RUSSIA: Kremlin Spox-Leaders' Meeting Only Possible After Talks

• MNI: UK CBI APR DIST TRADE REPORTED SALES -8
• UK CBI APR DIST TRADE EXPECTED SALES -33

• In the equity space, the corrective bull cycle in S&P E-Minis that started on Apr 7, remains in play. The contract traded higher last week and breached a number of important short-term resistance points. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced 5528.75, the Apr 10 high. The next key resistance is 5622.38, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen a bull theme. Initial key support lies at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. A break would be bearish. First support lies at 5355.25, the Apr 24 low.
• EUROSTOXX 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 5101.10. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a continuation of the corrective uptrend. This would open 5165.00 next, the Apr 3 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 4812.00, the Apr 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 4959.00, the Apr 23 low. 

On Friday, Danske Bank recommended paying the Sep25-Mar26-Sep26 NOK FRA butterfly spread, after taking profit on previously held short-term NOK received positions. They entered the trade at an indicative mid of -41bps, with a soft target of -15bps and a hard stop-loss of -54bps. 

• “We think the short-end received case has run a little too far, which in isolation also reduces the attractiveness of NOK steepeners…markets are now close to fully pricing a cut by June and an accumulative three cuts by year-end and 105bp by March 2026”.
• “Should the global situation re-escalate NB would stand ready to cut similar to March 2020. However, with the latest Trump administration news flow and the weakening of the NOK FX we no longer like the risk/reward of our received positions”
• “The [butterfly] trade is a direct expression of our view that it is difficult to price in more cumulative NB easing into the March 2026 FRA contract unless the global situation deteriorates further”.
• “The biggest risk for the position is if the global economy keeps up but enters a global recession this autumn”