US DATA: KC Fed Services Activity Remains Subdued, But Inflation Doesn't

The House of Representatives is expected to take up a bipartisan Senate-passed measure to fund the federal government through December 11, when the chamber returns from recess next week, according to Bloomberg Government. 

• According to the report, the funding measure is likely to be considered under suspension of rules, a process that will fast-track the bill with a bipartisan two-thirds majority, sidestepping the need for unanimous support from Republican lawmakers. Suspension of rules would avoid potentially fraught negotiations between House GOP leadership and conservative members of the Republican conference, including an ongoing dispute over a hemp ban.
• Bloomberg notes, “The government would shut down in October without congressional action, something leaders in both parties have said they’re eager to avoid for before midterm elections. The suspension maneuver telegraphs confidence from GOP leaders that Democrats will support the funding bill.”
• Prediction markets see little risk of a government shutdown on October 1, when funding for fiscal year 2026 expires. According to Polymarket, the risk of a shutdown is slightly above 10% implied probability, down from 50% shortly before the Senate struck a compromise deal on a clean funding extension.
• The House will return from recess on August 31, with the Senate to follow on September 14. 

• MNI interviews the head of debt management at Finland's State Treasury -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

Reuters reports comments from the head of the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran, Mohammad Eslami, speaking to state media. Eslami claims "Iran is still in a wartime situation; its nuclear sites have not been secured for inspection." Eslami: "The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) cannot ask to inspect Iran's nuclear sites until it draws up a protocol." Eslami: "Trump's threats to bomb [alleged secret Iranian nuclear sites] show how international organisations are the pawns of the US and Israel."

• Eslami's comments come after IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi met with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Washington, D.C., where the two discussed nuclear non-proliferation issues, most notably the situation in Iran and Grossi's high-profile visit to Syria earlier in August.
• Iran has refused the IAEA access to its nuclear sites since the launch of US/Israeli strikes in February, with The New Arab reporting in July, "In a UN report presented at the briefing, the IAEA reported a "significant deterioration" in its awareness of Iran's nuclear facilities following the US-Israeli attack on Iran. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei ruled out granting IAEA access to its facilities and called the report "meaningless and without any legal basis"."