IRAN: Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirms plans to hold a regional meeting [...]

SPX: 7,770.2 (+0.5%); DJIA: 53,961 (+0.3%/+169pts); NDX: 29,882.1 (+1.2%).

• As noted above, core goods inflation was stronger than expected on the month at 0.20% M/M (MNI cons 0.10).
• Medical care goods inflation was one particularly weak component (-0.6% M/M vs a median expectation of -0.1 from admittedly a small sample) with the surprise partly offset by used cars (0.4% vs 0.3) and apparel (0.1% vs 0.0).
• However, our measure of median core goods inflation showed broader-based goods inflation which helped explain the stronger print despite the medical care hit.
• This median accelerated to 0.32% M/M in July after a particularly tepid five months averaging 0.01% M/M for its strongest since the 0.44% in January with start-of-year price resets.
• There’s a chance it’s finally showing some spillover from supply chain pressures as evidenced by the NY Fed’s GSCPI earlier in the year, although this series has since cooled somewhat.
• Bear in mind though that this is based on a number of NSA series, by necessity when looking at this level of detail, and for now is only one month of stronger goods pressure. Indeed, January's uptick turned out to be a one-off in contrast to the more sustained readings averaging 0.3% M/M through May-Sep 2025. 

• RES 4: 7900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 7892.00 1.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 15 - 26 price swing
• RES 2: 7849.93 1.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 15 - 26 price swing
• RES 1: 7820.25 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 7780.75 @ 13:34 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 7632.00 High Jul 16   
• SUP 2: 7608.67 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 7535.97 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 7324.00 Low Jun 29  

The latest pause in S&P E-Minis appears to be a flag - a trend continuation pattern - reinforcing the current bullish theme. 7693.75, the Jun 2 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. A continuation higher would open 7849.93, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 7621.89, the 20-day EMA.