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RBA-dated OIS pricing is 8-16bps softer across meetings today, with late 2025 leading. 

• Markets continue to be hit by the ongoing trade-related pullback in risk appetite, although some have begun to stabilise at lower levels due to selling fatigue and profit-taking, including risk-sensitive AUD and oil prices.
• US equity futures are down sharply but also off their intraday lows and yields are trending higher.
• Some Asian countries have said today that they will take steps to stabilise markets if needed and Japan has said it will speak with the US.
• A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 52% probability, with a cumulative 117bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%).
• Earlier in the session, a 50bp rate cut in May is given an 80% probability, with a cumulative 133bps of easing priced by year-end.

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Prior

Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

Markets continue to be hit by the ongoing trade-related pullback in risk appetite, although some have begun to stabilise at lower levels due to selling fatigue and profit taking, including risk-sensitive AUD and oil prices. US equity futures are down sharply but also off their intraday lows and yields are trending higher. Some Asian countries have said today that they will take steps to stabilise markets if needed and Japan has said it will speak with the US.

• Equities are lower across the region with the TAIEX (-9.6%), it was closed Thursday/Friday, and Hang Seng underperforming (-8.6%). The KOSPI is down 4.6% but 1.6% off today’s low.
• The S&P e-mini is down 2.7% but earlier it was 5.4% lower. The Nasdaq is 3.5% weaker. following -6.2%.
• The USD index continues to benefit from risk aversion and is up 0.3% after 1.0% on Friday. While US Treasury yields are below Friday’s close, they have begun to trend higher again.
• AUDUSD fell to 0.5933 earlier but hasn’t been able to hold breaks below 60c and is currently around 0.6016 to be down 0.4% today. Australian bond yields are lower today but off today’s low.
• Risk-averse yen and Swiss franc continue to benefit from the current market mood with USDJPY down 0.2% to 146.65 and USDCHF -0.3% to 0.8578.
• Commodities are pressured by concerns that increased trade protectionism will weigh on global growth and thus demand. WTI crude is down 2.8% today to $60.26 but off the earlier low of $59.38. Copper is now 0.4% higher, while iron ore is approaching $101/t after falling briefly below $99/t.
• Later the Fed’s Kugler speaks on inflation and the ECB’s Cipollone appears. US February consumer credit, German February trade/IP, February euro area retail sales and Canadian BoC business survey print.

MNI discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Australian economy. 
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