ASIA STOCKS: KOSPI Gives Back Early Gains as NIKKEI Reaches New Highs.
Sep-11 2025 04:59
The KOSPI has benefitted of late on the hope that the President may drop a plan to lower the threshold for capital gains on stock holdings. The President today said today he did not see the point in holding onto this proposal, yet fell short of dropping it and instead handed the decision over to the National Assembly. In China pharmas are under pressure after an article in the New York Times suggested the Trump administration is considering restrictions on medicines from Asian nations.
- The NIKKEI was up again today, by +0.85% and at 44,213 has reached a new all time high.
- The onshore /offshore dived was clear today as the Hang Seng declined, whilst the onshore major bourses delivered strong gains. The HSI is down -0.29%, CSI 300 +1.77%, Shanghai +1.12% and Shenzhen +1.92%.
- The TAIEX in Taiwan posted modest gains of +0.25% as it also posted new highs of 25,248.
- The KOSPI gave back some of the earlier gains, yet remains up +0.40% Thursday.
- The FTSE Malay KLCI is one of the few of the major bourses declining, with falls of -0.52%.
- The Jakarta Composite is up strongly by +0.79%, yet remains lower for the week.
- The NIFTY 50 has done nothing so far today, seemingly taking a breather after six days of gains.
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BONDS: NZGBS: Subdued Session Ahead Of US CPI Data
Aug-12 2025 04:51
NZGBs closed little changed after trading in narrow ranges on a data-light day.
- Cash US tsys are little changed in today's Asia-Pac session ahead of today's US CPI data.
- (MNI) The CPI report for July is released on Tuesday Aug 12, at 0830ET. Consensus sees core CPI inflation at a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M in June and unrounded analyst estimates broadly echo this with a median 0.32% M/M. It would mark a further acceleration from 0.23% M/M in June and 0.13% M/M in May for its fastest pace since January, with the latest firming seen coming from core goods inflation doubling to 0.4% M/M.
- Swap rates are unchanged.
- With the next RBNZ meeting approaching (August 20), this week contains a number of high frequency releases that the MPC monitors and should give a sense for how the economy began Q3.
- July card spending is out tomorrow and while it is off its lows, growth has remained soft. There could be some payback in the month following the 0.5% m/m rise in June.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is unchanged across meetings. 23bps of easing is priced for August, with a cumulative 40bps by November 2025.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond and NZ$250mn of the 2.75% Apr-37 bond.
AUSSIE BONDS: RBA Cuts As Expected, Limited Reaction
Aug-12 2025 04:49
ACGBs (YM -0.5 & XM -1.0) are moderately richer after the RBA cut the cash rate by 25bps to 3.60%.
- The Board noted that inflation continues to moderate toward the 2–3% range. Trimmed mean inflation fell to 2.7% and headline inflation to 2.1% in the June quarter. Domestic demand is gradually recovering, household incomes have risen, and labour market conditions, though easing, remain tight.
- With 75bps of cuts this year, the Board remains cautious but ready to respond to shifts in global or domestic conditions, maintaining its focus on price stability and full employment.
- Cash ACGBs are 1-2bps richer after the RBA decision, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -2bps.
- Swap rates are 2-4bps lower after the decision, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
- The bills strip has richened since the decision but sits flat on the day.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings after the decision, mid-2026 leading. A 25bp rate cut in August was given a 97% probability today. A cumulative 36bps of easing priced by year-end.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Q2 Wage Price Index.
- The AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond tomorrow and A$1000mn of the 2.75% 2 1 November 2029 bond on Friday.
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD Dips In Reaction To Cut, Focus Turns To Press Conference
Aug-12 2025 04:47
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6500 - 0.6526 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6510, -0.05%. Risk has traded a little higher in our session, E-minis +15%, NQU5 +0.15%. The AUD/USD has moved a couple of spreads lower in reaction to the RBA cutting rates by 25bps. Focus will now turn to the press conference, then the US CPI tonight.
- “ RBA Says: Will Be Attentive to Data, Evolving Assessment of Risks, Sees Risk Households, Firms Delay Spending, Policy Well Placed to Respond Decisively to Global Factors, Forecasts Assume Trade Concerns Weigh on Aust. Inflation, Trade Policy Expected to Have Adverse Effect on Global Eco.” - BBG
- "Australian Consumer Confidence Dn 1.3 Pts Last Week - ANZ Roy Morgan" - DJ
- AUSTRALIA DATA: Business Outlook May Have Turned. NAB’s measure of business confidence can be volatile but it has been trending higher since April and printed at 7 in July up from 5 in June and -2 in March signalling an improvement in how firms see the outlook. Business conditions moderated to 5, but are still above every month this year except June, which was revised down 2 points to 7. The activity components moderated in July but generally remained at levels above May.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6565(AUD908m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6575(AUD646m Aug 13), 0.6600(AUD1.25b Aug 14) - BBG
- CFTC Data shows Asset managers added to their shorts -60729(Last -49183), the Leveraged community added very slightly to their own shorts -13997(Last -13823).
- AUD/JPY - Asia-Pac range 96.37 - 96.83, Asia is trading around 96.60. The pair has bounced nicely and is testing its first resistance around the 96.50 area. There should be sellers around here initially, a sustained break below 94.50/95.00 is needed to signal a deeper move lower or a break above 97.50 would reinstate the momentum higher.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
