SWEDEN: Labour Market Still Weakening According To PES Data
Dec-12 07:37
The Swedish labour market continued to gradually loosen in November, according to Public Employment Service data. This underscores the Riksbank’s guidance for further rate cuts in December and H1 2025, even as inflation has tracked above the September MPR projection in recent months (see our earlier note for details).
- The unemployment claims rate ticked up to 7.0% in November (vs 6.9% prior). This was the 16th consecutive month that the 3mma of the claims rate has moved higher.
- On the demand side, vacancies fell below 90k for the first month since March 2024 (and before that, February 2021), 24% lower than prevailing levels a year ago.
- This meant the vacancy to unemployment claims ratio fell to 0.24, its lowest since early 2021.
- However, the 3mma of redundancy notices did fall for the second month to 5.5k.
- November LFS unemployment data is due tomorrow morning, which will provide another piece of the labour market puzzle ahead of the Riksbank decision next Thursday.
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USD: The Dollar extends gains into the European session
Nov-12 07:36
- It's another positive overnight session for the Dollar, but the Currency is still seeing upside continuation across the board going into the European Govie open.
- The Greenback prints fresh highs against the EUR, GBP, PLN, SEK, CAD. CZK, CHF, SGD, ZAR, NOK.
- US Yield are edging higher, and Risk is Off in early trade.
- The Pound was the worst performer going into the UK Data, and still is the worst performer since, now down 0.44% with Cable looking to break through the 1.2800 figure.
- In terms of MNI Tech, a clear break through the figure, would open to 1.2762 Low Aug 13.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
Nov-12 07:33
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 6053.25 High Nov 11
- PRICE: 6025.25 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 5927.25 High Oct 17 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 5863.50/5724.25 20-day EMA / Low Nov 4
- SUP 3: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 13
Bullish conditions in S&P E-Minis remain intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, Nov 4 low. The latest rally resulted in a breach of the bull trigger at 5927.25, Oct 17 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. The 6000.0 psychological handle has been pierced. Sights are on 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 5927.25, the Oct 17 high.
UK DATA: Labour market data broadly in line with expectations
Nov-12 07:29
- Looking at private regular AWE in more detail: There was an upward revision to the single month reading for August from 4.51%Y/Y to 4.59%Y/Y (leading to the 3-months to August being revised up marginally from 4.83%Y/Y from 4.81%Y/Y). The September single month print came in at 4.89%Y/Y - which with the exception of the low August print, is the lowest Y/Y single month reading since April 2022 - but more in line with the readings seen between May-July which were between 4.94-4.98%Y/Y. Looking at this individual cohort, however, there is very little progress here. On the comparable single month figures We have moved from 4.98%Y/Y in June to 4.89%Y/Y in September over a 3-month period.
- Looking at private AWE in a couple of different ways: in M/M terms (which we don't like because you are comparing different cohorts), the reading is 0.47% - the highest since April. But looking at momentum (3m/3m) it has fallen to 4.21% annualised in September from 4.71% in August, and the lowest since January.
- So there is something for everyone in the private AWE data here. The BOE forecast for the 3-months to September was 4.75%Y/Y - so today's print was 0.14ppt higher than expected. That's not really a huge deviation.
- The total pay numbers and public sector pay numbers we don't pay too much attention to here - they are skewed by one-off payments and don't really give much predictive power.
- On the unemployment side, there was very little in terms of revisions. The number of 16+ unemployed jumped by 100k from 1.386mln to 1.486mln while the total number in employment fell by 59k. This increased the unemployment rate to 4.27% from 3.99% without a change in the economic inactivity rate. But given the issues with the LFS survey - this could well be a spurious move.
- So to sum up - wage data marginally stronger, quantities data marginally weaker, but this shouldn't really change anyone's voting intentions.
