US MIDTERMS: KY-06 Win Would Likely Foreshadow Strong Democratic Performance

Disappointing US payroll data weighed on the greenback on Friday with the USD BBDXY down 0.2%. Aussie outperformed with GBP close behind. Kiwi was also an outperformer. There were only 29k US new jobs in September below the 90k consensus while the unemployment rate rose 0.1pp to 4.2% when it was expected to be unchanged. Average earnings were also 0.1pp lower than August and forecast.

• AUDUSD traded around 0.6940 before the data and then spiked to 0.6976, holding below initial resistance at 0.995, before settling around 0.6950. It finished 0.4% higher at 0.6956. The pair started last week around 0.7020 but began trending lower following RBA Governor Bullock’s press conference on Tuesday. While she stated that the Board will hike again if needed, she also commented that policy is believed to be restrictive driving an unwinding of long positions.
• The pair fell to 0.6946 in early Monday APAC trading but then recovered to 0.6959 and is so far flat on the day. Technicals signal that the downtrend remains intact with initial support at 0.6904.
• NZDUSD is slightly higher today at 0.5619 after falling to 0.5610. It was 0.2% higher on Friday at 0.5615 after spiking to 0.5643.
• AUDNZD is currently down 0.1% to 1.2380 after reaching 1.2396 earlier on Monday. The cross rose 0.2% to 1.2386 Friday, close to the intraday high at 1.2400. It traded in a narrow range last week of 1.2296/1.2438.
• There is a public holiday in much of Australia (NSW, SA, Qld and ACT) Monday. Australia’s MI September inflation gauge and NZ’s ANZ September commodity prices print today.

• RES 3: 133.32 - High Mar ‘26
• RES 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 21 
• RES 1: 127.07/128.42- 50-dma (cont) / High Jun 15 
• PRICE: 124.53 @ 17:21 BST Oct 02
• SUP 1: 124.00 - Low Sep 2
• SUP 2: 123.60 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 121.49 - 50.0% retrace of the 1990 - 2020 major bull leg 

Downside pressure resumed in JGB futures on the back of the inflationary pressures evident in the recent US PPI and CPI data and as markets settle after the BoJ rate hike. For now, the trend structure remains bearish and the latest downleg resulted in the contract piercing support at 125.91, the Aug 17 low. This move lower confirms a continuation of the primary downtrend. Key near-term resistance is 128.42, the Jun 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle is required to signal a short-term reversal.

"*NASDAQ 100 FUTURES RISE 0.3% AS JOBS DATA EASES FED HIKE BETS" - BBG