | 2.59 | 7.78% | 81.49% | 10.73% | $39B |
| 10-Jun-26 | 4.538% | 4.540% | 0.2 | 5.8 | 2.57 | 9.46% | 78.21% | 12.32% | $39B |
| 12-May-26 | 4.468% | 4.464% | (0.4) | 5.5 | 2.40 | 11.98% | 63.95% | 24.07% | $42B |
| 8-Apr-26 | 4.282% | 4.280% | (0.2) | 5.2 | 2.43 | 10.80% | 65.32% | 23.88% | $39B |
| 11-Mar-26 | 4.217% | 4.211% | (0.6) | 5.7 | 2.45 | 12.72% | 74.45% | 12.83% | $39B |
US DATA: Regional Fed CPI Metrics At Or Below Pre-Iran War Y/Y Rates
Aug-12 16:03
- Regional Fed CPI metrics offered a slightly mixed take on latest changes in Y/Y inflation in July compared to the clearer cut moderation seen in core CPI (2.48% Y/Y, -0.11pp) and headline CPI (3.36% Y/Y, -0.17pp and nearly surprising lower).
- The Cleveland Fed’s main two measures were unchanged on the month although that did admittedly follow a more notable decline back in June.
- The median held at 2.7% Y/Y for a second month after a latest high of 2.85% in May, back to the 2.7% seen in March at what had been its lowest since Sep 2021.
- Recent monthly trends are running hotter however, with a six-month average at 3.0% annualized.
- The 16% trimmed mean held at 2.6% Y/Y for a second month after the 2.9% in May had been its highest since December. Pushing below the 2.64% in March, this is technically the lowest since Apr 2021 whilst a six-month average is only a little stronger at 2.7%.
- For a narrower take of price pressures, the Atlanta Fed’s sticky core CPI ex shelter saw a more notable cooling to 2.23% Y/Y in July from 2.40% in June and 2.9% in May. This is clearly below the 2.7% seen in Feb before the start of the Iran war and is back to its lowest since May 2025 before the impact of tariff policies.
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.755%(ALLOT 9.14%)
Aug-12 15:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.755%(ALLOT 9.14%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 31.11% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 6.62% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 62.27% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.16
