US PREVIEW: July Retail Sales Preview: Past The Peak But Still Positive (1/2)

• Risk-off start to the week, in addition to "running the strait", Trump reinstating Blockade against Iran through the Strait of Hormuz (later upgraded to all Iranian ports) while charging 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World,” Trump said Monday on social media.
• Tsys gap to new session lows on latest from Fed Gov Waller at NYABE conference the Fed "may need to consider near-term rate hikes" to combat sticky inflation: "If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term". See the full speech here.
• Headline CPI is expected to flip strongly into deflation on a sequential seasonally-adjusted basis in June, with MNI’s analyst median unrounded expectation for a 24-month low -0.20% M/M after +0.47% in May. The Y/Y headline measure is set to pull back to 3.8% from May’s 4.25% which is expected to have represented the peak and only reading above 4% for the foreseeable future as energy prices pull back.
• TYU6 trades -12 to session low of 108-20.5 (yld +.0483 at 4.6095%). Key support and the bear trigger is 108-08+, the May 19 low.
• Projected rate hike pricing gaining vs. late Friday levels (*) Sep near fully pricing first 25bp hike: Jul'26 at +10.8bp (+8.4bp), Sep'26 at +24.9bp (+21.6bp), Oct'26 at +32.3bp (+27.4bp), Dec'26 +42.7bp (+37.1bp).
• Stocks not taking kindly to the comment either: SPX emini -61.0 at 7559.00. Reminder, the latest equity earnings cycle kicks off Tuesday with Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reporting.

• RES 3: 96.064 - 61.8% retracement Oct ‘25 - Mar Downleg (cont) 
• RES 2: 95.925 - High Jan 9 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 95.671 - 38.2% retracement Oct ‘25 - Mar Downleg (cont)
• PRICE: 95.505 @ 20:11 BST Jul 13
• SUP 1: 95.409/365 - Trendline from the Mar 23 low / Low Jun 09
• SUP 2: 95.195 - Low Apr 30
• SUP 3: 94.631 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

The uptrend in Aussie 3-yr futures that started Mar 23 remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Note that MA studies on the continuation chart are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension of the corrective cycle would open 95.404, a trendline support drawn from the Mar 23 low on the continuation chart. For bulls, a break of 95.671, 38.2% of the Oct’25 - Mar bear leg, would strengthen a bull theme.

IRAN'S TASNIM SAYS SEVERAL 'VIOLATING' VESSELS WERE TARGETED IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ - RTRS