EGB FLOWS: Large Bund Put buyer

• USDJPY has moved away from overnight lows of 163.28, now just -0.15% on the session at 163.60. The trend condition remains bullish, with pullbacks short of the 20-day EMA (162.70) and the more important 50-day EMA (161.49) considered corrective.
• While modest in magnitude, the overnight yen strength could be attributed to news that GPIF has hired active domestic bond fund managers for the first time in 5 years. It may further signal an increased willingness to invest more in domestic markets, as hinted at by policymakers in recent weeks. That said, markets may require more explicit signals of repatriation/reallocation to meaningfully change the tide for the yen. Note that the JGB curve has also bull flattened on the session with 30-year yields down 5bps and 5s30s down 3.5bps. 
• AUDJPY is down 0.45% to 113.76, after Australian Q2 inflation data was a little lower than expected overnight. Support at the 20-day EMA (113.52) was pierced, but the cross has since moved back above this EMA.
• The FOMC decision is the primary global market focus today, ahead of the BOJ on Friday. All major banks expect the BOJ to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.0% on 30–31 July, while maintaining a hawkish bias. Most continue to expect the next 25bp hike in October, although some see September as a possibility if inflation or yen weakness intensifies. MNI’s BOJ preview is here

• RES 4: $89.374 - High May 13 
• RES 3: $78.898 - High May 19
• RES 2: $71.555 - High Jun 17 
• RES 1: $60.927/63.671 High Jul 22 / 50-day EMA         
• PRICE: $58.228 @ 08:33 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $54.778 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: $52.577 - 1.000 proj of the Mar 2 - 23 - May 13 price swing  
• SUP 3: $50.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $48.644 - Low Nov 21 ‘25 

The trend theme in Silver remains bearish and a fresh cycle low on Jul 17, reinforces this theme. Recently, a key support at $61.007, the Mar 23 low and a bear trigger, was cleared. The break highlights an important bearish development and confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Sights are on $52.577, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is seen at $63.671, the 50-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective.

• European Cash Equities opened higher inline with the Opening calls.
• Looking at Futures, seeing some better selling interest in the past few minutes, although nothing that stands out in terms of Volume size.
• For the Cash Stoxx 600, no surprises in seeing energy leading with the War in the Middle East set to continue longer.

Within the Stoxx600 (all Europe incl UK, Swiss, etc).

Outperformers:

• Oil&Gas +1.47%.
• Basic Resources +1.42%.
• H'hold & Personal +0.75%.
• Fincl Services +0.69%.
• Autos +0.54%.

Underperformers:

• Retail -0.73%.
• Travel & Leisure -0.69%.
• Food & Bev -0.58%.
• Insurance -0.53%.
• Technology -0.51%.