US DATA: Jobless Claims Maintain Relatively Healthy Levels

• USDJPY has been making slow but steady progress higher in recent sessions, with today’s price action indicative of current sentiment; that long USDJPY remains a popular fundamental trade with very obvious attached caution related to the high likelihood of renewed verbal warnings and actual intervention.
• This is highlighted by the fact USDJPY is trading just 10 pips of shy of what many in the market believe to be the MoF’s line in the sand at 160. While a test won’t necessarily prompt an immediate response, the close proximity to cycle highs at 160.72 will be alarming for officials. One could argue that looking at Citi’s broad real effective exchange rate, new cycle lows may already be ringing those alarm bells.
• BOJ Governor Ueda’s speech on Wednesday has received attention, given there could be clear hints relating to the BOJ’s bias into the June meeting. However, the market may be more sensitive to any comments from the nation’s top currency official, Atsushi Mimura. As a reminder, it was the “final” warning from Mimura that preceded record levels of actual intervention, just hours after the remarks.

Roi Kais at Israel's Kan news agency reports on X, "Hezbollah's Al-Manar channel reports that Hezbollah rejected an American proposal for a ceasefire in Lebanon in two stages: In the first stage, a ceasefire in the Dahiyeh district in Beirut and northern Israel, and in the second stage, a comprehensive ceasefire within 48-72 hours. According to the report, both Hezbollah and Amal adhere to their positions that a comprehensive ceasefire must be established with the withdrawal of all IDF forces from southern Lebanon." (via translation) 

• The report, coupled with continued fighting in southern Lebanon today, throws doubt on US President Donald Trump's claim that he had negotiated a ceasefire extension with both Israel and Hezbollah.
• Reports from media outlets earlier appeared to support Trump's claim: "The Lebanese Embassy in Washington said Hezbollah had accepted the terms of a US proposal for a “mutual cessation of attacks,” which would also block Israel from attacking Beirut," per NBC.
• CNN notes that "high-stakes talks" between Israel and Lebanon got underway at the US State Department several hours ago, noting that, "On Friday, military delegations from Israel and Lebanon launched working-level security talks at the Pentagon."
• Note: The US-brokered talks in Washington, DC, do not involve direct participation from representatives of Hezbollah. 

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