IRAN: IRAN'S DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS NO TALKS WITH U.S. HAVE BEEN HELD

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• 07/06 $500M #KT Corp 3.5Y +55
• 07/06 $500M #CIBC 60.5NC5.5 6.75%
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• 07/06 $Benchmark Energy Transfer LP 30NC5 6.55%, 30NC10 6.7%

Progressive former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed is favoured to win the Democratic primary election for the Michigan Senate race, after early frontrunner state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) suspended her campaign on Sunday amid a drop in her polling.

• McMorrow’s exit sets up another confrontation between a rising anti-establishment bloc and the moderate wing of the party, represented in the Michigan race by Rep Haley Stevens (D-MI). If El-Sayed secures the nomination, it would mean that outsiders are on the ballot in two must-win Senate races for Democrats. The other being the Maine Senate race, where Graham Platner secured the nomination over Governor Janet Mills (D-ME). McMorrow’s withdrawal ensures that a primary debate tomorrow will now only feature Stevens and El-Sayed. The primary will take place on August 4.
• The Hill reports, “Whether Stevens or El-Sayed will clearly benefit more from McMorrow’s departure from the race is unclear. Minimal polling has been conducted evaluating voters’ second preference in the primary or who they would support in a hypothetical two-person race…
• “El-Sayed has been riding momentum recently, leading Stevens by about 8 points in Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) polling average. A few polls have also shown him leading in a hypothetical general election matchup against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), the likely GOP nominee.” 

Figure 1: Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Source: Polymarket

Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

• ERU6 97.5625/97.6875cs, bought for 4.75 and 5 in 10k
• SFIU6 96.10/96.15/96.20/96.25c condor, sold at 2.25 in 3k
• SFIV6 96.05/96.15/96.30c fly, bought for 2 in 5k
• SFIZ6 96.15/96.45cs, sold at 7.5 in 5k
• SFIH7 96.40/96.80cs, bought for 4.75 and 5 in 25k
• SFIH7 96.35/96.75cs, bought for 6 in 4k
• SFIM7 98.00 calls paper paid 1.5 on 17K