UK: Jones rules out running in leadership race
"*UK CHIEF SECRETARY TO PM JONES TELLS SKY NEWS IN INTERVIEW" - BBG "*DARREN JONES RULES OUT RUNNING...
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GBPUSD TECHS: Recovery Extends
- RES 4: 1.3658 High May 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3574 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 18 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3522 61.8% retracement of the May 1 - 18 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3490 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.3486 @ 06:26 BST May 25
- SUP 1: 1.3375/3303 Low May 20 / 18 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3277 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3212 Low Apr 7
- SUP 4: 1.3159 Low Mar 31 and a key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective - for now. Note that a bullish engulfing candle pattern on May 18 highlighted a short-term reversal. This bull cycle remains in play - for now - and the pair has traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would open 1.3522, the 61.8% retracement of the May 1 - 18 bear leg. A reversal would refocus attention on key support at 1.3303, the May 18 low.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 26-May | 0001 | May | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 26-May | 1100 | May | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 28-May | 0905 | --- | BOE Breeden Speech at Capital Markets Association |
| 28-May | 1640 | --- | BOE Breeden Fireside Chat, Capital Markets Conference |
| 29-May | 0730 | --- | DMO to release FQ2 gilt issuance operations schedule |
| 29-May | 0920 | --- | BOE Bailey Speech at Reykjavik Economic Conference |
| 30-May | 1040 | --- | BOE Mann Panel on Central Bank Independence |
| 31-May | 1330 | --- | BOE Greene Panel on Stablecoins and MonPol |
| 01-Jun | 0930 | May | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 02-Jun | 0930 | Apr | BOE Lending to Individuals / M4 |
| 02-Jun | 1500 | --- | BOE Bailey Testifies at Lords Econ Affairs Committee |
| 02-Jun | 1600 | --- | BOE Greene Speech on Inflation/Energy Shock (Text) |
| 03-Jun | 0930 | May | S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (Final) |
| 04-Jun | 0930 | May | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 04-Jun | 1640 | --- | BOE Bailey Speech at Investment Association Conference |
| 05-Jun | 0930 | May | BOE Decision Maker Panel |
| 05-Jun | 1440 | --- | BOE Dhingra Speech at UCL Macro Monitor Launch Event |
| 05-Jun | 1900 | --- | BOE Bailey at Wealth of Nations Anniversary Event |
THAILAND: Trade Deficit Soars On Energy & Tech Imports
There was a sharp widening in Thailand’s customs trade deficit in April due to the value of imports of oil and gas soaring due to a combination of higher prices and volumes because of Iran War and supply shortages due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The deficit printed at $10.02bn, well above expectations, after $3.34bn in March as imports jumped 45% y/y while exports grew 23.1% y/y. The data didn’t worry the baht as optimism on a US-Iran deal saw an improvement in risk appetite and so USDTHB is 0.8% lower at 32.43 today.
- There was a 169% y/y rise in crude imports as prices exceeded $100/bbl and Thailand looked to improve fuel security. Natural gas shipments also jumped. As a result, it recorded the largest deficit since data began in 1993.
- The jump in merchandise imports was not just due to higher fuel prices but also AI-related capital goods.
- April merchandise trade and current account data are released May 29.
Thailand customs trade balance US$mn 3-mth moving average
Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG
