EM ASIA CREDIT: Khazanah Capital: Palm Oil Exports numbers

With markets broadly positive across the region, Taiwan's TAIEX was the outperformer as TSMC shares surged.   TSMC shares were up almost 4% on hopes that there could be some reduction of curbs on techs from the ongoing trade talks as the US indicated it would remove restrictions in exchange for rare earth shipments.  

• Most of China's major bourses were up with the Hang Seng leading the way.  The Hang Seng is up +0.33%, following yesterday's close up +1.63%.  The CSI 300 gained just +0.16% today whilst the Shanghai Comp rose +0.11%.   Shenzhen however went the other way, down -0.25%.  
• The TAIEX in Taiwan is up +2.11% following on from yesterday's gain of +0.60%.
• The KOSPI is moderately higher by +0.22%, to be up over 6% in the last five trading sessions.  
• The FTSE Malay KLCI rose a mere +0.14%, similar to yesterday's modest gains of +0.17%
• The Jakarta Composite is very strong, up +1.30% having been closed Friday and Monday.  
• The FTSE Straits Times in Singapore is down -0.11% and the PSEi in the Philippines is down -0.55%.  
• The NIFTY 50 has had a good start to the day up +0.22% following on from yesterday's gains of +0.40%.  

Oil has held onto gains from recent trading during today’s APAC session with prices slightly higher as the market watches the second day of US-China trade talks to take place today. WTI is up 0.2% to $65.39/bbl but off the intraday high of $65.66. It remains above resistance at $64.86. Brent is 0.3% higher at $67.21/bbl following a peak of $67.40, approaching resistance at $67.73, a Fibonacci retracement level. The USD index is up 0.2%.

• Crude reacted sharply to the announcement of US reciprocal tariffs on fears of their impact on global energy demand. Thus it is watching the US-China trade talks closely and is currently mildly optimistic following US Commerce Secretary Lutnick describing negotiations so far as “fruitful”.
• The other issue markets are watching is US-Iran nuclear negotiations. The UN said that Iran’s stockpiling of almost weapons grade uranium needs to be monitored and addressed. There is a UN watchdog meeting this week in Vienna followed by one between the US and Iran in Oman on Sunday, according to Iranian officials.
• Later US May NFIB small business optimism and UK April/May labour market data are released. ECB’s Donnery and Buch appear. The focus remains on Wednesday’s May US CPI data but also Thursday’s US long-dated Treasury auction given fiscal concerns.

• RES 4: 132.00 Round number resistance               
• RES 3: 131.85 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger     
• RES 2: 131.50 High May 7 
• RES 1: 131.47 High Jun 5                       
• PRICE: 130.40 @ 05:39 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 130.12 Jun 5 low              
• SUP 2: 129.30/13 Low May 22 / 15 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 128.97 Low May 14  
• SUP 4: 128.40 Low Apr 9 

Bund futures are unchanged. The latest pullback still appears corrective - for now - and the trend condition remains bullish. The recovery that started May 14 suggests the move down between Apr 22 - May 14, has been a correction. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 131.85, the Apr 22 high. Key short-term support to watch is 128.97, the May 14 low. First support lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low.